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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 28 2017
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Quality of Life of Patients with Type II Diabetes Mellitus in Al- Hilla City-Iraq
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Diabetes mellitus is a global problem nowadays due to increase the disease cases all over the world, in both the developed and developing countries which may affect the quality of life (QOL ) of diabetic patients. This study was conducted to assess the quality of life of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) and to determine some selected clinical and sociodemographic factors that affect the quality of life of these patients in Al Hila city-Iraq. This was a cross sectional study in which 100 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus attending diabetic outpatient clinics of Merjan Teaching Hospital-Al Hila. To assess the quality of life of those diabetic patients, the World Health Organizations Quality of Life Assessment (WHOQOL) was a

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences
Comparison between the estimated of nonparametric methods by using the methodology of quantile regression models
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This paper study two stratified quantile regression models of the marginal and the conditional varieties. We estimate the quantile functions of these models by using two nonparametric methods of smoothing spline (B-spline) and kernel regression (Nadaraya-Watson). The estimates can be obtained by solve nonparametric quantile regression problem which means minimizing the quantile regression objective functions and using the approach of varying coefficient models. The main goal is discussing the comparison between the estimators of the two nonparametric methods and adopting the best one between them

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 30 2013
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Efficiency Prediction and Performance Characterization of Photovoltaic Solar Panel at Baghdad Climate Conditions
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The performance of a solar cell under sun radiation is necessary to describe the electrical parameters of the cell. The Prova 200 solar panel analyzer is used for the professional testing of four solar cells at Baghdad climate conditions. Voltage -current characteristics of different area solar cells operated under solar irradiation for testing their quality and determining the optimal operational parameters for maximum electrical output were obtained. A correlation is developed between solar cell efficiency h and the corresponding solar cell parameters; solar irradiance G, maximum power Pmax, and production date P. The average absolute error of the proposed correlation is 5.5% for 40 data points. The results also show th

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 29 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Determination of Job Stress among Nurses in Cardiac Surgical Intensive Care Units in Baghdad City
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Objective: The study aimed to determine the sources and level of job stress experienced by nurses who were
working in intensive care units, and to find-out the relationship between work-related stress and some variables
such as age, gender, educational level, marital status, and years of experience in cardiac surgical intensive care
unit.
Metl]odo]ogy: A descriptive study was conducted on nurses working in the cardiosurgical intensive care units in
Baghdad hospitals. The study sample was selected purposively and consisted of (60) nurses who were working
in cardiosurgical intensive care units in Baghdad city (Ibm Al-Betar Hospital for Cardiac Surgery, Ibn A1-Nafis
Hospital for Cardiovascular Diseases, and the Iraqi Ce

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 01 2023
Journal Name
Advancements In Life Sciences
Investigation of pathogenic Streptococci species in local and imported mozzarella soft cheese in Baghdad city
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Background: The present work investigated the profile and biodiversity of the pathogenic streptococci species isolated from local and imported mozzarella soft cheese in Baghdad City from October 2022 to January 2023. The study aimed to examine the molecular characterization of 16Sr RNA gene in some streptococcus species isolates from mozzarella soft cheese in Baghdad city Methods: From 50 samples, 8 isolates in all were found and identified based on the VITEK, molecular, and sequencing of the 16SrRNA gene. The eight isolates represented Lactococcus cremoris. Streptococcus alactolyticus, Streptococcus sanguinis, and Streptococcus thoraltensis. The isolates were subjected to conventional PCR and electrophoresis to detect the 16SrRNA gene usi

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Scopus
Publication Date
Sat Aug 12 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Simulation of Groundwater Movement for Nuclear Research Center at AlTuwaitha Area in Baghdad City, Iraq
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ABSTRACT  
     The simulation of groundwater movement has been carried out by using MODFLOW model
in order to show the impact of change of water surface elevation of the Tigris river on layers of
the aquifer system for Nuclear Research Center at Al-Tuwaitha area, in addition to evaluate the
ability of the proposed pumping well to collect groundwater and change the direction of flow at
steady-state. The results of the study indicated that there is a good match between the values of
groundwater levels that calculated in the model and measured in the field, where mean error  is
0.09 m.
     The study also showed that the increasing of water surface elevation of the

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2013
Journal Name
Advances In Physics Theories And Applications
Studying the effects of Industrial Wastes on Tigris water in Al- Grea't City-Baghdad-Iraq
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Tigris River is one of the main important surface water resources in Iraq. This necessitates continuous study of its quality . The present study is concerned with the characteristics and quality of Tigris water passing through in Baghdad city. (eight) samples were collected from the river in the area Grea't City. The study periods were carried over four season, which has been sampled once represent the every season. First sampling 12-11-2012 represent the autumn season The second sampling 20-1-2013 to represent the winter season. The third in 25-3- 2013 to represent the Springer season. The fourth during 29-5-2013 to represent the summer spring season. In order to specify the water quality, a group of physical and chemical analyses have bee

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 06 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Assessment of Nurses' Knowledge toward Children with GuillainBarre Syndrome at Pediatric Hospitals in Baghdad City
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Objectives: The study aimed to assess the level of pediatric nurses' knowledge toward children with Guillain-Barre
syndrome (GBS) and to find out the relationships between nurses' knowledge and their demographic data.
Methodology: A purposive “non probability” sample of (30) nurses was selected from medical neurological wards and
Respiratory Care Units of Children Welfare Pediatric Teaching Hospital, Child’s Center Pediatric Teaching Hospital,
AL-Kadhemia Teaching Hospital, Baghdad Teaching Hospital, and Neurological Science Hospital which has started
from March 5
th 2009 to April 30th 2009. The study instrument consists of two parts. The first part is concerned with
nurses' demographical characteristic and the

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 26 2017
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Trend of Antibiotics Usage in the Intensive Care Unit in the Medical City in Baghdad
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High frequencies of multidrug resistant organisms were observed worldwide in intensive care units which is a warning as to use the only few effective antimicrobials wisely to reduce selective pressure on sensitive strains.

The aim of the current study is to asses the compliance of the currently followed antibiotic prescribing pattern in the intensive care unit in an Iraqi hospital with the international guidelines.A cross-sectional study was done in the intensive care unit (ICU) of the Surgical Specialties Hospital, Medical City in Bagdad from the 30th of November 2011 to the 5th of May 2012.Patients were followed until they were discharged or died to see any change in condition, response to drugs, devices u

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 04 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
نمذجة توزيع المدارس الابتدائية في مدينة الفلوجة باستخدام نظم المعلومات الجغرافية G.I.S
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