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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 21 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
The validity of salivary microRNAs (hsa-miR-200a, hsa-miR-125a and hsa- miR-93) as oral squamous cell carcinoma biomarker
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Background: Oral squamous cell carcinoma represents the vast majority of oral cancer it is a common malignant tumor with an increasing incidence. Around the world, the 5 year mortality rate of oral cancer is about 50%. Thus novel biomarkers for early detection oral squamous cell carcinoma are needed. The level of three salivary microRNAs namely hsa-miR-200a, hsa-miR-125a and hsa- miR-93 were measured in saliva of patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma and compared their levels in saliva of healthy control subjects to determine their potential as oral cancer biomarker. Materials and methods: The level of these three microRNAs was measured by using revers transcription, preamplification and quantitative PCR. Results: Only miR-200a presen

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Bank credit and the most important ratios related to the granting: An analytical study of the company advanced Petrokimot Saudi Arabia
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  Bank credit is extremely important, as the generated revenues by a main focus of any bank earnings no matter how many and varied sources of revenue other, and without losing the bank and the main role function as an intermediary in financial economics . But at the faltering customers in payment of loans .   Therefore , uses a method of financial analysis using ratios as one of the important tools to measure the clients ability to pay , in spite of the need for the Bank analyzed the trend in this regard is focused on three main areas ( liquidity, profitability, and borrowing ) and can be to add another field is the possibility to cover fixed charges of the profits generated.   Finally I would like to emphas

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 07 2009
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Mathematical Relationship between Temperature Change and the Changing Consumption of the Product and Kerosene Consumption Forecasting for these years (2005-2015)
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The aim of this study is to construct a Mathematical model connecting the variation between the ambient temperatures and the level of consumption of kerosene in Iraq during the period (1985-1995), and use it to predict the level of this consumption during the years (2005-2015) based on the estimation of the ambient temperatures.

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Annals Of Biology
The Comparative Effect of Copper Oxide Nanoparticles and Copper Sulfate on Reproductive Hormones and Sperm Parameters in Mature Male Albino Mice
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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Existence of a Polynomial Inverse Integrating Factors and Studies About the Limit Cycles for Cubic, Quartic and Quintic Polynomial Systems
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Publication Date
Wed Oct 09 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Global Pharma Technology
Synthesis, characterization, spectral of azo dyes ligands complexes with Rh(III) and La(III) and studies their industrial and bacterial application
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1-[4-(2-Hydroxy-4, 6-dimethyl-phenylazo)-phenol]-ethanone (HL1) and 2-(4-methoxy-phenylazo)-3, 5- dimethyl-phenol (HL2) were produced by combination the diazonium salts of amines with 3, 5- dimethylphenol. The geometry of azo compounds was resolved on the basis of (C.H.N) analyses, 1H and 13CNMR, FT-IR and UV-Vis spectroscopic mechanisms. Complexes of La (III) and Rh (III) have been performed and depicted. The formation of complexes has been identified by using elemental analysis, FTIR and UV-Vis spectroscopic process as well, conductivity molar quantifications. Nature of complexes produced have been studied obeyed mole ratio and continuous alteration ways, Beer's law followed through a concentration scope (1×10-4 - 3×10-4 M). High molar

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 23 2022
Journal Name
World Economics & Finance Bulletin (wefb)
ANALYSIS OF THE CAUSALITY RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SPENDING ON HIGHER EDUCATION AND SOME ECONOMIC VARIABLES IN IRAQ FOR THE PERIOD 1990-2020
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Higher education is important because it creates and develops human capital and provides qualified human cadres, which requires restructuring government spending so that an increase in funding allocated to education is brought about. During the period 1990-2020, government spending was weak on educational institutions in Iraq, which led to a decline in The role of these institutions in the economic development of the country. The highest percentage of spending on higher education of GDP was 0.47% in 2007 and the lowest was 0.01% in 2005. The number of public universities reached 35, and the number of private universities and colleges reached 64 universities and private colleges in 2020. This was accompanied by an increase in the number of s

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 04 2017
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Synthesis, Characterization and Biological Activity of Schiff Bases Chelates with Mn(II),Co(II),Ni (II),Cu(II) and Hg(II)
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In this paper, some series of new complexes of Mn(II), Co(II), Ni (II) Cu(II) and Hg(II) are prepared from the Schiff bases (L1,L2). (L1) derived from 4-aminoantipyrine and O-phenylene dia mine then (L2) derived from (L1) and 2-benzoyl benzoic acid. Structural features are obtained from their elemental microanalyses, molar conductance, IR, UV–Vis, 1H, 13CNMR spectra and magnetic susceptibility. The magnetic susceptibility and UV–Vis, IR spectral data of the ligand (L1) complexes get square–planar and tetrahedral geometries and the complexes oflig and (L2) get an octahedral geometry. Antimicrobial examinations show good results in the sharing complexes.

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 03 2013
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Preparation, Characterization and Spectroscopic Study of New Tridentate Schiff Base and its Cu(II), Ni(II) and Zn(II) Metal Complexes
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A new tridentate ligand has been synthesized derived from phenyl(pyridin-3-yl)methanone. Three coordinated metal complexes were prepared by complexation of the new ligand with Cu(II), Ni(II) and Zn(II) metal salts. The new Schiff base “benzyl -2-[phenyl(pyridin-3-yl)methylidene]hydrazinecarbodithioate” and the new metal complexes were characterized using various physico-chemical and spectroscopic techniques. From the analysis results, the expected structure to the metal complexes are octahedral in geometry for Cu(II) complex, square planner for Ni(II) and tetrahedral for Zn(II) complex. The new compounds are expected to show strong bioactivity against bacteria and cancer cells.

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 08 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Alvezaúah properties of crude oil and associated water and the relationship with qualities Alheidrocorpunat resulting Fertile Mkami and central Iraq
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Conducted Althilelat chemical models of crude oil back to the reservoir Fertile from the fields of Baghdad and Kut and models of crude oil back to the reservoir ??????? of Haklbe Tikrit and Baghdad were calculated their properties Alvezaúah Kalkthaqh and weight, quality and degree of August j (API) and know the quality Nfothma that was light or heavy and make the comparison between Alinvtin also conducted chemical analyzes of the two models of Almia associated with each of the oil above Almkmnin and measured Ktvthma and Zojithma and concentrations of some dissolved salts in them and clarify the relationship between the oil reservoir and water associated with oil fields...

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