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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Sun May 28 2017
Journal Name
Curr Res Microbiol Biotechnol
Human Cytomegalovirus Immunoglobulin G (IgG) and Immunoglobulin M (IgM) Seropositivity among Pregnant Women in Baghdad City and Their Relations to the Abortion Factors
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Publication Date
Mon Mar 15 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Depression status in relation to dental caries and salivary C-Reactive Protein among 17 years old secondary school female in Baghdad City/Iraq.
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Background: Depression is a state of low mood and aversion to activity, it can affect a person's thoughts, behavior and sense of well-being. It can affect oral health and lead to an increased risk of dental caries. Dental caries is the most common oral infectious diseases that stresses the immune system and causes changes in cellular and molecular components of peripheral blood and C-Reactive Protein is one of these components, considered a key biomarker of inflammation. This study was conducted to assess the effect of depression status on dental caries among 17 years old secondary school female students in relation to salivary C-Reactive Protein. Materials and Methods: A cross sectional study was carried and the whole sample composed of

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The social responsibility to the visual media and its role in spreading the culture of the environment protection / field research to a sample of students of the University of Baghdad
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        This paper deals with social responsibility visible to the media and the role they play in spreading the culture of environmental protection, and make research on a sample of the University of Baghdad consisting students from 150 students, male and female were distributed questionnaire form on the sample to obtain the required information has been questionnaire included axes distributed questions achieve the objectives of the search, and after the form data were analyzed using statistical program spss results show that the visual media and its role in spreading the culture of environmental protection form averages arithmetic high, indicating a rise in the influence of th

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Thermo Elasto-Plastic Analysis of Rotating Axisymmetrical Bodies Using Modified Von-Mises Yield Criterion
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In the present work, the behavior of thick-walled cylinder of elasto-plastic material (polymeric material) has been studied analytically. The study is based on modified Von-Mises yield criterion (for non metallic material). The equations of stress distribution are obtained for the cylinder under general cases of elastic expansion, plastic initiation and elastic-plastic expansion.

        A computer program is developed for evaluating the stress distribution. The solution is carried out for worst boundary conditions when the cylinder is subjected to the combination of pressure load, inertia load, and temperature gradient.

        The results are presente

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Determining the Quality and Quantity of Bioethanol Production using Golden Shower (Cassica fistula) Fruit
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Depletion of fossil fuel is one of the main reasons why the bioethanol has become popular. It is a renewable energy source. In order to meet the great demand of bioethanol, it is best that the bioethanol production is from cheap raw materials. Since the golden shower fruit is not being utilized and is considered as waste material, hence, this study was conducted to make use of the large volume of the residue as feedstock to test its potential for bioethanol extraction.The main goal of this study is to obtain the most volume of bioethanol from the golden shower fruit liquid residue by the factors, days of fermentation (3, 5, and 7 days) and sugar concentration (15, 20 and 25 brix) of the liquid residue. Also, part of the study is to compu

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 08 2002
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Laser
Laser Detection and Tracking System Using an Array of Photodiodes with Fuzzy Logic controller
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In this work laser detection and tracking system (LDTS) is designed and implemented using a fuzzy logic controller (FLC). A 5 mW He-Ne laser system and an array of nine PN photodiodes are used in the detection system. The FLC is simulated using MATLAB package and the result is stored in a lock up table to use it in the real time operation of the system. The results give a good system response in the target detection and tracking in the real time operation.

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2016
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Prevalence of bacteria isolated from patients with burn infection at a burn hospital in Baghdad and study of their antimicrobial susceptibility patterns
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Background: The skin functions as a barrier to the external environment, damage to this barrier following a burn disrupts the innate immune system and increases susceptibility to bacterial infection. Objective: This study was carried out to determine the bacterial isolates and study their antimicrobial susceptibility in burned wound infections at one burn's hospital in Baghdad.Type of study:Cross-sectional study.Methods: The bacteria were identified at species level by using Analytic Profile Index (API) system and The antimicrobial susceptibility test was performed according to Kirby-Bauer (disk diffusion) technique.Results: Over a period of one year (from October 2014 to October 2015). Out of 848 patients with different degrees of burns

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Simultaneous Determination of Binary Mixture of Estradiol and Progesterone Using Different Spectrophotometric Methods
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Four rapid, accurate and very simple derivative spectrophotometric techniques were developed for the quantitative determination of binary mixtures of estradiol (E2) and progesterone (PRG) formulated as a capsule. Method I is the first derivative zero-crossing technique, derivative amplitudes were detected at the zero-crossing wavelength of 239.27 and 292.51 nm for the quantification of estradiol and 249.19 nm for Progesterone. Method II is ratio subtraction, progesterone was determined at λmax 240 nm after subtraction of interference exerted by estradiol. Method III is modified amplitude subtraction, which was established using derivative spectroscopy and mathematical manipulations. Method IIII is the absorbance ratio technique, absorba

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Study the Quality of Nasopharyngeal plans Using Evaluation Indexes of IMRT and VMAT Treatment planning Techniques
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Radiation treatment has long been the conventional approach for treating nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC) tumors due to its anatomic features, biological characteristics, and radiosensitivity. The most common treatment for nasopharyngeal carcinoma is radiotherapy. This study aimed to assess the better quality of radiotherapy treatment techniques using intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) and volumetric-modulated arc therapy (VMAT). The VMAT and IMRT are comparative techniques. Forty patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma and forwarded for radiotherapy were treated with both advanced techniques, IMRT and VMAT, using eclipse software from Varian. The x-ray energy was set at 6 MV. The total prescribed dose was 70 Gy. The results show that the

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Information and communication technology and its impact on the quality of service of the tourism sector and hotel: An analytical study in selected hotels in the Iraqi capital Baghdad
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   The research statement to the amount of the contribution of information and communication technology in the quality of tourism and hotel services, and determine the relationship between the impact of information and communication and the quality of tourism services technology, The importance of the research is to establish the philosophical thinking of the nature of variables, as a modern administrative terminology and employ them towards the quality of tourism and hotel services, the research dealt with a problem expressed by a number of intellectual and practical questions, Was formulated based on the current situation witnessed by the tourism sector and hotel in Iraq, and the real gap was the lack of awareness of the impo

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