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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2013
Journal Name
Advances In Physics Theories And Applications
Studying the effects of Industrial Wastes on Tigris water in Al- Grea't City-Baghdad-Iraq
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Tigris River is one of the main important surface water resources in Iraq. This necessitates continuous study of its quality . The present study is concerned with the characteristics and quality of Tigris water passing through in Baghdad city. (eight) samples were collected from the river in the area Grea't City. The study periods were carried over four season, which has been sampled once represent the every season. First sampling 12-11-2012 represent the autumn season The second sampling 20-1-2013 to represent the winter season. The third in 25-3- 2013 to represent the Springer season. The fourth during 29-5-2013 to represent the summer spring season. In order to specify the water quality, a group of physical and chemical analyses have bee

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 01 2023
Journal Name
Advancements In Life Sciences
Investigation of pathogenic Streptococci species in local and imported mozzarella soft cheese in Baghdad city
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Background: The present work investigated the profile and biodiversity of the pathogenic streptococci species isolated from local and imported mozzarella soft cheese in Baghdad City from October 2022 to January 2023. The study aimed to examine the molecular characterization of 16Sr RNA gene in some streptococcus species isolates from mozzarella soft cheese in Baghdad city Methods: From 50 samples, 8 isolates in all were found and identified based on the VITEK, molecular, and sequencing of the 16SrRNA gene. The eight isolates represented Lactococcus cremoris. Streptococcus alactolyticus, Streptococcus sanguinis, and Streptococcus thoraltensis. The isolates were subjected to conventional PCR and electrophoresis to detect the 16SrRNA gene usi

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Publication Date
Sat Aug 12 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Simulation of Groundwater Movement for Nuclear Research Center at AlTuwaitha Area in Baghdad City, Iraq
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ABSTRACT  
     The simulation of groundwater movement has been carried out by using MODFLOW model
in order to show the impact of change of water surface elevation of the Tigris river on layers of
the aquifer system for Nuclear Research Center at Al-Tuwaitha area, in addition to evaluate the
ability of the proposed pumping well to collect groundwater and change the direction of flow at
steady-state. The results of the study indicated that there is a good match between the values of
groundwater levels that calculated in the model and measured in the field, where mean error  is
0.09 m.
     The study also showed that the increasing of water surface elevation of the

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 26 2017
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Trend of Antibiotics Usage in the Intensive Care Unit in the Medical City in Baghdad
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High frequencies of multidrug resistant organisms were observed worldwide in intensive care units which is a warning as to use the only few effective antimicrobials wisely to reduce selective pressure on sensitive strains.

The aim of the current study is to asses the compliance of the currently followed antibiotic prescribing pattern in the intensive care unit in an Iraqi hospital with the international guidelines.A cross-sectional study was done in the intensive care unit (ICU) of the Surgical Specialties Hospital, Medical City in Bagdad from the 30th of November 2011 to the 5th of May 2012.Patients were followed until they were discharged or died to see any change in condition, response to drugs, devices u

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 18 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Natural Products of Lactococcus Overcome Nosocomial Infection in Some of Baghdad Hospitals in Iraq
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Nosocomial infections (NIs) are hospital-acquired associated infections, and also contracted due to the infections or toxins that exist in some location, like hospital. Therefore in our study, 4 Lactic acid bacteria (LAB) isolates were obtained from dairy product (Lactobacillus brevis, L. acidophilus, Lactococcus raffinolactis and Lactococcus lactis) and were tested for Bacteriocin production to select Lactococcus lactis among them. Cell free supernatant (CFS), Lipid and partial purification of protein La. Lactis had high inhibitory effect against test pathogens (E. coli, Bacillus cereus, Staphylococcus aureus and Streptococcus). 30 isolates that diagnosed by Vitec, were isol

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 02 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Emotional maturation and its relation with leading behavior among the lecturers of Baghdad university
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Self is the main factor of personality and the acceptance of others where each of them are connecting and plays an important role in emotional maturation. The researches affirmed that the leading behavior depending on good human relations between the employers and the employees will enhance their goals and the goals of the institution at the same time . This study aims to measure the emotional maturation among the leactures of the university according to sex variable and identify the correlation between emotional maturation and the level of leading behavior among the lecturers of the university. The sample consists of two samples where the lst is to build the measwe consisting of (200)males and famales lecturers and the 2nd which is the

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Publication Date
Thu Jul 14 2022
Journal Name
Egyptian Journal Of Medical Human Genetics
A single-nucleotide polymorphism of IL12A gene (rs582537 A/C/G) and susceptibility to chronic hepatitis B virus infection among Iraqi patients
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A case–control study (80 patients with chronic hepatitis B virus [HBV] infection and 96 controls) was performed to evaluate the association of an IL12A gene variant (rs582537 A/C/G) with HBV infection. Allele G showed a signifcantly lower frequency in patients compared to controls (31.2 vs. 46.9%; probability [p]=0.009; corrected p [pc]=0.027) and was associated with a lower risk of HBV infection (odds ratio [OR]=0.49; 95% confdence interval [CI]=0.29–0.83). A similar lower risk was associated with genotypes CG (17.5 vs. 29.2; OR=0.25; 95% CI=0.08–0.81; p=0.02) and GG (10.0 vs. 16.7; OR=0.25; 95% CI=0.07–0.91; p=0.036), but the pc value was not signifcant (0.12 and 0.126, respec‑ tively). Serum IL35 levels showed signifcant difere

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 08 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Design bases for waste recycling rules in cities/ Baghdad, a case study"
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Waste is one of the most important problems affecting the city’s environment and its urban landscape, which results from the activities and activities of man and the natural environment. Its sources have varied between residential, commercial, industrial, medical and hazardous, and its spread in cities, on roads and on abandoned open lands, has led to significant negative effects and risks to human health and the environment.

  Therefore, there were serious attempts to deal with waste and follow sequential steps that formed a waste management system such as (collection, sorting, transport, then treatment and disposal). Preventing and reducing waste, then recycling and recovering by composting or burning, and ending with bu

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Prediction of the number of births in the Governorate of Basra for the period (1998-2050)
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The adoption of many mathematical concepts contributes to the construction of models of sports and the population can be interpreted to explain the movement and growth of the population lead to proper planning to manage the requirements of the population and meet their needs of providing education or providing medical services, health and others. In this study, the number of births in the Governorate of Basrah for the period (1998-2050) is estimated to be based on the assumption that the population of the visually impaired is a stable society. If the rate of growth is (0.0492), some demographic indicators are important for maintaining the average age of women at pregnancy (27.817). Each woman will give birth (3.74) female birth d

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
Aip Conference Proceedings
Prevalence of polypharmacy among older adult patients in Baghdad: A descriptive study
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