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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2015
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Evaluation Study of Patients Infected with Chronic Hepatitis C in Iraq
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Background: ;Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a major cause of chronic liver disease. Approximately 85% of patients acutely infected with HCV progress to chronic liver disease with persistence of HCV-RNA for more than 6 months Among patients with chronic HCV infection , 15-20% progress to end-stage liver disease main transmission methods of the virus is by : blood and blood products ; sharing needles and acupuncture .Objective: To evaluate Iraqi patients infected with chronic HCV, including their treatment, and factors that affect their response to treatment .Methods :This study was performed at Gastroenterology and Hepatology hospital in Baghdad from January 2011 to March 2012.The study enrolled 90 patients with HCV Antibody positive (Ab +ve)

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 23 2023
Journal Name
The Egyptian Journal Of Hospital Medicine
Estimation of SLC25A3 Gene Expression in Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia Iraqi Patients
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Background: Chronic myelogenous leukemia is a malignant hematological disease of hematopoietic stem cells. It is difficult to adapt treatment to each patient's risk level because there are currently few clinical tests and no molecular diagnostics that may predict a patient's clock for the advancement of CML at the time of chronic phase diagnosis. Biomarkers that can differentiate people based on the outcome at diagnosis are needed for blast crisis prevention and response improvement. Objective: This study is an effort to exploit the SLC25A3 gene as a potential biomarker for CML. Methods: RT-qPCR was applied to assess the expression levels of the SLC25A3 gene. Results: In comparison to the mean ΔCt of the control group, which was found to b

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 01 2007
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
Isolation of some microorganisms from Iraqi patients with chronic maxillary sinusitis.
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Publication Date
Fri Jun 02 2017
Journal Name
International Journal Of Medical Research & Health Sciences
Analysis of HLA-DQB1 Alleles Frequency in Patients with Chronic Periodontitis
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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
Research Journal Of Pharmacy And Technology
Reading of Immune picture in Chronic Myeloid Leukemia in Iraqi Patients
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Chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) is a myeloproliferative disorders characterized by formation of Philadelphia chromosome. After disease development, several events may associate with the reduction of anti-tumor immunity. The present study was designed to investigate the immunological profile of innate and adaptive immune response in Iraqi patients with CML. Patients were grouped into untreated (UT), treated (T) with chemotherapy, while another apparently healthy individuals were recruited to represent the control (C) group. Methods: ELISA technique was used to estimate serum levels of GM-CSF, IL-1a, IL-8, IL2, INF-?, IL-4, and IL-10 while SRID was used to estimate serum levels of C4, IgM, IgA, and IgG. Results: Regarding to innate immune resp

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 07 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Quality of Life for Adult Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease
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Objective(s): To determine the quality of life for adults with a chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.
Methodology: A descriptive study was carried out on (80) patients with a chronic obstructive pulmonary disease from
December 2008 through October 2009 with special inclusion criteria (adult paƟents from 18 years and above exclude
the patients who suffer complication related of disease and from psychological problems and other chronic illnesses.
The data were analyzed through the application of descriptive data analysis approach and inferential data approach.
Result: The study indicated that the determination of QoL for COPD depended on the level of effect .The grades
according to R.S are: "high" effect of disease in

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 28 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Revive Urban Spaces on Right Side OF Mosul City
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         The living urban space is considered one of the most important elements of the success of modern cities, and it is the first mental image that is formed by people (residents and visitors) of the city , a measure of the frequency, presence and interaction of people in the spaces is an indication of the city's vitality, well-being and economic strength .

The occupation of the city of Mosul before the terrorist ISIS in 2014 and the subsequent liberation operations and the end of the war in 2017 had a great impact on the destruction of the old city on the right side and the death of its urban spaces due to the abandonment of people to it, especially the area (Al-Midan and Al-Qalayaat),

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Modeling and Simulation of Solar Module performance using Five Parameters Model by using Matlab in Baghdad City
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This work presents the modeling of the electrical response of monocrystalline photovoltaic module by using five parameters model based on manufacture data-sheet of a solar module that measured in stander test conditions (STC) at radiation 1000W/m² and cell temperature 25 . The model takes into account the series and parallel (shunt) resistance of the module. This paper considers the details of Matlab modeling of the solar module by a developed Simulink model using the basic equations, the first approach was to estimate the parameters: photocurrent Iph, saturation current Is, shunt resistance Rsh, series resistance Rs, ideality factor A at stander test condition (STC) by an ite

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of Multistage and Numerical Discretization Methods for Estimating Parameters in Nonlinear Linear Ordinary Differential Equations Models.
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Many of the dynamic processes in different sciences are described by models of differential equations. These models explain the change in the behavior of the studied process over time by linking the behavior of the process under study with its derivatives. These models often contain constant and time-varying parameters that vary according to the nature of the process under study in this We will estimate the constant and time-varying parameters in a sequential method in several stages. In the first stage, the state variables and their derivatives are estimated in the method of penalized splines(p- splines) . In the second stage we use pseudo lest square to estimate constant parameters, For the third stage, the rem

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 16 2018
Journal Name
International Journal Of Science And Research
Some Biochemical Assays in Hemodialysis Patients with Chronic Hepatitis C
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Abstract: The present study aimed to evaluate calcium, potassium, albumin, protein, creatinine, urea, uric acid levels, and the level of total sialic acid in the sera of patients with chronic renal failure who had been infected with Hepatitis C virus and in the sera of patients with chronic renal failure, and compare them with healthy volunteers. A total of 90 subjects with age 25-55 years, were divided into three groups. G1 represents 30 patients with chronic renal failure who had treated by dialysis and infected with chronic Hepatitis C virus (positive group). G2 represents 30 patients with chronic failure who had been treated by dialysis (negative group), while G3 represents 30 healthy volunteers (control group). The results showed

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