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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 12 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Evaluation of Andrews' six keys of normal occlusion in a sample of Iraqi adults in Baghdad city
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Background: The Andrews’ six keys of normal occlusion contribute individually and collectively to the total scheme of occlusion and, therefore, are viewed as essential to successful orthodontic treatment. The present research aims to evaluate the presence of the parameters of the Andrews’ Six Keys of normal occlusion in a sample of 100 Iraqi adults with complete permanent dentition and clinically acceptable normal occlusion (Angle’s Class I) in Baghdad city. Their age range 18-25 years (60 males and 40 females). Materials and methods: Each patient was subjected to clinical examination and then study cast models were made, with their occlusal records. The measuring tools that have been used involved: Three-dimensional goniometer to me

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2023
Journal Name
History Of Medicine
Study of the quality of attach algae to the concrete supports of some bridges within Baghdad city
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A study of taxonomic quality of algae attaching Three concert bridges built on the Tigris River within city of Baghdad including Al-Jadriyah Bridge in Al-Jadriyah area and the Bab Al-Mu'adam Bridge in Al-Shalajiya area, while the third site included Al-Muthanna Bridge in north of Baghdad city, for the period from Autumn 2021 and Winter 2022. The study identified 114 species of 32 Genus in which the predominance of Bacillariophceae (74 species, 14 Genus) Followed by Cyanophyceae (30species, 12 Genus) and 10 species (6 Genus) of Chlorophyceae. The study showed an increase in species of Bacillariophceae, Cyanophyceae which has the ability to secretion gelatinous substances that enable it to stick to solid stand, the number of the larges

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
Aip Conference Proceedings
Impact of geographical locations of the water treatment plants in Baghdad City on quality of supplied water
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In this study, the water treatment plants located on the Tigris River within Baghdad city were subjected to qualitative and quantitative assessments. Based on location, the plants from upstream to downstream are Al-Karkh, East Tigris, Al-Karamah, Al-Wathbah, Al-Wehdah, Al-Kadiseyah, Al-Dora, and Al-Rashid. Data from 2009 to 2020 on the turbidity, total dissolved solids, Alkalinity, hardness, chloride, calcium, and temperature were used in the qualitative assessment while data on the treated water production and population served were used in the quantitative assessment. The above Data was acquired from the Municipality of Baghdad. The turbidity was mainly used as a fair gauge to assess the performance of the water treatment plants in Baghda

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 21 2024
Journal Name
Edelweiss Applied Science And Technology
Using count regression models to investigate the most important economic factors affecting divorce in Iraq
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The two most popular models inwell-known count regression models are Poisson and negative binomial regression models. Poisson regression is a generalized linear model form of regression analysis used to model count data and contingency tables. Poisson regression assumes the response variable Y has a Poisson distribution, and assumes the logarithm of its expected value can be modeled by a linear combination of unknown parameters. Negative binomial regression is similar to regular multiple regression except that the dependent (Y) variables an observed count that follows the negative binomial distribution. This research studies some factors affecting divorce using Poisson and negative binomial regression models. The factors are unemplo

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
International Journal Of Engineering
Esterification Reaction Kinetics Using Ion Exchange Resin Catalyst by Pseudo-Homogenous and Eley-Ridel Models
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This work deals with kinetics and chemical equilibrium studies of esterification reaction of ethanol with acetic acid. The esterification reaction was catalyzed by an acidic ion exchange resin (Amberlyst- 15) using a batch stirred tank reactor. The pseudo-homogenous and Eley-Rideal models were successfully fitted with experimental data. At first, Eley-Rideal model was examined for heterogeneous esterification of acetic acid and ethanol. The pseudo-homogenous model was investigated with a power-law model. The apparent reaction order was determined to be (0.88) for Ethanol and (0.92) for acetic acid with a correlation coefficient (R2) of 0.981 and 0.988, respectively. The reaction order was determined to be 4.1087x10-3 L0.8/(mol0.8.min) with

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Bionatura
STUDY THE TIGRIS RIVER IN SOUTH OF BAGHDAD CITY AND MAY USE IT AS IRRIGATION WATER
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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2012
Journal Name
Bulletin Of The Iraq Natural History Museum (p-issn: 1017-8678 , E-issn: 2311-9799)
GIZZARD NEMATODES OF THE HOUSE SPARROW PASSER DOMESTICUS BIBLICUS HARTERT COLLECTED IN BAGHDAD CITY, CENTRAL IRAQ
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Acuaria skrjabini Ozerskaya, 1926 and Dispharynx nasuta (Rudolphi, 1819) Stiles and Hassall, 1920, were found embedded in the mucosa of the gizzards of 26.97% of house sparrows, Passer domesticus biblicus collected in Baghdad City. Their morphometric and meristic features were expressed and compared with that reported in other studies.

 

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 05 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Effectiveness of Health Education-oriented Program on Parents' Awareness towards Adolescents' Violence Control in Baghdad City
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Objective: This study aims to determine the effectiveness of health education oriented program on parents' awareness
towards adolescents' violence control.
Methodology: A quasi-experimental study was carried out in Baghdad city form 1st of April, 2008 to 1st of September,
2009. A purposive "non-probability" sample of 60 parents who have adolescents' violence in their families who were
selected according to specific criteria. The researcher divided the samples into two equal groups; the study and control
groups. The health education program, as well as a questionnaire was constructed as tools for data collection by the
researcher for the purpose of the study. Content validity was determined by a panel of experts in diffe

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Publication Date
Sat Nov 03 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Assessment of Nurses' Knowledge Towards Child with Bacterial Meningitis at Pediatric Teaching Hospitals in Baghdad City
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Objective: the aim of the study is to assess the knowledge and practices for nurses that working in
words of Ibn Al-kuff hospital for spinal cord injuries.
Methodology: descriptive study from the period of (1st of July to the 30th August 2005) about the
knowledge and practical management when autonomic dysreflexia syndrome affects those patients
whom sleeping in the words of this hospital and its relationship with some variables.
The sample of the study consists of (100) nurses male and females are selected purposively. a
questionnaire check list was designed for study purpose and applied by (test - retest) to improve the
reliability, the validity of the assessment was determined through a panel of experts.
The da

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 07 2021
Journal Name
Indian Journal Of Forensic Medicine & Toxicology
Impact of Pregnant Women’s Depression State upon their Pregnancy Outcomes at Maternity Hospitals in Baghdad City
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Objective: To assess the impact of pregnant women’s depression state upon their pregnancy outcome Methodology: A descriptive purposive study was used to assess the impact of pregnant women’s depression state on their pregnancy outcomes. The study was conducted from (22nd \ September \ 2020 to 15th \ February \ 2021). A non-probability sample (purposive sample) was selected from 100 women. Data were collected through an interview with the mother in the counseling clinic, during the third trimester of pregnancy, as well as after childbirth in the labour wards to assess the outcome of pregnancy. Data were analyzed through descriptive statistics (frequency and percentages). Results: The most important thing observed in this study was the ne

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