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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 04 2014
Journal Name
American Journal Of Pharmacological Sciences
Self Medication Practice among Iraqi Patients in Baghdad City
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The practice of self medication is continuously increasing worldwide due to its important roles in curing minor conditions or symptoms. This study was conducted to evaluate the factors associated with self medication practice of Iraqi respondents residing in Baghdad City. This study was designed as cross sectional study in which data was collected via direct interviews with respondents using a previously prepared questionnaire. This study investigated 348 respondents from different age groups. The majority of respondents were male aged between 30-60 years, married with secondary or academic level of education and employed with accepted monthly income. The main reason for practicing self medication was previous experience with the same condi

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 13 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Impact of Family Physicians' Practices upon the Quality of Family Medicine Health Care Services at Model Primary Health Care Centers in Baghdad City
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Objective(s): To evaluate the family physicians' practices and to measure its impact upon the quality of family
medicine health care in Baghdad City model primary health care centers.
Methodology: A descriptive study, using the evaluation approach, has evaluated the impact of family physicians'
practices upon quality of healthcare in Baghdad's Model Primary Health Care Centers of Family Medicine. It is
carried out during 15th of May – 20th of August 2017. The study is conducted at five model primary health care
centers of family medicine from two districts; AL-Rusafa and AL-Kurkh. Sample size is calculated to be (76)
family physicians. Convenient sample of (124) patients who are attending these primary health care cen

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Comparison between the BEKK and DVECH Models of Multivariate GARCH Models with Practical Application
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The Purpose of this research is a comparison between two types of multivariate GARCH models BEKK and DVECH to forecast using financial time series which are the series of daily Iraqi dinar exchange rate with dollar, the global daily of Oil price with dollar and the global daily of gold price with dollar for the period from 01/01/2014 till 01/01/2016.The estimation, testing and forecasting process has been computed through the program RATS. Three time series have been transferred to the three asset returns to get the Stationarity, some tests were conducted including Ljung- Box, Multivariate Q and Multivariate ARCH to Returns Series and Residuals Series for both models with comparison between the estimation and for

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of wages and benefits systems on the performance of employees A field study in the General Company for Food Industries in the city of Baghdad
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The research aims to find out the impact of wages and benefits systems on the performance of employees, which included the research community on a sample of employees in the company, and the sample consisted of (50) employees and an employee, A questionnaire composed as prepared (23) paragraph, use the promised statistically methods in data collected by the questionnaire analysis. The research reached a number of results, the most prominent of which were: There is a correlation between wage systems, benefits and performance of employees, and the presence of the impact of the systems of wages and benefits to the performance of employees. The research was presented a set of recommendations including: increasing the effectiveness of

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Evoluation of service system in the general eduction Baghdad hospital using Q GERT
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That the essential contribution of this research is a description of how complex systems analysis service of the properties of the queue in Baghdad Teaching Hospital using a technique network is techniques method (Q - GERT) an acronym of the words:

Queuing theory _ Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique

Any method of assessment and review chart where you will be see the movement flow of patients within the system and after using this portal will be represented system in the form of planned network probabilistic analysis and knowledge of statistical distributions appropriate for times of arrival and departure were using the program ready (Win QSB) and simulatio

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison study of Information Criteria to determine the order of Autoregressive models
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بهذا البحث نقارن معاييرالمعلومات التقليدية (AIC , SIC, HQ , FPE ) مع معيارمعلومات الانحراف المحور (MDIC) المستعملة لتحديد رتبة انموذج الانحدارالذاتي (AR) للعملية التي تولد البيانات,باستعمال المحاكاة وذلك بتوليد بيانات من عدة نماذج للأنحدارالذاتي,عندما خضوع حد الخطأ للتوزيع الطبيعي بقيم مختلفة لمعلماته

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 13 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
The Relationship between Phylogenic Typing and Antimicrobial Susceptibility Patterns forEscherichia coliIsolatedfrom UTIs atMany Hospitals in Baghdad City
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Objective:The current study aime to isolate Escherichia colifrom urinary tract infections(UTIs) in many Baghdad hospitals. The study concentrate on phylogenic groups and this was done based on triplex PCRmethod by primers besieged to three genetic markers, chuA, yjaA and TspE4.C2. Evaluate the relationship of phylogenic groups of E. coli isolates with the antibiotic-non sensitive patterns. Methodology:Four hundredof E.coli bacteria isolated from urine samples from five hospitals in Baghdad city include: Ghazi AL-Hariri, Ibin- Al-Beledi , AL-Iskan , AL-Nooman and AL-Yarmoke hospitals. Phylogenetic categorizatio

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 31 2021
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Role of the executive in federal experiences: a study of selected models
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Receipt date:06/23/2020 accepted date:7/15/2020 Publication date:12/31/2021

Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

The executive authority differs from one country to another, as it differs from a federal state to another according to the nature of the applied political systems, so this research focused on federal states according to their political systems, then going into the details of the executive authority and its role In the federal states by referring to the four federal experiments

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 28 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Unplanned Urbanization and Agricultural Land Degradation in Baghdad City from 2003 to 2017: احمد عباس كاظم , ليث زيد عباس
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Several problems have emerged as a result of urban expansion or the connection of urban areas with rural areas. This process has led to the urbanization of rural areas, and to have overlapping edges and margins of areas, which were outside the basic design of the city. Accordingly, the present research assumes that the accelerating growth of Baghdad population has contributed significantly to the process of unplanned urbanization. Thus, the study aims to examine the factors that have led to an increase of urban sprawl at the expense of the agricultural land. The study has thus adopted the descriptive, analytical, and historical approaches relying on the simple linear regression method to predict the phenomenon of urban expansion and its

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 15 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Effectiveness of Health Educational Program on Nurses' Practices toward Chemotherapy-Induced Peripheral Neuropathy for Children at Hematology Center in Baghdad City
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Objectives: the study aims to assess nurses' practices toward chemotherapy-induced peripheral neuropathy (CIPN) for children at the hematology center, and to determine the effectiveness of the health education program on nurses' practices toward CIPN, and to find out the relationships between the effectiveness of Health education program and demographic characteristics of nurses.

Methodology: Use quasi-experimental design in the study (a design that divides the sample into two groups, a study group and a control group, with data collection in three stages). This study was conducted at a hematology center in Baghdad city for the period (from December 16th, 2019 to 8th May 202

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