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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
Aip Conference Proceedings
Prevalence of polypharmacy among older adult patients in Baghdad: A descriptive study
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Publication Date
Wed May 01 2019
Journal Name
Annals Of Medicine And Surgery
Assessment of the difficulties in laparoscopic cholecystectomy among patients at Baghdad province
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Scopus
Publication Date
Thu Apr 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Prediction of the number of births in the Governorate of Basra for the period (1998-2050)
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The adoption of many mathematical concepts contributes to the construction of models of sports and the population can be interpreted to explain the movement and growth of the population lead to proper planning to manage the requirements of the population and meet their needs of providing education or providing medical services, health and others. In this study, the number of births in the Governorate of Basrah for the period (1998-2050) is estimated to be based on the assumption that the population of the visually impaired is a stable society. If the rate of growth is (0.0492), some demographic indicators are important for maintaining the average age of women at pregnancy (27.817). Each woman will give birth (3.74) female birth d

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 10 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Attitude of the University of Baghdad Students towards the Mixed and Single-Sex Learning
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The study aims at finding out:
1. The students' attitude towards the mixed learning at the university.
2. The statistically significant differences in attitude towards the mixed learning at the university according to the specialization variable.
3. The statistically significant differences in attitude towards the mixed learning at the university according to the gender variable.
The researcher has constructed a scale for measuring the students' attitude towards the mixed learning at the university.
After assuring its validity and reliability, the scale has been given to a sample of (100) students. The sample is selected randomly from (4) colleges of the university of Baghdad, (2) for scientific specialization and (2)for h

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 11 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Global Pharma Technology
Using the Water Quality Index as a Powerful Tool to Assess the Water Quality for Drinking Purposes in Al-Salam, Western Region of Baghdad City, Iraq
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Background: Tap waters play an important role in fulfilling the people needs for drinking and domestic purposes. Contaminate the tap water with different pollutants has become an issue of great concern for 90% of people who are depended on the tap water as the main source of drinking. Pollutants can make their way easily into the delivering pipes which suffer from the leaking resulting in decreasing the quality of water. Objective: Therefore, assess the water quality for drinking purpose by calculating the water quality index is an important tool to ascertain whether the water is suitable for human consumption or not. Methods: In the present work, the water quality of the Al-Salam, western region of Baghdad city, Iraq was investigated for 7

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Scopus (5)
Scopus
Publication Date
Thu Jul 14 2022
Journal Name
Egyptian Journal Of Medical Human Genetics
A single-nucleotide polymorphism of IL12A gene (rs582537 A/C/G) and susceptibility to chronic hepatitis B virus infection among Iraqi patients
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A case–control study (80 patients with chronic hepatitis B virus [HBV] infection and 96 controls) was performed to evaluate the association of an IL12A gene variant (rs582537 A/C/G) with HBV infection. Allele G showed a signifcantly lower frequency in patients compared to controls (31.2 vs. 46.9%; probability [p]=0.009; corrected p [pc]=0.027) and was associated with a lower risk of HBV infection (odds ratio [OR]=0.49; 95% confdence interval [CI]=0.29–0.83). A similar lower risk was associated with genotypes CG (17.5 vs. 29.2; OR=0.25; 95% CI=0.08–0.81; p=0.02) and GG (10.0 vs. 16.7; OR=0.25; 95% CI=0.07–0.91; p=0.036), but the pc value was not signifcant (0.12 and 0.126, respec‑ tively). Serum IL35 levels showed signifcant difere

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 27 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Effectiveness of Health Education Program on Health Care Providers’ Knowledge toward Immunization of Children at Primary Health Care Centers in Kirkuk City
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Objectives: The study aims to evaluate effectiveness of health education program on health care providers’ knowledge toward immunization of children at primary health care centers in Kirkuk city.

 

Methodology: A quasi –experimental study design two- group (pre-test, post-test 1 and post-test 2) conducted at primary health care centers in Kirkuk city during the period from 28 October 2019 to 10 August 2020. By collecting (50) samples divided into two groups, each one (25) participant as control & study group. The study group exposed to the education program only.

 

Results: Results showed a clear positive

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 18 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Natural Products of Lactococcus Overcome Nosocomial Infection in Some of Baghdad Hospitals in Iraq
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Nosocomial infections (NIs) are hospital-acquired associated infections, and also contracted due to the infections or toxins that exist in some location, like hospital. Therefore in our study, 4 Lactic acid bacteria (LAB) isolates were obtained from dairy product (Lactobacillus brevis, L. acidophilus, Lactococcus raffinolactis and Lactococcus lactis) and were tested for Bacteriocin production to select Lactococcus lactis among them. Cell free supernatant (CFS), Lipid and partial purification of protein La. Lactis had high inhibitory effect against test pathogens (E. coli, Bacillus cereus, Staphylococcus aureus and Streptococcus). 30 isolates that diagnosed by Vitec, were isol

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Scopus (2)
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Publication Date
Sun Jul 02 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Emotional maturation and its relation with leading behavior among the lecturers of Baghdad university
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Self is the main factor of personality and the acceptance of others where each of them are connecting and plays an important role in emotional maturation. The researches affirmed that the leading behavior depending on good human relations between the employers and the employees will enhance their goals and the goals of the institution at the same time . This study aims to measure the emotional maturation among the leactures of the university according to sex variable and identify the correlation between emotional maturation and the level of leading behavior among the lecturers of the university. The sample consists of two samples where the lst is to build the measwe consisting of (200)males and famales lecturers and the 2nd which is the

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 08 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Design bases for waste recycling rules in cities/ Baghdad, a case study"
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Waste is one of the most important problems affecting the city’s environment and its urban landscape, which results from the activities and activities of man and the natural environment. Its sources have varied between residential, commercial, industrial, medical and hazardous, and its spread in cities, on roads and on abandoned open lands, has led to significant negative effects and risks to human health and the environment.

  Therefore, there were serious attempts to deal with waste and follow sequential steps that formed a waste management system such as (collection, sorting, transport, then treatment and disposal). Preventing and reducing waste, then recycling and recovering by composting or burning, and ending with bu

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