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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models

    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 30 2014
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Unstable Angina /Non ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction: Frequency of Conventional Risk Factors; TIMI Risk Score, and Their Impact On Angiographic Data

Background: Appreciation of the crucial role of risk factors in the development of coronary artery disease (CAD) is one of the most significant advances in the understanding of this important disease. Extensive epidemiological research has established cigarette smoking, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, and hypertension as independent risk factors for CADObjective: To determine the prevalence of the 4 conventional risk factors(cigarette smoking, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, and hypertension) among patients with CAD and to determine the correlation of Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score with the extent of coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients with unstable angina /non ST elevation myocardial infarction (UA/NSTEMI).Methods: We

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 03 2013
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Preparation, Characterization and Spectroscopic Study of New Tridentate Schiff Base and its Cu(II), Ni(II) and Zn(II) Metal Complexes

A new tridentate ligand has been synthesized derived from phenyl(pyridin-3-yl)methanone. Three coordinated metal complexes were prepared by complexation of the new ligand with Cu(II), Ni(II) and Zn(II) metal salts. The new Schiff base “benzyl -2-[phenyl(pyridin-3-yl)methylidene]hydrazinecarbodithioate” and the new metal complexes were characterized using various physico-chemical and spectroscopic techniques. From the analysis results, the expected structure to the metal complexes are octahedral in geometry for Cu(II) complex, square planner for Ni(II) and tetrahedral for Zn(II) complex. The new compounds are expected to show strong bioactivity against bacteria and cancer cells.

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 08 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Alvezaúah properties of crude oil and associated water and the relationship with qualities Alheidrocorpunat resulting Fertile Mkami and central Iraq

Conducted Althilelat chemical models of crude oil back to the reservoir Fertile from the fields of Baghdad and Kut and models of crude oil back to the reservoir ??????? of Haklbe Tikrit and Baghdad were calculated their properties Alvezaúah Kalkthaqh and weight, quality and degree of August j (API) and know the quality Nfothma that was light or heavy and make the comparison between Alinvtin also conducted chemical analyzes of the two models of Almia associated with each of the oil above Almkmnin and measured Ktvthma and Zojithma and concentrations of some dissolved salts in them and clarify the relationship between the oil reservoir and water associated with oil fields...

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences (pen)
Estimating the reliability function of the asymmetrical hybrid parallel-series system: Applied study at the state company for vegetable oils industry

The research studied and analyzed the hybrid parallel-series systems of asymmetrical components by applying different experiments of simulations used to estimate the reliability function of those systems through the use of the maximum likelihood method as well as the Bayes standard method via both symmetrical and asymmetrical loss functions following Rayleigh distribution and Informative Prior distribution. The simulation experiments included different sizes of samples and default parameters which were then compared with one another depending on Square Error averages. Following that was the application of Bayes standard method by the Entropy Loss function that proved successful throughout the experimental side in finding the reliability fun

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Scopus
Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2016
Journal Name
Arabian Journal Of Geosciences
Geochemistry and petrology of Late Miocene-Pleistocene Dibdibba sandstone formation in south and central Iraq: implications for provenance and depositional setting

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 08 2018
Journal Name
Chemistry – A European Journal
Magnetic Shielding, Aromaticity, Antiaromaticity and Bonding in the Low‐Lying Electronic States of S <sub>2</sub> N <sub>2</sub>

Aromaticity, antiaromaticity and chemical bonding in the ground (S0), first singlet excited (S1) and lowest triplet (T1) electronic states of disulfur dinitride, S2N2, were investigated by analysing the isotropic magnetic shielding, σiso(r), in the space surrounding the molecule for each electronic state. The σiso(r) values were calculated by state-optimized CASSCF/cc-pVTZ wave functions with 22 electrons in 16 orbitals constructed from gauge-including atomic orbitals (GIAOs). The S1 and T1 electronic states were confirmed as 11Au and 13B3u, respectively, through linear response CC3/aug-cc-pVTZ calculations of the vertical excitation energies for eight singlet (S1–S8) and eight triplet (T1–T8) electronic states. The aromaticities of S

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Water Process Engineering
Biochemical performance modelling of non-vegetated and vegetated vertical subsurface-flow constructed wetlands treating municipal wastewater in hot and dry climate

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Publication Date
Wed May 10 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
REMOVAL OF PHENOLIC COMPUNDS FROM AQUEOUS SOLUTIONS BY ADSOPTION ONTO ACTIVTED CARBONS PREPARED FROM DATE STONES BY CHEMICAL ACTIVATION WITH FeCl3

Activated carbon prepared from date stones by chemical activation with ferric chloride (FAC) was used an adsorbent to remove phenolic compounds such as phenol (Ph) and p-nitro phenol (PNPh) from aqueous solutions. The influence of process variables represented by solution pH value (2-12), adsorbent to adsorbate weight ratio (0.2-1.8), and contact time (30-150 min) on removal percentage and adsorbed amount of Ph and PNPh onto FAC was studied. For PNPh adsorption,( 97.43 %) maximum removal percentage and (48.71 mg/g) adsorbed amount was achieved at (5) solution pH,( 1) adsorbent to adsorbate weight ratio, and (90 min) contact time. While for Ph adsorption, at (4) solution pH, (1.4) absorbent to adsorbate weight ratio, and (120 min) contact

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 25 2023
Journal Name
Kirkuk University Journal For Agricultural Sciences
The role of the agricultural extension in educating farmers about the legislation on protecting the environment from pollution with chemical pesticides

The research aimed to determine the role of the agricultural extension in educating farmers about the legislation on the protection of the rural environment from pollution with chemical pesticides working in the Department of Agricultural Extension and Training and the Department of Agricultural Extension in the directorates of agriculture of Najaf and Qadisiyah, and to determine the role of the agricultural extension in the axis of farmers' use of the correct methods to protect the rural environment from pollution with chemical pesticides and the axis of the reasons that lead farmers to pollute the rural environment with chemical pesticides, and to achieve the objectives of this research prepared A questionnaire in the light of rev

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Annals Of Biology
The Comparative Effect of Copper Oxide Nanoparticles and Copper Sulfate on Reproductive Hormones and Sperm Parameters in Mature Male Albino Mice

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