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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Latin American Journal Of Solids And Structures
Peak Ground Acceleration Models Predictions Utilizing Two Metaheuristic Optimization Techniques
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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2015
Journal Name
Engineering And Technology Journal
Genetic Based Optimization Models for Enhancing Multi- Document Text Summarization
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Publication Date
Sun Feb 10 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
An Application Domain Based on General Object Oriented Software Models
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Any software application can be divided into four distinct interconnected domains namely, problem domain, usage domain, development domain and system domain. A methodology for assistive technology software development is presented here that seeks to provide a framework for requirements elicitation studies together with their subsequent mapping implementing use-case driven object-oriented analysis for component based software architectures. Early feedback on user interface components effectiveness is adopted through process usability evaluation. A model is suggested that consists of the three environments; problem, conceptual, and representational environments or worlds. This model aims to emphasize on the relationship between the objects

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Mathematical Models Used for Brachytherapy Treatment Planning Dose Calculation Algorithms
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Brachytherapy treatment is primarily used for the certain handling kinds of cancerous tumors. Using radionuclides for the study of tumors has been studied for a very long time, but the introduction of mathematical models or radiobiological models has made treatment planning easy. Using mathematical models helps to compute the survival probabilities of irradiated tissues and cancer cells. With the expansion of using HDR-High dose rate Brachytherapy and LDR-low dose rate Brachytherapy for the treatment of cancer, it requires fractionated does treatment plan to irradiate the tumor. In this paper, authors have discussed dose calculation algorithms that are used in Brachytherapy treatment planning. Precise and less time-consuming calculations

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 28 2017
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Dose Dependent Anti-inflammatory Effect of Ammi majus Alcoholic Extract in Rat: Chronic Study
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During treatment of inflammatory diseases, many conventional therapies (non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs) used to relief pain and inflammation. Chronic use of  the intended drugs is frequently associated with serious side effect, which may lead to discontinuation of treatment . The efficacy and dose- response effect of ammi majus extraxt  (2 , 4, 8 , 16, and 32 mg/rat) were assessed using  formalin to induce paw edema in rats as a model of chronic inflammation respectively. In this study,  42 rats were used and allocated into 7  groups each containing 6 rats, representing control (Distilled  water) , standard (piroxicam ) and test extract ( 2 , 4 , 8 , 16 and 32 mg/rat of Ammi majus alcoholic e

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 18 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Effect of Periodontal Therapy on Serum and Salivary Interleukin-2 Levels in Chronic Periodontitis
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Background: Interleukine-2 is a multifunctional cytokine, considered a central regulator of host resistance against a variety of pathogens and has been recently demonstrated to exert an active role in the pathogenesis of periodontal diseases. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of scaling and root planning on level of IL-2 in serum and saliva of patients with chronic generalized periodontitis, in relation to clinical parameters. Materials and Methods: A total of 50 subjects were enrolled, of which 25 had chronic generalized periodontitis and 25 periodontally healthy subjects as control. The clinical parameters included: gingival index, pocket probing depth, clinical attachment level and bleeding on probing. The level of

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Corrosion Inhibition of Medium Carbon Steel in the Acidic Medium Using Alcoholic and Aqueous Extract of Kujarat Tea Plant
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This study deals with the corrosion inhibition of metal corrosion process of medium carbon steel using 1M HCl for kinetic studies and rate reaction determination. The weight loss method is applied to pieces of Medium carbon steel divided to Cubans with dimensions (0.4*2*2.4) cm , and use Tafel Extrapolation Method, the samples were polished using carbide silicon paper with dimensions of (180,200,400,600,800,1000). The samples were immersed in the alcoholic medium ethanol at a temperature 293K for 3hr. Natural inhibitor Kujarat Tea (Hibiscus sabdarriffa L.) is used which is extracted in aqueous and alcoholic medium, different concentrations (1000،2000, 3000) ppm have been used ; The best concentration found through the results is a conce

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 20 2024
Journal Name
Aip Conference Proceeding
Evaluation and production of predictive maps on the impact of climate factors on the the land cover for the Baghdad city for the period (1999-2021)
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The general objective of the research is to better understand changes in land cover and their impact on climatic factors by measuring changes in land cover for the Baghdad city for the period 1999-2021 and evaluating changes in land cover and measuring changes in climatic factors (relative humidity and evaporation). This study from 1999 to 2021 and in two different seasons: the April of the growing season and August the dry season. When using the supervised classification method to determine the differences, the results showed remarkable changes, the study showed the spatial variations in LC from 1999 to 2021 as follows: increase in the vegetation and water bodies during April and decrease this in August while the soil and built up decreas

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2016
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Prevalence of bacteria isolated from patients with burn infection at a burn hospital in Baghdad and study of their antimicrobial susceptibility patterns
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Background: The skin functions as a barrier to the external environment, damage to this barrier following a burn disrupts the innate immune system and increases susceptibility to bacterial infection. Objective: This study was carried out to determine the bacterial isolates and study their antimicrobial susceptibility in burned wound infections at one burn's hospital in Baghdad.Type of study:Cross-sectional study.Methods: The bacteria were identified at species level by using Analytic Profile Index (API) system and The antimicrobial susceptibility test was performed according to Kirby-Bauer (disk diffusion) technique.Results: Over a period of one year (from October 2014 to October 2015). Out of 848 patients with different degrees of burns

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Variable Selection Using aModified Gibbs Sampler Algorithm with Application on Rock Strength Dataset
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Variable selection is an essential and necessary task in the statistical modeling field. Several studies have triedto develop and standardize the process of variable selection, but it isdifficultto do so. The first question a researcher needs to ask himself/herself what are the most significant variables that should be used to describe a given dataset’s response. In thispaper, a new method for variable selection using Gibbs sampler techniqueshas beendeveloped.First, the model is defined, and the posterior distributions for all the parameters are derived.The new variable selection methodis tested usingfour simulation datasets. The new approachiscompared with some existingtechniques: Ordinary Least Squared (OLS), Least Absolute Shrinkage

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