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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Determination Oxidant - Antioxidant Enzyme and some Trace Elements in Breast Cancer in Baghdad City
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level of effectiveness of Glutathione - S - Transferees (GST), Glutathione peroxides (GPX),Malondialdehyde (MDA) the product of lipid peroxidation and some trace elements ( zinc,seleinum,iron ,copper ) had been measured in sera of (50) women with breast disease.which had been divided to : Control group (25),The first group (A) benign breast tumors (25),the second group (B) breast cancer (25). The results showed a clear moral high level of Glutathione - S - Transferees (GST), Glutathione peroxidase (GPX) , and Malondialdehyde (MDA) level in breast cancer group while a slight increase were observed in the levels of these enzymes and(MDA) in benign breast group. A significant reduction was evident in the levels of selenium and zinc

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 15 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Salivary vitamin D3 in relation to dental caries among pregnant women in Baghdad city
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Background: Vitamin D deficiency is a problem for pregnant women, and it affects general and oral health. This problem increases as vitamin D requirements increase during pregnancy. This study was conducted among pregnant women in urban and rural areas in order to assess the relation between salivary vitamin D3 and dental caries. Materials and methods: In this comparative cross-sectional study, all women participating were attending the primary Health Care Centers in Baghdad city in AL-Karkh sector, they were with age ranged from (15-44) years old. The total number 90 pregnant women in the second trimester only which include: The first group consists of (45) pregnant women attendance seeking dental treatment in urban areas, The second gr

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Relationship between the Strategies of E-marketing mix and Marketing Effectiveness of the Palestinian Small Business Industrial Organizations in the City of Hebron
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In the city of Hebron, small business industrial organizations face a major challenge related to its ability to reach, attract and sustain a sufficient number of customers in order to ensure its continuity and sustainability. The research problem is summarized in an attempt to reveal how the e-marketing could improve and support the marketing effectiveness of small business industrial organizations in the city of Hebron/Palestine. The importance of this research stems from the fact that it addresses a new knowledge branch of the field of marketing, which is electronic marketing for small business organizations, and the fact that the research highlights appropriate marketing solutions for these organizations in light of the Intern

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Publication Date
Tue Apr 26 2016
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
Study of environmental pollution to soil of power station Dezlat alJadiriyah / University of Baghdad.: Study of environmental pollution to soil of power station Dezlat alJadiriyah / University of Baghdad.
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The study aimed to measure the concentration of some heavy metal elements and represented by (Pb, Cd,Cu) through the use of atomic absorption spectrometer Flame AAS-7000 type SHIMADZU underwent a process modeling to twelve samples from the soil of electricity Dezlat al Jadiriyah station in the Baghdad University compound at a depth of 30-60 cm from the surface and divided the samples into two groups first included six samples from inside the station while the second included six samples from outside the station. For the element of Pb was higher concentration reached by 29.32ppm and less concentration 17.56ppm. were elements Cd and Cu are growing and less and proportions of certain while the highest concentration of copper 9.69 ppm and le

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Prediction of the number of births in the Governorate of Basra for the period (1998-2050)
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The adoption of many mathematical concepts contributes to the construction of models of sports and the population can be interpreted to explain the movement and growth of the population lead to proper planning to manage the requirements of the population and meet their needs of providing education or providing medical services, health and others. In this study, the number of births in the Governorate of Basrah for the period (1998-2050) is estimated to be based on the assumption that the population of the visually impaired is a stable society. If the rate of growth is (0.0492), some demographic indicators are important for maintaining the average age of women at pregnancy (27.817). Each woman will give birth (3.74) female birth d

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 04 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
أثر التوجيه بتأثيرأشعة الشمس على التطور العمراني للشوارع التجارية في مدينة بغداد
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Publication Date
Wed Oct 01 2008
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
المكانة الاجتماعية لطفل الروضة بين اقرانه وعلاقتها ببعض المتغيرات في مدينة بغداد
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استهدف البحث الكشف عن المكانة الاجتماعية لطفل الروضة بين أقرانه ، ودلالة الفروق في المكانة الاجتماعية لاطفال عينة البحث التي تعزي الى بعض المتغيرات من خلال الاجابة عن الاسئلة الاتية :

اولاً : ما المكانة الاجتماعية لدى اطفال الروضة بين اقرانهم ؟

ثانياً : ما علاقة المكانة الاجتماعية لدى اطفال الروضة ببعض المتغيرات و ذلك من خلال اختبار الفرضيات الصفرية الآتية :

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 14 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Educational value Implied in Secondary School Principals' weekly Speeches at Baghdad
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The research falls in to three sections: the first section has two parts; the first one includes a general description of the research: its   problem, aim, limitations, methodology, and the terminological definition. The second part presents historical background of the weekly school speeches in Iraq and their types. Section Two has two parts: the first is about the principles of writing weekly speeches, their elements, and principals, their conditions. As for the second part, it is about introducing four samples of weekly school speeches distributed as two taken from Al-karkh sector and two taken from Al-rusafa'a sector. The third section: analyzing the content of the sample and giving a short historical background abo

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 04 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Social Factors for Delaying the Age of Marriage among Working-Women at the University of Baghdad
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The phenomenon of delayed marriage triggered the intention of most researchers and specialists to reveal the social factors associated with the spread of this phenomenon in order to identify the characteristics of that phenomenon and the social factors resulting from it. Thus, the current research aims to identify the social factors most related to the delay in marriage age among working-women at the University of Baghdad, represented by family factors, economic factors-professional, psychological factors – subjective, and environmental factors. The researcher also aims to identify the differences in social factors associated with late marriage age for working women at the University of Baghdad in terms of the type of profession (teach

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 30 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Design a supply chain model for Baghdad Soft Drinks Company
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In this paper, a mathematical model was built for the supply chain to reduce production, inventory, and transportation in Baghdad Company for Soft Drink. The linear programming method was used to solve this mathematical model. We reduced the cost of production by reduced the daily work hours, the company do not need the overtime hours to work at the same levels of production, and the costs of storage in the company's warehouses and agents' stores have been reduced by making use of the stock correctly, which guarantees reducing costs and preserving products from damage. The units transferred from the company were equal to the units demanded by the agents. The company's mathematical model also achieved profits by (84,663,769) by re

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