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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Sat Aug 31 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
The Effect of Laser And Thermal Treatment on the Hardness and Adhesion Force on the Cermet Coating By Thermal Spray Technique
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Ceramic coating compose from a ceramic mixture (MgO, Al2O3) and metall (Al-Ni) were produced by Thermal Spray Technique. The mixed ratio of used materials Al:Ni (50%) and 40% of Al2O3 and 10% MgO. This mixture was spray on a stainless steel substrate of type (316 L) by using thermal spray with flame method and at spraying distances (8, 12, 16 and 20) cm, then the prepared films were treated by laser and thermal treatment. After that performing a hardness and adhesion tests were eximined. The present study shows that the best value of the thermal treatment is 1000 ℃ for 30 mint; the optimum spray distance is 12 cm and most suitable laser is 500 mJ where the microscopic and mechanical character

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Studying the Effect of Adding Doekhla kaolin Clay and Alumina to Iraqi Bauxite on Some Physical and Mechanical and Thermal Properties
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The aim of this work is to produce samples from Iraqi raw materials like Husyniat Bauxite (raw and burnt) and to study the effect of some additives like white Doekhla kaolin clays and alumina on that material properties were using sodium silica as a binding material. Five mixtures were prepared from Bauxite (raw and burnt) and kaolin clays, with an additive of (40) ml from sodium silica and alumina of (2.5, 5, 7.5,10 wt %) percentage as a binding material. the size grading was through sieving. The formation of all specimens was conducted by a measured gradually semi-dry pressing method under a compression force of (10) Tons and humidity ratio ranging from (5-10) % from mixture weight. Drying all specimens was done and then they were burn

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 08 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Calculation of the total mass stopping power for electrons in some human body tissues in the energy range 0.01-1000 MeV
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The mass collision energy loss (dE/dX), the mass radiative energy loss (Srad/) and the total mass stopping power of electrons in the energy range of 0.01 MeV up to 1000 MeV has been calculated for Lung, Urea and Skin. The results of the present work for the mass collision stopping power of electrons in Lung, Urea and Skin are in excellent agreement with the standard results given by ESTAR program, where the maximum percentage error between the present calculated values and that of ESTAR program in Lung tissue, Urea and Skin tissue is 0.27%, 0.3% and 0.8% respectively. The mass radiative energy loss of electrons in the same energy range is also calculated using a modified equation, and the results are found to be in very good agreem

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 01 2019
Journal Name
Recent Technologies In Sustainable Materials Engineering
A Comparative Study Between the Individual, Dual and Triple Addition of (S.F.), (T.G.P.) and (P.V.A.) for Improving Local Gypsum (Juss) Properties
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Publication Date
Wed Aug 20 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Fracture resistance of weakened premolars restored with sonically-activated composite, bulk-filled and incrementally-filled composites(A comparative in vitro study)
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Background: This study was conducted to assess the effect of sonic activation and bulk placement of resin composite in comparison to horizontal incremental placement on the fracture resistance of weakened premolar teeth. Materials and method: Sixty sound human single-rooted maxillary premolars extracted for orthodontic purposes were used in this study. Teeth were divided into six groups of ten teeth each: Group 1 (sound unprepared teeth as a control group), Group 2 (teeth prepared with MOD cavity and left unrestored), Group 3 (restored with SonicFill™ composite), Group 4 (restored with Quixfil™ composite), Group 5 (restored with Tertic EvoCeram® Bulk Fill composite) and Group 6 (restored with Universal Tetric EvoCeram® co

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 29 2021
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Comparison of Prediction Programs for Short Wave Circuit Link from Iraq to Test points on Both Earth Hemispheres during Solar Minimum
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This paper compare  the accurecy of HF propagation  prediction programs for  HF circuits links between Iraq and  different points world wide  during August 2018 when  solar cycle 24 (start 2009 end 2020) is at minimun activity and also find out the best communication mode  used. The prediction   programs like Voice of America Coverage Analysis Program (VOACAP) and ITU Recommendation RS 533 (REC533 )  had been used to generat HF circuit link  parameters like Maximum Usable Frequency ( MUF) and Frequency of Transsmision (FOT) .Depending  on the predicted parameters (data)  , real radio contacts had been done using a radio transceiver from Icom  model IC 7100 with 100W RF

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2024
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Earth And Environmental Science
Combining Bourgoyne and Young Equations by Bagging Tree Regression to Predict Rate of Penetration in a Southern Iraqi Field, Case Study
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Abstract<p>Achieving an accurate and optimal rate of penetration (ROP) is critical for a cost-effective and safe drilling operation. While different techniques have been used to achieve this goal, each approach has limitations, prompting researchers to seek solutions. This study’s objective is to conduct the strategy of combining the Bourgoyne and Young (BYM) ROP equations with Bagging Tree regression in a southern Iraqi field. Although BYM equations are commonly used and widespread to estimate drilling rates, they need more specific drilling parameters to capture different ROP complexities. The Bagging Tree algorithm, a random forest variant, addresses these limitations by blending domain kno</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Structural and optical properties of Fe- doped ZnO thin films prepared by Sol–Gel spin coating process and their photocatalytic activities
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Pure and Fe-doped zinc oxide nanocrystalline films were prepared
via a sol–gel method using -
C for 2 h.
The thin films were prepared and characterized by X-ray diffraction
(XRD), atomic force microscopy (AFM), field emission scanning
electron microscopy (FE-SEM) and UV- visible spectroscopy. The
XRD results showed that ZnO has hexagonal wurtzite structure and
the Fe ions were well incorporated into the ZnO structure. As the Fe
level increased from 2 wt% to 8 wt%, the crystallite size reduced in
comparison with the pure ZnO. The transmittance spectra were then
recorded at wavelengths ranging from 300 nm to 1000 nm. The
optical band gap energy of spin-coated films also decreased as Fe
doping concentra

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Annals Of Tropical Medicine And Public Health
Information Expertise and its Role in Management Ability to Produce the Physical Education Lesson in the Directorate of Education in Basra
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Those interested in the educational process and lesson management sought to invest the information experience with industrial intelligence and technology because of its importance in increasing the effectiveness of lesson management and developing the creative capabilities of the teacher in directing and managing his lesson. Field research for sports educational institutions that are interested in managing the lesson and preparing mathematical teaching cadres is an important issue and necessary means for identifying the most important phenomena that accompany the process of managing the educational process, as the teacher's success in providing the appropriate conditions to provide rich and influencing experiences in managing and directing

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The Mechanical Behavior Of Materials
Numerical modeling of single closed and open-ended pipe pile embedded in dry soil layers under coupled static and dynamic loadings
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Abstract<p>For the design of a deep foundation, piles are presumed to transfer the axial and lateral loads into the ground. However, the effects of the combined loads are generally ignored in engineering practice since there are uncertainties to the precise definition of soil–pile interactions. Hence, for technical discussions of the soil–pile interactions due to dynamic loads, a three-dimensional finite element model was developed to evaluate the soil pile performance based on the 1 g shaking table test. The static loads consisted of 50% of the allowable vertical pile capacity and 50% of the allowable lateral pile capacity. The dynamic loads were taken from the recorded data of the Kobe e</p> ... Show More
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