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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 15 2020
Journal Name
Modern Physics Letters A
Nuclear matter distributions of neutron rich 6He, 11Li, 14Be and 17B halo nuclei studied by the Bear Hodgson potential
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The radial wave functions of the Bear–Hodgson potential have been used to study the ground state features such as the proton, neutron and matter densities and the as- sociated rms radii of two neutrons halo 6He, 11Li, 14Be and 17B nuclei. These halo nuclei are treated as a three-body system composed of core and outer two-neutron (Core + n + n). The radial wave functions of the Bear–Hodgson potential are used to describe the core and halo density distributions. The interaction of core-neutron takes the Bear–Hodgson potential form. The outer two neutrons of 6He and 11Li interact by the realistic interaction REWIL whereas those of 14Be and 17B interact by the realistic interaction of HASP. The obtained results show that this model succee

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Clinical and Radiographical Evaluation of Pulpotomy in Primary Molars Treated with Pulpotec ( PD ) , Formocresol and Mineral Trioxide Aggregate ( MTA )
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Publication Date
Tue Dec 02 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Immunohistochemical evaluation of FHIT and WWOX expression in normal oral mucosa, oral epithelial dysplasia and oral squamous cell carcinoma
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Background: Oral squamous cell carcinoma is the most prevalent malignant neoplasm of the oral cavity which results from accumulated genetic and epigenetic alterations. It is not always inexorable and may be reversible if early intervention in the process can occur to prevent further genetic mutation and disease progression. The FHIT gene is a tumor suppressor gene located in FRA3B region which is the most active common fragile site, where DNA damage leading to aberrant transcripts and translocations frequently occur. The WWOX is a tumor suppressor gene that plays a central role in tumor suppression through transcriptional repression and apoptosis, with its apoptotic function the more prominent of the two. This study aimed to evaluate and co

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 15 2019
Journal Name
Al-academy
Creativity in the Draping on the mannequin of Young Girls Victorian Fashion between 1860-1890: نجلاء إبراهيم بن حمدان
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The history of civilizations in the past centuries is a rich source for creativity and inspiration in all areas of art and design, especially in the field of fashion design. Many designers draw their designs from previous eras; which is the aim of this research as we propose designing fashion the mannequin for the category of young girls aged between (10-18). The costumes were inspired by Victorian women's costumes during the time period (1860-1890) and were subdivided into three time periods (1860-1870), (1870-1880), (1880-1890) forming three designs for each time period , analyzing the nine designs to achieve the creative , functional and aesthetic aspects that are appropriate for the age group (research sample). The importance of the

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 30 2023
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Comparison between Quantitative Computed Tomography and Dual-Energy X-Ray Absorptiometry in the Detection of Osteoporosis in Postmenopausal Women
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Background: Osteoporosis is denoted by low bone mass and microarchitectural breakdown of bone tissue, directing to increased fracture risk and bone fragility. Fractures may lead to a decreased quality of life and increased medical costs. Thus, osteoporosis is widely considered a significant health concern.

Objective. This study aimed to compare quantitative computed tomography (QCT) and dual-energy X-Ray absorptiometry (DXA) to detect osteoporosis in postmenopausal women.

Subjects and Methods. We measured spinal volumetric bone mineral density (BMD) with QCT and areal spinal and hip BMD with DXA in 164 postmenopausal women. We calculated the osteo

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 02 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Elevation in surface temperature of root canals obturated with different thermoplasticized gutta-percha obturation techniques-an in vitro study
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Background: Many studies have been conducted to evaluate the effect of using a hot material in the root canal and its potential for causing damage to the tooth supporting structure. Materials and methods: thirty permanent premolars were obturated with thermoplasticized Gutta-Percha using three different obturation techniques: soft core, Thermafil, and obtura to evaluate the rise in temperature on the root surface using a multipurpose digital thermometer. Results: temperature increases was significantly greater for Obtura versus Soft core (p<0.003), not significant for Thermafil versus Soft core (p<0.087), and Thermafil versus Obtura (p<0.125). Conclusions: temperatures rise on the root surface were below the critical level and, therefore, s

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 13 2011
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
In Vivo Toxicity Study of Nerium oleander's Leaves and Flowers Aqueous Extracts in Mice (Cytogenetic, Biochemical and Hematological Study)
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The present research was carried out to assess the toxic effect of oral administration of the aqueous extract of Nerium oleander leaves and flowers daily at doses of (25) mg/kg body weight for four weeks in mice. The toxicity of this plant parts was determined after two and four weeks by measuring the parameters of cytogenetic (mitotic index, micronucleus %), and serum levels of the hematological (RBC, Hb, WBC) and biochemical (GOT, GPT, ALT, AST) indexes in comparison with that of the control (normal saline), also clinical signs were determined. The results showed a significant decrease in mitotic index while an obvious raise was seen in micronucleus percentage in comparison with that of the control after the two periods of admini

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
Body Image and Its Relationship With Self&#8211;Confidence In Female College of Physical Education and Sport Sciences Students
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سها علي حسين, هويدة إسماعيل إبراهيم, Journal of Physical Education, 2017 - Cited by 1

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 17 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Applied Chemistry
Synthesis, Composition, Spectral, Geometryand AntibacterialApplicationsof MnII, NiII, CoII, CuII and HgIIcomplexes of N2O2-mixed donor Schiff Basewith 1,10-phenanthroline
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Publication Date
Tue Dec 02 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Evaluation of Propolis from Kurdistan region as a new resinous sealer in root canal obturation-part I biocompatibility study
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Background: Many materials were proposed as root canal obturating materials but the biocompatibility issue remains to be a critical one. Propolis has been used as a therapeutic agent since the time of Hippocrates. It is known that propolis exhibits some pharmacological activities, such as antibacterial, antiviral, antifungal and anti inflammatory activity. Materials and methods: Eighteen albino rats were used in the study and divided randomly into three groups of 6 animals for each group. Each group was scheduled to be sacrificed at different time periods, which were three days, one week and three weeks. Propolis and ZOE sealer implants of 4mm in diameter and 0.5 gm in weight were implanted in the dorsal side of the rats. At the end of the

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