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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Sat Nov 30 2024
Journal Name
Asia Pacific Journal Of Molecular Biology And Biotechnology
Random amplified polymorphic DNA-based polymerase chain reaction is an effective tool to examine the genotoxic effects of some food colors
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A large number of natural or synthetic dyes have been removed from both national and international lists of permitted food colors because of their mutagenic or carcinogenic activity. Therefore, this study aimed to use the Random Amplified Polymorphic DNA-Based Polymerase Chain Reaction (RAPD-PCR) assay as a feasible method to evaluate the ability of some food colors as genotoxin-induced DNA damage and mutations. Lactiplantibacillus plantarum was used as a bioindicator to determine the genotoxic effects by RAPD-PCR using M13 primer after treatment with some synthetic dyes currently used as food color additives, including Sunset Yellow, Carmoisine, and Tartrazine. Besides qualitative analysis, the bioinformatic GelJ software was used for clus

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Publication Date
Sat Aug 23 2025
Journal Name
Jornal Of Al-muthanna For Agricultural Sciences
A Proposed Approach to Agricultural Extension in Iraq for a Better Response to the Needs of farmer’s to Address Their Challenges
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Publication Date
Sun Sep 03 2017
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Detection, purification and characterization of a bacteriocin produced by Bacillus subtilis NK16 exhibits a significant antimicrobial activity against clinical Staphylococcus spp.
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Bacteriocin is an important antimicrobial peptide that can be used in industrial and medical fields due to its characteristics of antibacterial, food preservation and anticancer activities. Fifty isolates of Bacillus sp were collected from different soil samples which were already recognized via morphological and biochemical identification process. The isolates were screened for bacteriocin production effective against Staphylococcus spp in order to select the highest producing isolate. The isolate NK16 showed the maximum bacteriocin production (80 AU/ml) which was further characterized as Bacillus subtilis NK 16 through using API identification system (API 20E and API 50CHB). Then, next step was to detect the optimal conditions for maximum

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 22 2018
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Experimental and Finite Elements Analysis Study of Warming Effect on Deboned Force for Embedded NiTinol Wire into Linear Low Density Polyethylene
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This study presents the debonding propagation in single NiTi wire shape memory alloy into linear low-density polyethylene matrix composite the study of using the pull-out test. The aim of this study is to investigate the pull-out tests to check the interfacial strength of the polymer composite in two cases, with activation NiTinol wire and without activation. In this study, shape memory alloy NiTinol wire 2 mm diameter and linear fully annealed straight shape were used. The study involved experimental and finite element analysis and eventually comparison between them. This pull-out test is considered a substantial test because its results have a relation with behavior of smart composite materials. The pull-out test was carried out by a u

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 07 2014
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Effect of Sodium Selenite and Vitamin A on FSH and LH Level in Albino Male Mice treated with Hexavalent Chromium
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The present expermint was designed to determine the effect of Sodium Selenite (0.5 mg/kg) and Vitamin A (10 mg/kg) in FSH and LH level in Albino Male Mice treated with Hexavalent Chromium (1000 ppm). `This study included 48 mice divided into six groups (1st group treated with distilled water and the 2nd group treated with Sesame Oil were considered as control group, 3th group exposed to Hexavalent chromium , 4th group treated with Sodium Selenite and exposed to Hexavalent Chromium , 5th group treated with Vitamin A and exposed to Hexavalent Chromium and 6th group treated with Sodium Selenite and Vitamin A and exposed to Hexavalent Chromium ) . The treatment lasted for 35 days. The results showed a significant (P ? 0.05) decrease in FSH an

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
Revista Iberoamericana De Psicología Del Ejercicio Y El Deporte
The History of Clubs?: Participation in the Iraqi Volleyball Premier League and Its Results for the Period from (1991 to 2022)
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The purpose of this paper is to identifying the results of the clubs participating in the men's Volleyball Premier League for the period from (1991) to (2022), archive the results of the Iraqi clubs participating in the Iraqi Premier League for men for the period from (1991) to (2022), and diagnosing and analyzing the causes of fluctuation in the participation of some Iraqi clubs in the Premier League for men for the period from (1991) to (2022). The nature of the research necessitated that the researcher use the historical approach or the so-called documentary approach, taking advantage of the historical development that took place for the participation of Iraqi clubs for men in the Premier League from (1991) until 2022), the last league h

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 30 2010
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Human Leukocyte Antigens class II influence the expression of Glutamic Acid Decarboxylase auto antibodies in Type Diabetic children and their Siblings
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Background: The immunogenetic predisposition
may be considered as an important factor for the
development of Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus (T1DM)
in association with the HLA antigens.
Objective:This study was designed to investigate
the role of HLA-class II antigens in the etiology of
type T1DM and in prediction of this disease in
siblings, and its effect on expression of glutamic
acid decarboxylase autoantibodies (GADA).
methods:Sixty children who were newly diagnosed
type 1 diabetes (diagnosed less than five months)
were selected. Their age ranged from 3-17 years.
Another 50 healthy siblings were available for this
study, their ages range from 3-16 years. Eighty
apparently healthy control subjects,

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Publication Date
Sat Aug 23 2025
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Mechanical And Material Engineering
THE INFLUENCE OF FRICTION FACTOR ON THE COMBINED CONVECTIVE AND RADIATIVE HEAT TRANSFER IN A RECTANGULAR DUCT WITH INTERIOR CIRCULAR CORE
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Publication Date
Tue Oct 25 2022
Journal Name
Aip Conference Proceedings
The structural properties of mawsoniteCu6Fe2 S8Sn[CFTS] thin films effected by violet laser irradiation deposited via semi-computerized spray pyrolysis technique
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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences (pen)
Estimating the reliability function of the asymmetrical hybrid parallel-series system: Applied study at the state company for vegetable oils industry
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The research studied and analyzed the hybrid parallel-series systems of asymmetrical components by applying different experiments of simulations used to estimate the reliability function of those systems through the use of the maximum likelihood method as well as the Bayes standard method via both symmetrical and asymmetrical loss functions following Rayleigh distribution and Informative Prior distribution. The simulation experiments included different sizes of samples and default parameters which were then compared with one another depending on Square Error averages. Following that was the application of Bayes standard method by the Entropy Loss function that proved successful throughout the experimental side in finding the reliability fun

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