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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models

    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 23 2019
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
The Persuasive Methods of ISIS in Recruiting Individuals (Scientific Approach)

The rapid success and the field dilation of Daish organization in both Iraq and Syria make academic institutes and research centers to pay attention to its propaganda means to gain its public opinion, and to further investigation about new methods employed by this organization to disseminate its messages to the public, particularly young people in large areas of the world. This organization uses traditional propaganda techniques on psychological war and its levels, social network sites and platforms that are distributed online. This study seeks to expose more persuasive methods used by the organization to gain multiple classes of society and to disseminate its extremist ideological thoughts. It also studies the psychological operation an

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 31 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
A Pragmatic Study of Identity Representation in American Political Speeches

Identity is an influential and flexible concept in social sciences and political studies. The basic sense of identity is looking for uniqueness. In one sense, it is a sign of identification with those we assume they are similar to us or at least in some significant ways they are so. Globalization, migration, modern technologies, media and political conflicts are argued to have a crucial effect on identity representation in terms of the political perspectives specifically in the United States of America. This paper endeavors to investigate how American politicians represent their identities in speeches delivered in different periods of time namely from 2015 to 2018 in terms of the pragmatic paradigm. Three randomly selected speeches by fa

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 31 2017
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The fate of Pharaoh's magicians in the Quran : objective study

Out of the search for the truth, the reader of the Holy Qur’an should know the fate of the sorcerers whom Pharaoh threatened when they announced it as pure monotheism in front of seeing the stick as it turned into a clear serpent, when they said: We believe in the Lord of the worlds, the Lord of Moses and Aaron, and the clear promise came to cut and crucify the trunks of palm trees, and they said what they said if Being supplicants to God (May God cause us to die as Muslims), did Pharaoh actually carry out what he promised them?? So we studied that subject from this angle. Because what looms on the horizon of the Holy Qur’an is that there is no one who seeks refuge with God Almighty in times of adversity except that God Almighty has

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 20 2018
Journal Name
Al-academy
The Performance of the Actor (Sami Abdul-Hameed) in the Picturesque Theatre of the play Director (Salah AL-Kassab)

The researches discusses the style of acting used by (Sami Abdul-Hameed) in one of the play director (Salah AL-Kassab) production whine he called; Picturesque.
The problem of this research is to discover the differences between the performance of (Sami Abdul-Hameed) in the Picturesque Theatre and the other theatre.
The goal of the research is to get to know the style of acting used in (king Lear) directed by (Salah AL-Kassab).
After defining the term (picturesque theatre), the researcher discusses the elements of the Visual theatre and the components of the stage picture according to (Alexander Dean) and he refers to those well-known director who had emphasized the Visual elements. Such as (Gordon Grieg) and (Franco Zeferrel

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 31 2023
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The Approach of Discretion in Contemporary Jurisprudential Issues, with Imam Al-Qaradawi The Jurisprudence of Minorities as a Model

Research Objectives: The research aims to highlight the approach of Imam Al-Qaradawi in contemporary jurisprudence in the recent issues of the jurisprudence of minorities, and mentioning the foundations of jurisprudence of minorities, along with some of the practical applications of Imam Al-Qaradawi.

Study Methodology: The researcher applied the inductive, analytical and comparative approach by tracking the scientific material related to the subject of the study from the books of Al-Qaradawi in the first place, then by comparing the legal provisions with what had been stated in the four schools of jurisprudence.

Findings: The interest and need of Muslim minorities in non-

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2015
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
What is the contract of cultivating the land of the waqf in Islamic jurisprudence and the Algerian Awqaf law

What is the contract of cultivating the land of the waqf in Islamic jurisprudence and the Algerian Awqaf law

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2015
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The Jews of the East in the journey of Benjamin and the Andalusian Alttali (d. 586 AH): (دراسة تحليلية)

Because of the diverse circumstances in Andalusia, the Jews lost much of the atmosphere of freedom and coexistence, which they enjoyed under Islamic rule there, to leave more Jews in the sixth century AH, under Spanish rule abolishing the existence of the other. And to impose his negativity with unjust domination. What motivated the people of Judaism; to turn their faces on the Islamic East; according to the coexistence climates that glorified various religions. It has emerged in this regard Benjamin Title (d. 685 e), who made a long journey to the east, recorded in the texts of the traveler, what will be shown research, God willing.

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 03 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
Evaluation of inhibin-B hormone, FSH, and Testosterone in serum of infertile men

Background: Serum levels of inhibinB hormone , FH and testosterone hormone in serum of infertile men and compare the results with the fertile men (cotrols).
Thirty patients (infertile men) healthy 14 controls included in this study.mean serum inhibinB ,testosterone and FH level of oligospermia and azoospermia groups were significantly differences than these both control group.
Objective: The study was planned to evaluate serum levels of inhibinB hormone , FSH and testosterone hormone in infertile men and compare the results with these fertile men (Controls).
Materials & Methods: Thirty patients (infertile men) and 14 healthy controls (fertile men) included in this study, Age range (24 to 45 years). The patients (30) were div

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The possibility of applying CAPP technology to improve the quality of the product

     The research deals with A very important two subjects, computer aided process planning (CAPP) and Quality of product with its dimintions which identified by the producer organization, the goal of the research is to Highlight and know the role of the CAPP technology to improve quality of the product of (rotor) in the engines factory in the general company for electrical industries, The research depends case study style by the direct visits of researcher to the work location to apply the operational paths generated by specialized computer program designed by researcher, and research divides into four axes, the first regard to the general structure of the research, the second to the theoretical review, the t

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2015
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The communicative dimension of Andalusian-Moroccan poetry In the classification and refining book (The pleasure of the soul of the five senses)

The heritage of the human peoples remains a beacon of data, after renewed awareness of them, open to their propositions, which are born from the womb of intertwined elements of customs, knowledge, arts, and literature ... Misleading the reception process, it may be something intriguing to identify with caution with the text sample selected by the current search procedures prepared according to the adoption of a descriptive therapist in a three-dimensional approach, as well as a comprehensive textual reference for that specific communication dimension within Anthology Andalusian - Moroccan poetry in the book of pleasure in the perception of the five senses Tahdib ibn Manzoor (d. 711 e) from the origin of Tivashi (d. 651 e) Tagged: Separat

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