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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 15 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
In vitro Performance of Polymethyl–methacrylate with Ultra High Density Poly Ethylene Fiber and Nano Zirconium Oxide Particles Composite
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Background: Poly (methyl methacrylate) has been widely utilized for fabrication of dentures for many years as it has good advantages but not achieved all demands of the mechanical properties such as low transverse strength, low impact strength, low surface hardness, high water solubility and high water sorption. Material and method: To provide bonding between ZrO2 nanoparticles and PMMA matrix, the ZrO2 Nano-fillers were surface-treated with a saline coupling agent. Plasma surface treatment of polyethylene (PE) fiber was done to change surface fiber by using DC- glow discharge system. For characterization of interring any functional groups, the (FTIR) spectrum were done .then the mechanical properties studied to choose the appropriate perc

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 02 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Clinical and radiographical evaluation of pulpotomy in primary molars treated with Pulpotec (PD), Formocresol and Mineral Trioxide Aggregate (MTA)
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Background: Pulpotomy is an accepted treatment for the management of cariously exposed pulps in symptom free primary molars to achieve one of the most important goals for Pedodontists, which is the retention of the pulpally involved deciduous teeth healthy until the time of normal exfoliation. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the relative success of pulpotec, formocresol and Mineral Trioxide Aggregate (MTA) in cariously exposed primary molar teeth, using clinical and radiographical examinations. Materials and methods: Thirty nine children with 45 primary molars requiring pulpotomy were selected in this study, 15 teeth treated by each type of pulpotomy medicament. Clinical and radiographical follow up for the patients was performed

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 08 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Impact of an Educational Program upon Nurses’ Knowledge and Practices Concerning Neurogenic Bladder Rehabilitation for Spinal Cord Injured Persons
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Objectives: To determine the impact of an educational program on nurses’ knowledge
and practices concerning neurogenic bladder rehabilitation for spinal cord injured persons
through a follow-up approach each two months post program implementation for six
months.
Methodology: "Follow-up" longitudinal design by using time series approach of data
analysis and the application of pre-post tests approach for the study and the control
groups. The study was carried out at Ibn Al-Kuff hospital for (SCI) in Baghdad governorate
from 5th of July 2010 to 15th of October 2011. To achieve the objectives of the study, a
non-probability (purposive) sample of (60) nurses (males and females) were working in SCI
units were selec

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2015
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Biotechnology
The Hypoglycemic and Hypolipidemic Activity of Aqueous Green Tea Extract in Normal and Alloxan Induced Diabetic Male Albino Rats
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This study was designed to investigate the hypoglycemic and hypolipidemic activity of aqueous green tea (GT) extract in normal and alloxan-induced diabetic rats. Forty adult male albino rats weighing 180-200 g were divided into four groups of 10 rats each: The first group was served as control; the second group was treated with GT (250 mg/kg b.w); the third group was affected by inducing experimental diabetes by intraperitonial injection of alloxan (150 mg/kg b.w); and the fourth group was affected by inducing diabetes and treated with GT (250 mg/kg b.w). Level of blood glucose and lipid profile [total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and ve

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 07 2010
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Kinetic studies of AST isoenzymes I,II,III,IV partially purified from patient,s urine with chroinc renal failure
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In this research, the kinetic studies of four isoenzymes of Asprtate aminotransferase, which partially purified from the urine of chronic renal failure patients were carried out .The four isoenzymes were obeyed Michaelis-Menton's equation and the optimum concentration of their substrate (Aspartic acid) was (166.5x10-3) mole/liter,and their Km values were determined. Four isoenzymesI,II,III,IV have shown an optimum pH at 7.4.The four isoenzymes obeyed Arrhenius equation up to 37º C and their Ea and Q10 constants were determined .

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 02 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Periodontal health status of heavy and light smokers and its correlation with salivary superoxide dismutase enzyme (A comparative study)
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Background: Periodontal disease is a chronic bacterial infection that affects the gingiva and bone supporting the teeth. Smoking, which is an important risk factor for periodontitis, induce oxidative stress in the body and cause an imbalance between reactive oxygen species (ROS) and antioxidants, such as superoxide dismutase (SOD). This study aimed to evaluate the influence of smoking on periodontal health status by estimating the levels of salivary SOD level in non-smokers (controls) and light and heavy smokers and to test the correlation between the SOD enzyme level and the clinical periodontal parameters in each group. Materials and Methods: The study sample consisted of 75 male, with age ranged from 35 to 50 years. Clinically, the perio

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 02 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Salivary gland tumors: A review of 171 cases, with particular reference to histological types, site, age and gender distribution
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Background: Salivary tumors are uncommon, being of low incidence worldwide. This study aimed to assess cases collected in this series of salivary gland tumors in regard to histopathological typing, in relation to age, site and gender. Materials and methods: This is a retrospective study; cases were collected from public and private laboratories. A total number of 171 cases were collected. The slides were reviewed and reclassified for histopathological typing according to WHO classification 2005. Results: Benign tumors were more common than malignant tumors. The most common histological type was benign mixed tumor, followed by Warthin’s tumor. The most common malignant tumor was adenoid cystic carcinoma. One hundred twenty three cases ou

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Publication Date
Fri May 25 2018
Journal Name
Drug Invention Today
Effect of uricol® and food with different samafurantin® doses on secondary pharmacokinetic parameters by applying urinary data
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Introduction: Nitrofurantoin (NFT) is abroad spectrum bactericidal antibiotic. The bioavailability of NFT is affected by many factors. Samafurantin® tablets containing 50 mg NFT were manufactured by Samarra drug industry. Urinary excretion studies were employed since; the urinary tract is the main site of NFT action and excretion. Objective: The objective of the study was to investigate the effect of Uricol® and food on secondary pharmacokinetic parameters of Samafurantin® tablets with different doses by applying urinary data. Methods: Twelve healthy male volunteers participated in this study. Urine samples were collected from each volunteer after overnight fasting at a specified time intervals which considered as a blank sample for meas

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Scopus
Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
Materials Today: Proceedings
Preparation, characterization and preliminary cytotoxic evaluation of 6-mercaptopurine-coated biotinylated carbon dots nanoparticles as a drug delivery system
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Publication Date
Wed Aug 13 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Biotechnology Research Center
In Vivo Study for Measuring the Toxicity of Heat Stable Enterotoxin (a) Produced by Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli in Mice
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This research was conducted to measure the safety of heat stable enterotoxin a (STa) produced by enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli, through studying its toxic effect on mice since it showed a promising effect in reducing the proliferation of colorectal cancer cells. The cytogenetic effect was determined after giving five different doses (100, 200, 400, 800 and 1600)μg/Kg in comparison with negative (phosphate buffer saline / PBS) and positive (mitomycin C/ MMC, at doses of 2 and 5μg/Kg) controls on mouse bone marrow cells by employing the following parameters: mitotic index, chromosomal aberrations and micronucleus, also, the serum level of liver functional enzymes (GOT, GPT, ALP) was recorded. In addition, lethal dose 50 (LD 50) with cert

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