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Using Bayesian method to estimate the parameters of Exponential Growth Model with Autocorrelation problem and different values of parameter of correlation-using simulation
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We have studied Bayesian method in this paper by using the modified exponential growth model, where this model is more using to represent the growth phenomena. We focus on three of prior functions (Informative, Natural Conjugate, and the function that depends on previous experiments) to use it in the Bayesian method. Where almost of observations for the growth phenomena are depended on one another, which in turn leads to a correlation between those observations, which calls to treat such this problem, called Autocorrelation, and to verified this has been used Bayesian method.

The goal of this study is to knowledge the effect of Autocorrelation on the estimation by using Bayesian method. For verifying the goal has been used the simulation technique where has been generated random samples with known parameters and different values of correlation. It has been shown from the computational results that all result has been affected by the values of correlation coefficients used to generate the data, and there is a clear proof and regularity of the sensitivity for Bayesian estimators by Autocorrelation with increase the size of sample.

 

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 21 2013
Journal Name
المؤتمر العلمي الدولي الرابع لاتحاد الاحصائيين العرب / بغداد
Estimating Fertility Rates in Iraq by using (Lee-Carter) Model And Forecasting for the Period (2012_2031)
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A large number of researchers had attempted to identify the pattern of the functional relationship between fertility from a side and economic and social characteristics of the population from another, with the strength of effect of each. So, this research aims to monitor and analyze changes in the level of fertility temporally and spatially in recent decades, in addition to estimating fertility levels in Iraq for the period (1977-2011) and then make forecasting to the level of fertility in Iraq at the national level (except for the Kurdistan region), and for the period of (2012-2031). To achieve this goal has been the use of the Lee-Carter model to estimate fertility rates and predictable as well. As this is the form often has been familiar

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Developing a Model to Estimate the Productivity of Ready Mixed Concrete Batch Plant
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Productivity estimating of ready mixed concrete batch plant is an essential tool for the successful completion of the construction process. It is defined as the output of the system per unit of time. Usually, the actual productivity values of construction equipment in the site are not consistent with the nominal ones. Therefore, it is necessary to make a comprehensive evaluation of the nominal productivity of equipment concerning the effected factors and then re-evaluate them according to the actual values.

In this paper, the forecasting system was employed is an Artificial Intelligence technique (AI). It is represented by Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to establish the predicted model to estimate wet ready mixe

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Building a mathematical model for measuring and analyzing the general equilibrium in the Iraqi economy through the IS-lm-BP model
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In order to achieve overall balance in the economy to be achieved in different markets and at one time (market commodity, monetary and labor market and the balance of payments and public budget), did not provide yet a model from which to determine the overall balance in the economy and the difficulty of finding the inter-relationship between all these markets and put them applied in the form of allowing the identification of balance in all markets at once.

One of the best models that have dealt with this subject is a model
(LM-BP-IS), who teaches balance in the commodity market and money market and balance of payments and the importance of this issue This research tries to shed light on the reality

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Probabilistic Model building using the Transformation Entropy for the Burr type –xii Distribution
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Entropy define as uncertainty measure has been transfared by using the cumulative distribution function and reliability function for the Burr type – xii. In the case of data which suffer from volatility to build a model the probability distribution on every failure of a sample after achieving limitations function, probabilistic distribution. Has been derived formula probability distribution of the new transfer application entropy on the probability distribution of continuous Burr Type-XII and tested a new function and found that it achieved the conditions function probability, been derived mean and function probabilistic aggregate in order to be approved in the generation of data for the purpose of implementation of simulation

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Classification of Iraqi Children According to Their Nutritional Status Using Fuzzy Logic
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In this paper, we build a fuzzy classification system for classifying the nutritional status of children under 5 years old in Iraq using the Mamdani method based on input variables such as weight and height to determine the nutritional status of the child. Also, Classifying the nutritional status faces a difficult challenge in the medical field due to uncertainty and ambiguity in the variables and attributes that determine the categories of nutritional status for children, which are relied upon in medical diagnosis to determine the types of malnutrition problems and identify the categories or groups suffering from malnutrition to determine the risks faced by each group or category of children. Malnutrition in children is one of the most

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 28 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Using SWAT Model to Estimate the Water Balance of Wadi Al-Mohammadi Basin, Western Iraq: Setup of SWAT Model, SWAT Model Run, Watershed Delineation, Climate Data, Quantification of Hydrological Components, and Water Balance of the Wadi Al-Mohammadi Basin.
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     Water balance as a technique is considered one of the means that is relied upon in solving significant hydrological problems. The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was used in this study to assess the water balance in the Wadi Al-Mohammadi basin located at the eastern edge of the Western Desert. Digital elevation model, soil data, Land use - Land cover, and climate data represent the most important requirements for the SWAT model's input as a database. The Wadi Al-Mohammadi basin delineation results show the overall drainage area was 2286.8 km2 with seven sub-basins. The trend line of climate data indicates a clear increase in the total rainfall, relative humidity, temperature, and solar radiation from 1990-

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Developing Tenth Grade Female Students' Attitudes in Critical Reading Skills Using the Reflective Thinking Method in the Sultanate of Oman
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        This study aimed to developing the skills of critical reading for the tenth basic school female students through a training program using the reflective thinking method. The study sample consisted of (64) students. To achieve the objective of the study, the researcher uses the quasi-experiment approach consisting of a control group (32 students) and an experimental group (32 students). The researcher used three research inventories as follows: 1) A list of critical reading skills included (30) skills within three aspects (Recognition – Deduction – Evaluation and Judgment). 2) An executive program using reflective thinking for developing critical reading skills. 3) Achievement test to measure

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 26 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Using the Basic Efficiency Criteria to Estimate the Security of the New Digital Algebraic Generator System (NDAGS)
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The Multiplicative Cyclic Group has been used to construct a New Digital Algebraic Generator System (NDAGS). This cryptosystem can be classified as a stream cipher cryptosystem. In this paper we will estimate the efficiency and security of the (NDAGS) by using the Basic Efficiency Criteria (BEC). A comparison has made between the some known generators and (NDAGS). The results of applying the BEC and the comparison results proof the high efficiency of the (NDAGS).

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 20 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Laser
Permeability of Radicular Dentine after Using Different Irrigant Activation Techniques Including Photo Induce Photoacoustic Streaming Technique
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Background: preparation of root canals is an important step in root canal treatment. Mechanical instrumentation of root canals cause an irregular layer of debris, known as the smear layer. As a result, several studies reported that preferring the removal of the smear layer. Objective: To study the influence of the energy (100 mJ) of Erbium, Chromium: Yttrium Scandium Gallium Garnet (Er,Cr:YSGG) laser at short pulse duration (60 μs)  on smear layer removal of apical third after using Photon induced photoacoustic streaming technique. Materials and methods: Eighteen straight single-rooted mandibular premolars were used. The roots length were uniform to 14mm from the anatomic apex and

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 31 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of Robust Circular S and Circular Least Squares Estimators for Circular Regression Model using Simulation
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In this paper, the Monte-Carlo simulation method was used to compare the robust circular S estimator with the circular Least squares method in the case of no outlier data and in the case of the presence of an outlier in the data through two trends, the first is contaminant with high inflection points that represents contaminant in the circular independent variable, and the second the contaminant in the vertical variable that represents the circular dependent variable using three comparison criteria, the median standard error (Median SE), the median of the mean squares of error (Median MSE), and the median of the mean cosines of the circular residuals (Median A(k)). It was concluded that the method of least squares is better than the

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