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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 09 2015
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
Variations Heavy Metals Concentrations in Tigris River in Baghdad City.: Variations Heavy Metals Concentrations in Tigris River in Baghdad City.
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The aim of the research is the detection of heavy metals using (Inductively coupled Plasma ICP) for samples in Tigris river at intakes of water treatment plants Baghdad (Sharq dejla, Al-Wathba, Al-Wahda, and Al-Dora) and samples at Tigris banks near (Al-Adhamya, Al-Shuhda bridge and al-Jadrya).
All the recorded results were fitted with Iraqi standers No. 25 in 1967 for all samples with heavy metals (arsenic Ar, Cadmium Cd, Chromium Cr, Zinc Zn, Lead Pb, Copper Cu, Nickel Ni, Manganese Mn, Ferrous Fe) where all concentration were lower than standard values except Cadmium (0.01- 0.014) in plants intakes and (0.027- 0.048) in river samples while the standard value is (0.005).
Other tests such as chemical oxygen demand and oil &

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 24 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The rality of urban management strategies in the city of Baghdad
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Several studies have indicated that more than 600 cities in the world (intermas of rapid growth and development) will generate about 60% of international economic growth between 2010 and 2025 . by 2025 , 66% of the worlds population will live in urban areas the management of cities will face challenges that accompany this increase in the population which requires preparing to face these challenges and problems and the need to provide the aim of the research to know the readiness of Baghdad city to implement the strategies of urban management throught on asmple representing the ( Advisiry group for the comprechnsive development plan for the city of Baghdad 2030 and its supporters ) in the municipality of Baghdad and the number of

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 28 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Estimation of urban land price within holly cities by using integrated GIS-regression models: case study Al-Kufa city- Iraq
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        Urban land price is the primary indicator of land development in urban areas. Land prices in holly cities have rapidly increased due to tourism and religious activities. Public agencies are usually facing challenges in managing land prices in religious areas. Therefore, they require developed models or tools to understand land prices within religious cities. Predicting land prices can efficiently retain future management and develop urban lands within religious cities. This study proposed a new methodology to predict urban land prices within holy cities. The methodology is based on two models, Linear Regression (LR) and Support Vector Regression (SVR), and nine variables (land price, land area,

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 06 2016
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
DETECTION OF IRON AVAILABITITY OF WHEAT FLOUR PRODUCED IN BAGHDAD CITY MILLS: DETECTION OF IRON AVAILABITITY OF WHEAT FLOUR PRODUCED IN BAGHDAD CITY MILLS
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In the present study, a total of 245 flour samples were collected from 49 mills on both sides of Baghdad city (Al- Karkh and Al- Resafa), during the period from 1/6 - 1/12/ 2015 to detect the prolportion of iron added to the flour samples. It is found that only 45% of mills produced flour contain the prescribed percentage of iron (30-60 ppm) while 51.9% of the mills produced flour at rate is less or much more than the prescribed percentage, while only 4.1% of the mills were not added iron to the flour.

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Hypothyroidism and AMH in Iraqi Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease
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This study was conducted to investigate thyroid function and Anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) in (Chronic kidney disease) CKD patients by evaluating their levels in CKD patients, 50 patients were diagnosed to have CKD stage-5, their ages ranged between 20-50 years (25 males and 25 females) who attended the Nephrology and Transplant Center in Medical City of Baghdad- Iraq, they were recruited from April 2018 to July 2018 and were enrolled into the study. The control group consisted of 20 healthy individuals, their ages ranged between 20-48 years (10 males and 10 females). The study showed non-significant (p>0.05) increase in AMH level in CKD patients compared to the control group. On the other hand, TSH was recorded a highly significant (

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 10 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Nurses' Practices regarding Patients Discharge Planning post Cardiac Surgery at Cardiac Centers in Baghdad city
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Objective (s): to assess nurses' practices regarding discharge planning post-cardiac surgery and to find out the relationship between nurse practices and demographic characteristic (age, gander, level of education, years of experiences, and years of experiences in surgical ward).
Methodology: A descriptive study was carried out at cardiac centers and hospitals in Baghdad (Ibn Al- Bitar specialized center for cardiac surgery; Iraqi center for heart disease and Ibn al Nafees hospital). For the period of 6th February 2017 up to 1st of June 2018. A non-probability (purposive) sample of (58) nurses (male & female) who were working in surgical wards. The data was collected, by using of a questionnaire, which consists of two parts, part

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 12 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Evaluation of Youth's Health Risk Behaviors in Baghdad City
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Objective(s): To evaluate youth's health risk behaviors in Baghdad City and to determine the relationship between such behaviors and the youth's demographic characteristics of age, gender and grade. Methodology: A descriptive study, using the evaluation approach, is carried out to evaluate youth's health risk behaviors in Baghdad City for the period of January 26th 2016 to May 20th 2016. A non-probability "purposive" sample of (160) University students is selected for the purpose of the study from four groups of colleges (medical, engineering, sciences, and education) and it is equally distributed of

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 10 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The hydrological regime of the Tigris River in the city of Baghdad
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Water drainage pattern in the rivers and changed the nature of the renewed feeding areas
in the basin in terms of topographic and geological conditions and climate in addition to the
human role in organizing the process flow within these basins. This study addressed the
development of the Tigris River Hydrological in the city of Baghdad and found that the
annual rate of water drainage in the Tigris River was driven down very significantly,
especially in the past twenty years, and since 1996 up to 2014 record flow rates of less than
the overall rate of discharge of water, a (950 m3 / s ), in addition to the quarterly decrease the
discharge rates, especially since the beginning of the year 2000 and took converge all fo

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 09 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Adolescent Girls' Awareness towards Reproductive Health in Baghdad City
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Objective: is to determine the level of awareness concerning the reproductive health among adolescent girls in
Baghdad City.
Methodology: A cross sectional study was performed in order to assess the level of awareness regarding reproductive
health among 180 adolescent school girls in the age 12-18 years from five secondary schools in Al-Seder Sector in
Baghdad city, the data was collected by direct interview using constructed questionnaire to obtain socio-demographic
characteristics and level of awareness related to reproductive health. The study started from September 2012 to
January 2013.
Results: the results show that the highest percentage of girls (47.7%) was in age (17-18) year's age, (54.5%) at 4th class
se

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Publication Date
Sat Nov 10 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Assessment of Science Teachers' Awareness towards Communicable Diseases Control in Baghdad City Primary Schools
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Objective: To assess of Science Teachers' Awareness towards Communicable Diseases Control in Baghdad City
Primary Schools
Methodology: A descriptive study was conducted, included (100) primary school, (50) in Al-Rassafa sector, and
(50) in Al-Karkh sector, from March 5th 2012 to March 15th 2013, to assess of science teachers' awareness
towards communicable diseases control. A cluster sample of (100) Science teachers (males and females) were
selected, as one teacher from each school. A questionnaire format was used for data collection. The validity of
questionnaire was estimated through a penal of experts related to the field of study, and its reliability was
estimated through a pilot study conducted in (20) schools (

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