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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The reality of smart city development management in the comprehensive development plan for the city of Baghdad 2030
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Abstract

Abstract has many advantages as has historically been one of the regions leading cultural centers . for centuries , it has been a center of commertial and financial operations in Iraq. it is also rich in archeological sites and natural resources, but because of its wars and implementation of urban development strategies are effective and sustainable , so contracted the secretariat of Baghdad with the company (khatib and scirntiffic) for the preparation of the comprehensive development plan for the city of Baghdad in 2030 and funded by the world bank and the fact that the plan was approved ( three stages of it ) and only one phase remains the fourth stage, which is under discussion the aim of the

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 28 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Unplanned Urbanization and Agricultural Land Degradation in Baghdad City from 2003 to 2017: احمد عباس كاظم , ليث زيد عباس
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Several problems have emerged as a result of urban expansion or the connection of urban areas with rural areas. This process has led to the urbanization of rural areas, and to have overlapping edges and margins of areas, which were outside the basic design of the city. Accordingly, the present research assumes that the accelerating growth of Baghdad population has contributed significantly to the process of unplanned urbanization. Thus, the study aims to examine the factors that have led to an increase of urban sprawl at the expense of the agricultural land. The study has thus adopted the descriptive, analytical, and historical approaches relying on the simple linear regression method to predict the phenomenon of urban expansion and its

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 15 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Effectiveness of Health Educational Program on Nurses' Practices toward Chemotherapy-Induced Peripheral Neuropathy for Children at Hematology Center in Baghdad City
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Objectives: the study aims to assess nurses' practices toward chemotherapy-induced peripheral neuropathy (CIPN) for children at the hematology center, and to determine the effectiveness of the health education program on nurses' practices toward CIPN, and to find out the relationships between the effectiveness of Health education program and demographic characteristics of nurses.

Methodology: Use quasi-experimental design in the study (a design that divides the sample into two groups, a study group and a control group, with data collection in three stages). This study was conducted at a hematology center in Baghdad city for the period (from December 16th, 2019 to 8th May 202

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Publication Date
Sun Nov 01 2015
Journal Name
Al-qadisiyah Medical Journal
A survey of dermatophytes isolated from Iraqi patients in Baghdad City
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SJ Mohammed, AA Noaimi, KE Sharquie, JM Karhoot, MS Jebur, JR Abood, A Al-Hamadani, Al-Qadisiyah Medical Journal, 2015 - Cited by 20

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 02 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Assessment of Bio-social Aspect with Cholelithiasis Patients in Baghdad City
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Objective: To find out the relationship between the bio-social aspect with cholelithiasis patients and
demographic characteristics in Baghdad city.
Methodology: A purposive (non-probability) sample of (100) patients, from (20-70) years old, who were
selected from patients who were admitted to hospital at preoperative stage, from Gastroenterology and
Hepatology Hospital, Baghdad Teaching Hospital, Al-Yarmook Teaching Hospital, Al-Karama Teaching
Hospital, Teaching Hospital. A descriptive study was carried out from 25th of June 2004 to the end of October
2004.
An assessment form was constructed for the purpose of the study. Test-retest reliability was employed through
computation of Pearson correlation coefficient.

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 05 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Properties of Tourism Services and Entertainment in the City of Baghdad ( Baghdad Island Park ,Tourism)
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Baghdad Lake Touristic is suffering from a lake of tourism and entertainment services
efficiency provided to their visitors , knowing that this type of services as they are the basics
to achieve economic and socialist development because of their indicators where their goal is
to serve human in city as they represent lungs which population breathe within .
The Parks are resorted as human usually in search of quiet and funny places , away from
the noise of the city and its complex , as well as they give the city a beauty manifestations ,
that give happiness.
The study reached that there is deficiencies in service present, inability to provide
services and inadequate for the population and bad distribution. So the s

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2018
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Using Social Media sites by the Iraqi women and the Achieved The Use of Iraqi Women of Social Networking Sites and the Satisfactions Generated from Them.: A Survey Study of the City of Baghdad
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The problem of this research lies in the fact that there is a lack of accurate scientific perceptions about the size of the use of Iraqi women’s social networking sites and the motives behind this use and the expectations generated by them.
The goals of the research are as follows:
1- Determine the extent of Iraqi women’s use of social networking sites (Facebook, YouTube, twitter, and Instagram).
2- Investigative the motives behind the use of social networking sites by Iraqi women.
3- Detecting the repercussions of Iraqi women’s use of social networking sites (Facebook, you tube, twitter, and Instagram).
The research is classified as a descriptive one. The researchers use the survey methodology. The research commu

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 03 2026
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
The role of Iraqi newspapers in instilling political culture among the public after 2003, a field study on the audience of the city of Baghdad
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The role of Iraqi newspapers in instilling political culture among the public after 2003, a field study on the audience of the city of Baghdad, University of Baghdad, College of Information, Department of Journalism, 2019,
The problem of research is to investigate the role of Iraqi newspapers in instilling the political culture of individuals after 2003, and monitor this role Through the contents and messages provided by the Iraqi newspapers to the public. the research is classified within descriptive research, it adopts the survey methodology and used the questionnaire tool. In fact, the questionnaire was distributed to a sample of 400 individuals that was selected according to the method of multi-stage cluster sample of those who re

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 08 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Study of Apelin-36 and GST Levels with Their Relationship to Lipid and Other Biochemical Parameters in the Prediction of Heart Diseases in PCOS Women Patients
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This work studies the role of serum apelin-36 and Glutathione S-transferases (GST) activity in association with the hormonal, metabolic profiles and their link to the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in healthy and patients' ladies with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). A total of fifty-four (PCOS) patients and thirty-one healthy woman as a control have been studied. The PCOS patients were subdivided on the basis of body-mass-index (BMI), into 2-subgroups (the first group was obese-PCOS with BMI ≥ 30 and the second group was non-obese PCOS MBI<30). Fasting-insulin-levels and Lipid-profile, Homeostatic-model assessment-of-insulin-resistance (HOMA-IR), follicle-stimulating-hormone (FSH), luteinizing-hormone (LH), testosterone and

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 18 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Modified Approach by Using Prediction to Build a Best Threshold in ARX Model with Practical Application
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The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

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