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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
Indian Journal Of Public Health Research & Development
Effect of <i>Olea europea</i> L Extraction and TiO<sub>2</sub> Nanoparticles against <i>Pseudomonas aeruginosa</i>
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Publication Date
Sun Mar 07 2010
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Spectrophotometric determination of metoclopramide hydrochloride in pharmaceutical tablets, by diazotization-coupling method with 1-naphthol as the coupling agent
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Simple, rapid and sensitive spectrophotometric method was proposed for the analysis of metoclopramide hydrochloride (MPH) in pure form as well as in pharmaceutical tablets. The method is based on the diazotization reaction of MPH with sodium nitrite in hydrochloric acid medium to form diazonium salt, which is coupled with 1-naphthol in sodium hydroxide medium to form azo dye, showing absorption maxima at 550 nm. Beer’s law is obeyed in the concentration range of 0.4 – 18 µg mL-1 of MPH with detection limit 0.5448 µg mL-1. The molar absorptivity and Sandell’s sensitivity are 3.4969 × 104 L mol-1 cm-1 and 0.0101 µg cm-2, respectively. The method was successfully applied to the determination of MPH in pharmaceutical tablets with

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Veterinary Sciences
Histological and histochemical observations of the prostate gland at resting and stimulating status in adult local Dog (Canis familiaris)
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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Swarm And Evolutionary Computation
A review of heuristics and metaheuristics for community detection in complex networks: Current usage, emerging development and future directions
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Publication Date
Thu Sep 05 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Ecohumanism
Early Warning System Means and Tools in the African Union and the Organization of American States: An Analytical Study
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Disasters, crises and wars are a serious and unforeseen threat. The capacity of the early warning system to monitor such crises is therefore crucial. The ability to make quick decisions in a short time is necessary to prevent crises from occurring. Here, the role and effectiveness of the early warning system emerges through its ability to monitor, record and analyze signals. It can also be evidenced by its ability to immediately convey these indicators to the concerned authorities to take measures that ensure these conflicts and disasters do not worsen. The system’s ability to detect disasters and crises, identify the crisis and its type, and use the scientific method and common sense to deal with it is something that contributes to findi

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2025
Journal Name
Results In Materials
Adsorption, thermodynamic and corrosion study of enalapril malate pharmaceutical drug as corrosion inhibitor for carbon steel in saline solution
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Unused and expired pharmaceutical drugs are a novel type of organic corrosion inhibitor. They are less expensive, more effective, and less harmful than conventional organic corrosion inhibitors. This study investigated the effects of concentration, adsorption mechanism and thermodynamic parameters of enalapril malate (ENAP) as a corrosion inhibitor for carbon steel in a saline solution (3.5 % NaCl). The polarization method was used to determine the corrosion rate and inhibition efficiency. Field emission scanning electron microscopy (FE-SEM) and atomic force spectroscopy (AFM) were used to investigate the surface morphology and topography of carbon steel after immersion in both uninhibited and inhibited media for 24 h. Fourier transform inf

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 26 2023
Journal Name
Tekirdağ Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi
Effect of Olive Leaves Hydroalcoholic Extract (Olea Europaea L.) and LactoFeed® probiotics on Induced Ascites in Male Broilers
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The incidence of disease and damage will increase, if environmental control and acceptable management practices are not provided during the rearing period. Ascites affect young broilers with rapid growth, and the most critical factor in causing ascites syndrome is the lack of oxygen in body tissues (hypoxia). This research aimed to investigate the effect of olive leaves hydroalcoholic extract and probiotics (LactoFeed) on experimental ascites caused by levothyroxine in male broiler chickens. The present study was an interventional type, and for its implementation, a single-factor design was used in eight groups with 3 replicates. Data were analyzed based on a one-way analysis of variance. Blood parameters of male chick

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Manufacturing and studying the effect of partial substitution on the properties of the compound Bi<sub>2-x</sub> Ag<sub>x</sub>Sr<sub>1.9</sub>Ba<sub>0.1</sub>Ca<sub>2</sub>Cu<sub>3</sub>O<sub>10+δ</sub> superconductors.
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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
In Indian Journal Of Public Health Research And Development
The Significance of p53, Bcl-2, and HER-2/neu Protein Expression in Iraqi Females Breast Cancer Cell Line (AMJ13)
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Publication Date
Thu Aug 10 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Basic Education
Detection of some major elements and protein in Fusarium wilt disease infected tomato(Lycopersicon esculentum) treated with Arbuscular mycorrhizal fung
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The present study was Conducted to evaluate the effect of amixture of three species of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi ( Glomus etunicatum , G. leptotichum and Rhizophagus intraradices ) in Influence on the percentage of the components of NPK and protein of tomato leaves and roots infected with Fusarium oxysporum f.sp. Lycopersici wich cause Fusarial wilt disease , planted for 8 weeks in the presence of the organic matter ( peatmose) , using pot cultures in aplastic green house , Results indicated significant increase in the percentage of the elements of NK and protein of tomato leaves and roots In the control treatment (C), While the percentage of the element P was after infection with the pathogen 4 weaks after mycorrhizal colonization in al

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