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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Modeling and Simulation of Solar Module performance using Five Parameters Model by using Matlab in Baghdad City
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This work presents the modeling of the electrical response of monocrystalline photovoltaic module by using five parameters model based on manufacture data-sheet of a solar module that measured in stander test conditions (STC) at radiation 1000W/m² and cell temperature 25 . The model takes into account the series and parallel (shunt) resistance of the module. This paper considers the details of Matlab modeling of the solar module by a developed Simulink model using the basic equations, the first approach was to estimate the parameters: photocurrent Iph, saturation current Is, shunt resistance Rsh, series resistance Rs, ideality factor A at stander test condition (STC) by an ite

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of Multistage and Numerical Discretization Methods for Estimating Parameters in Nonlinear Linear Ordinary Differential Equations Models.
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Many of the dynamic processes in different sciences are described by models of differential equations. These models explain the change in the behavior of the studied process over time by linking the behavior of the process under study with its derivatives. These models often contain constant and time-varying parameters that vary according to the nature of the process under study in this We will estimate the constant and time-varying parameters in a sequential method in several stages. In the first stage, the state variables and their derivatives are estimated in the method of penalized splines(p- splines) . In the second stage we use pseudo lest square to estimate constant parameters, For the third stage, the rem

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 07 2010
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Lymphocyte phenotyping in untreated children patients with chronic allergic asthma
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This study aimed to isolate and phenotype lymphocytes in untreated children patients with chronic allergic asthma. To reach such aim the study involved (25) patients from children (17 male and 9 female) whom their ages where between (3-10) years, in addition to (15) apparently healthy children (9 male and 6 female) in the same ages involved as control group. The data demonstrated that there was a significant increase in the mean percentages of T-lymphocytes (CD3+ cells) in the peripheral blood of patients (66.75±0.29)**, in comparison with control group (43.58±0.19), a significant increase in the mean percentages of T-helper lymphocytes (CD4+ cells) in the pe

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 16 2018
Journal Name
International Journal Of Science And Research
Some Biochemical Assays in Hemodialysis Patients with Chronic Hepatitis C
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Abstract: The present study aimed to evaluate calcium, potassium, albumin, protein, creatinine, urea, uric acid levels, and the level of total sialic acid in the sera of patients with chronic renal failure who had been infected with Hepatitis C virus and in the sera of patients with chronic renal failure, and compare them with healthy volunteers. A total of 90 subjects with age 25-55 years, were divided into three groups. G1 represents 30 patients with chronic renal failure who had treated by dialysis and infected with chronic Hepatitis C virus (positive group). G2 represents 30 patients with chronic failure who had been treated by dialysis (negative group), while G3 represents 30 healthy volunteers (control group). The results showed

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 20 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Hypothyroidism and Leptin in Iraqi Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease
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The present study aims at assessing the effects of chronic kidney disease (CKD) on thyroid hormone and leptin by evaluating the level of: leptin hormone along with thyroid hormone in CKD patients. The study has been conducted on  70 subjects, 50 patients with an age range between 20-50 years (25  males and 25 females) who were diagnosed to have CKD stage-5, and 20 normal controls whose ages ranged between 20-48 years (10  males and 10 females), who attended  the Nephrology and Transplant Center in Medical City of Baghdad- Iraq from April  2018  to July  2018. The study showed a highly significant (P<0.01) increase in TSH level in CKD patients in comparison with controls. While T3 and T4 levels observed highly significant decrea

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 28 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Revive Urban Spaces on Right Side OF Mosul City
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         The living urban space is considered one of the most important elements of the success of modern cities, and it is the first mental image that is formed by people (residents and visitors) of the city , a measure of the frequency, presence and interaction of people in the spaces is an indication of the city's vitality, well-being and economic strength .

The occupation of the city of Mosul before the terrorist ISIS in 2014 and the subsequent liberation operations and the end of the war in 2017 had a great impact on the destruction of the old city on the right side and the death of its urban spaces due to the abandonment of people to it, especially the area (Al-Midan and Al-Qalayaat),

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2023
Journal Name
International Society For The Study Of Vernacular Settlements
Evaluation of Sustainability Using LEED Rating Scales: The Bismayah New City in Baghdad, Iraq
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Publication Date
Wed Aug 05 2015
Journal Name
International Journal Of Current Engineering And Technology
Water Quality Index Assessment using GIS Case study: Tigris River in Baghdad City
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In this study water quality index (WQI) was calculated to classify the flowing water in the Tigris River in Baghdad city. GIS was used to develop colored water quality maps indicating the classification of the river for drinking water purposes. Water quality parameters including: Turbidity, pH, Alkalinity, Total hardness, Calcium, Magnesium, Iron, Chloride, Sulfate, Nitrite, Nitrate, Ammonia, Orthophosphate and Total dissolved solids were used for WQI determination. These parameters were recorded at the intakes of the WTPs in Baghdad for the period 2004 to 2011. The results from the annual average WQI analysis classified the Tigris River very poor to polluted at the north of Baghdad (Alkarkh WTP) while it was very poor to very polluted in t

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Applied Study on Analysis of Fixed, Random and Mixed Panel Data Models Measured at specific time intervals
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This research sought to present a concept of cross-sectional data models,  A crucial double data to take the impact of the change in time and obtained from the measured phenomenon of repeated observations in different time periods, Where the models of the panel  data were defined by different types of fixed , random and mixed, and Comparing them by studying and analyzing the mathematical relationship between the influence of time with a set of basic variables Which are the main axes on which the research is based and is represented by the monthly revenue of the working individual and the profits it generates, which represents the variable response And its relationship to a set of explanatory variables represented by the

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 20 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Multivariate GARCH Models CCC (Constant Conditional Correlation) and DCC(Dynamic Conditional Correlation) To Forecast Iraqi Dinar Exchange Rate in Dollar
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Abstract

Multivariate GARCH Models take several forms , the most important DCC dynamic conditional correlation, and CCC constant conditional correlation , The Purpose of this research is the Comparison for both Models.Using three  financial time series which is a series of daily Iraqi dinar exchange rate indollar, Global daily Oil price in dollar and Global daily gold price in dollarfor the period from 01/01/2014 till 01/01/2016, Where it has been transferred to the three time series returns to get the Stationarity, some tests were conducted including Ljung-Box , JarqueBera  , Multivariate ARCH to Returns Series and Residuals Series for both models In Comparison

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