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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 21 2022
Journal Name
Environmental Science And Pollution Research
Development of new computational machine learning models for longitudinal dispersion coefficient determination: case study of natural streams, United States
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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences
Comparing traditional estimators and the estimators of (PSO) algorithm for some growth models of gross domestic product in Iraq
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Publication Date
Fri May 21 2021
Journal Name
International Journal Of Pavement Research And Technology
Developing Resilient Modulus Prediction Models Based on Experimental Results of Crushed Hornfels Mixes with Different Gradations and Plasticity
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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Clinical And Experimental Dentistry
Resistance of bonded premolars to four artificial ageing models post enamel conditioning with a novel calcium-phosphate paste
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Background: This in vitro study compares a novel calcium-phosphate etchant paste to conventional 37% phosphoric acid gel for bonding metal and ceramic brackets by evaluating the shear bond strength, remnant adhesive and enamel damage following water storage, acid challenge and fatigue loading. Material and Methods: Metal and ceramic brackets were bonded to 240 extracted human premolars using two enamel conditioning protocols: conventional 37% phosphoric acid (PA) gel (control), and an acidic calcium-phosphate (CaP) paste. The CaP paste was prepared from β-tricalcium phosphate and monocalcium phosphate monohydrate powders mixed with 37% phosphoric acid solution, and the resulting phase was confirmed using FTIR. The bonded premolars were exp

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 05 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Difficulties of the opening text between changing and collecting reading in poem (city without rain): The Difficulties of the opening text between changing and collecting reading in poem (city without rain)
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Abstract
This research deals with the technical of opening text during the critical
study about the poem of Al- ssiyab which is named ( city with out rain)
We chose this poem also to make connection with the western critical
theories.
Our study aims to explain the act of opening texts and critics and its
methods and directions in modern Arabic poetry.
It also aims to show the differences in the point of view between critics
and poetries.
The research depends on dimension vision of selective, and descriptive.

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 06 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
بغداد بغداد في كتب المؤرخين في القرن السابع الهجري ابن الأثير أنموذجاً
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يعد القرن السابع الهجري /الثالث عشر ميلادي من أسوأ القرون التي عصفت بتاريخ أمتنا، وتمثل ذلك بالغزو الصليبي الذي كان في أوجه ومن ثم الغزو المغولي الهمجي الذي انهال على الأمة كما الجراد، أضيف لذلك ما كانت عليه الأحوال الداخلية من نزاعات بين الملوك والسلاطين، ورغم كل ذلك استطاع ثلة من العلماء الأكابر أن يدنوا التاريخ ويسطروه ليبقى محفوظاً للأجيال اللاحقة وصوناً لتراث الأمة العريق.

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 22 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The Acute and Chronic Toxicity of Copper on The Behavioral Responses and Hematological Parameters of Freshwater Fish, Common Carp (Cyprinus carpio L.)
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The present study was conducted to examine toxicological effects of copper sulfate (Cu) in common carp fish (Cyprinus carpio L.). The LC50 (median lethal concentrations) of copper on Cyprinus carpio were 3.64, 3.36, 3.04, 2.65 mg/L respectively. In general, behavioral responses of the fishes exposed to copper included uncontrolled swimming, erratic movements, loss of balance, swam near the water surface with sudden jerky movements. Haematological parameters such, red blood cells (RBC), white blood cells (WBC), haemoglobin (Hb), Packed cell volume (PCV), mean cell volume (MCV) mean cell haemoglobin (MCH), and mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration (MCHC) were studied. The obtained results indicated that the (RBC) and (WBC) have increas

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 22 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measuring and analyzing the relationship between the fiscal policy indicators and the bank stability index in Iraq for the period 2010-2016 using the ARDL model.
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The importance of this research is to clarify the nature and the relationship between the indicators of financial policy and banking stability in Iraq, as well as to find a composite index reflects the state of banking stability in Iraq in order to provide an appropriate means to help policymakers in making appropriate decisions before the occurrence of financial crises.

     Hence, the problem of research is that the fiscal policy has implications for the macro economy and does not rule out its impact on banking stability. Moreover, the central bank does not possess a single indicator that reflects the stability of the banking system, rather than the scattered indicators that depend o

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 07 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Contribution of Behavioral Disorders to Predicting Bullying Patterns in a Sample of Adolescents with Autism Spectrum Disorder: College of Education and Arts - Northern Border University - Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
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The present study aims to identify the role of behavioral disorders (anxiety disorder, behavior disorder "behavior", confrontation and challenge disorder, aggressive behavior) in predicting bullying patterns (verbal, physical, electronic, school) in a sample of adolescents with autism spectrum disorder. For this purpose, the researcher developed scales to measure the behavioral disorders and the bullying patterns among adolescents with autism spectrum disorder. The researcher adopted the descriptive survey approach. The study sample consists of (80) adolescents with autism spectrum disorder with ages range from (15-19 years) and (45-53 years old) in association with israr association for people with special needs in the northern borders

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Effect of White Rot Fungus (Ganoderma sp) as Decomposers on Composting Using Combination of Cattle Feces and Water Hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes) as Organic Matter
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In Indonesia, cattle feces (CF) and water hyacinth (WH) plants are abundant but have not been widely revealed. The use of microorganisms as decomposers in the fermentation process has not been widely applied, so researchers are interested in studying further. This study was to evaluate the effect of the combination of CF with WH on composting by applying white-rot fungal (WRF) (Ganoderma sp) microorganism as a decomposer. A number of six types of treatment compared to R1(ratio of CF:WH)(25%:75%)+WRF; R2(ratio of CF:WH)(50%:50%)+WRF; R3(ratio of CF:WH)(75%:25%)+WRF; R4(ratio of CF:WH)(25%:75%) without WRF; R5(ratio of CF:WH)(50%:50%) without WRF; R6(ratio of CF:WH)

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