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Using Bayesian method to estimate the parameters of Exponential Growth Model with Autocorrelation problem and different values of parameter of correlation-using simulation
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We have studied Bayesian method in this paper by using the modified exponential growth model, where this model is more using to represent the growth phenomena. We focus on three of prior functions (Informative, Natural Conjugate, and the function that depends on previous experiments) to use it in the Bayesian method. Where almost of observations for the growth phenomena are depended on one another, which in turn leads to a correlation between those observations, which calls to treat such this problem, called Autocorrelation, and to verified this has been used Bayesian method.

The goal of this study is to knowledge the effect of Autocorrelation on the estimation by using Bayesian method. For verifying the goal has been used the simulation technique where has been generated random samples with known parameters and different values of correlation. It has been shown from the computational results that all result has been affected by the values of correlation coefficients used to generate the data, and there is a clear proof and regularity of the sensitivity for Bayesian estimators by Autocorrelation with increase the size of sample.

 

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Elements of the economic intelligence of the organization and its role in achieving economic growth: Applied research
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   The aim of the research is to demonstrate of the relation and the influence of the components of economic intelligence (strategic alertness, information security policy, impact policy) in achieving of economic growth (creativity, competitiveness, quality improvement). The questionnaire was used as a main tool for selected sample. Answers analyzed by using the statistical program (SPSS)  to calculate the arithmetic mean, standard deviation, weight percentage, correlation, F test, and Squared factor (R2).

 The research derived its importance from the distinguished role of information systems in the work of industrial companies, and its impact toward achieving economic growth rates in its various activities. T

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The problem of elevating the status of values in scienceStudy in economic thought and macro analysis
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ان من اهم القضايا التي تثيرها المعرفة البشرية في تجلياتها، وتعبيراتها المفاهيمية، تكمن في مدى تأصلها وانتمائها الى البنى والتشكيلات الموضوعية (في مستوياتها التاريخية) التي تسعى لتفسيرها وادراكها ومضاهاتها. فالينبوع الذي يغرف منه الفكر مادته هو الكيان الاجتماعي المتموضع خارج الوعي والايدولوجيا.

ان قدرة الوعي على ادراك الواقع الموضوعي بخصائصه العامة يشكل الشرط  الضروري لاكتساب الوعي ل

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
Civil And Environmental Engineering
Prediction of the Delay in the Portfolio Construction Using Naïve Bayesian Classification Algorithms
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Abstract<p>Projects suspensions are between the most insistent tasks confronted by the construction field accredited to the sector’s difficulty and its essential delay risk foundations’ interdependence. Machine learning provides a perfect group of techniques, which can attack those complex systems. The study aimed to recognize and progress a wellorganized predictive data tool to examine and learn from delay sources depend on preceding data of construction projects by using decision trees and naïve Bayesian classification algorithms. An intensive review of available data has been conducted to explore the real reasons and causes of construction project delays. The results show that the postpo</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Effective Computational Methods for Solving the Jeffery-Hamel Flow Problem
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In this paper, the effective computational method (ECM) based on the standard monomial polynomial has been implemented to solve the nonlinear Jeffery-Hamel flow problem. Moreover, novel effective computational methods have been developed and suggested in this study by suitable base functions, namely Chebyshev, Bernstein, Legendre, and Hermite polynomials. The utilization of the base functions converts the nonlinear problem to a nonlinear algebraic system of equations, which is then resolved using the Mathematica®12 program. The development of effective computational methods (D-ECM) has been applied to solve the nonlinear Jeffery-Hamel flow problem, then a comparison between the methods has been shown. Furthermore, the maximum

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Simulation of Temperature Distribution in TIG Spot Welds of (Al-Mg) Alloy Using Finite Element Method
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      This research concern to analyse and simulate the temperature distribution in the spot welding joints using tungsten arc welding shielded with inert gas (TIG Spot) for the aluminum-magnesium alloy type  (5052-O).

      The effect of and the quantity of the heat input that enter the weld zone has been investigated welding current, welding time and arc length on temperature distribution. The finite element method (by utilizing programme ANSYS 5.4) is presented  the temperature distribution in a circular weld pool and the weld pool penetration (depth of welding) through the top sheet ,across the interface into the lower sheet forming a weld spot.   &nbs

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Study the Effects of Machining Parameters on Surface Roughness for Free Form Surface Using Taguchi Method
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The surface finish of the machining part is the mostly important characteristics of products quality and its indispensable customers’ requirement. Taguchi robust parameters designs for optimizing for surface finish in turning of 7025 AL-Alloy using carbide cutting tool has been utilized in this paper. Three machining variables namely; the machining speeds (1600, 1900, and 2200) rpm, depth of cut (0.25, 0.50, 0.75) mm and the feed rates (0.12, 0.18, 0.24) mm/min utilized in the experiments. The other variables were considered as constants. The mean surface finish was utilized as a measuring of surface quality. The results clarified that increasing the speeds reduce the surface roughness, while it rises with increasing the depths and fee

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 31 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of Robust Circular S and Circular Least Squares Estimators for Circular Regression Model using Simulation
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In this paper, the Monte-Carlo simulation method was used to compare the robust circular S estimator with the circular Least squares method in the case of no outlier data and in the case of the presence of an outlier in the data through two trends, the first is contaminant with high inflection points that represents contaminant in the circular independent variable, and the second the contaminant in the vertical variable that represents the circular dependent variable using three comparison criteria, the median standard error (Median SE), the median of the mean squares of error (Median MSE), and the median of the mean cosines of the circular residuals (Median A(k)). It was concluded that the method of least squares is better than the

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
An Application of the Banzhaf Values for Cooperating Among Producers of Waste Processing in the Al-Mahmudiya Factory
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     The game theory has been applied to all situations where agents’ (people or companies) actions are utility-maximizing, and the collaborative offshoot of game theory has proven to be a robust tool for creating effective collaboration strategies in a broad range of applications. In this paper first, we employ the Banzhaf values to show the potential cost to waste producers in the case of a cooperation and to reduce the overall costs of processing non-recyclable waste during cooperation between producers. Secondly, we propose an application of the methodology to study a case for five waste producers' waste management in the Al-Mahmudiya factory with the aim of displaying the potential cost to waste producers in case of cooperatio

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 13 2025
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal For Administrative Sciences
Using the Statistical Analysis to study the important reasons of the pollution in the Iraqi Marshlands Areas
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The need for detection and investigation of the causes of pollution of the marshes and submit a statistical study evaluated accurately and submitted to the competent authorities and to achieve this goal was used to analyze the factorial analysis and then obtained the results from this analysis from a sample selected from marsh water pollutants which they were: (Electrical Conductivity: EC, Power of Hydrogen: PH, Temperature: T, Turbidity: TU, Total Dissolved Solids: TDS, Dissolved Oxygen: DO). The size of sample (44) sites has been withdrawn and examined in the laboratories of the Iraqi Ministry of Environment. By illustrating SPSS program) the results had been obtained. The most important recommendation was to increase the pumping of addit

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Compare Prediction by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model from first order with Exponential Weighted Moving Average
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The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traff

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