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jeasiq-720
Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Annals Of Parasitology
The role of intestinal protozoa in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbation
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chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a common respiratory disease with episodes of exacerbation. Variable factors including infectious pathogen can predispose for this exacerbation. The aim of this study is to evaluate the role of intestinal protozoa in COPD exacerbation. A total of 56 patients with COPD were included in this study. Patients were categorized into two groups based on the frequency of exacerbation during the last 6 months: those with ≤1 exacerbation (32 patients) and those with ≥2 exacerbations (24 patients). Stool specimens from each patient were collected two times (one week interval) examined for intestinal parasite. In univariate analysis, rural residence and parasitic infection were more common among patie

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 30 2013
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Chronic Kidny Disease and Risk of coronary Artery Disease,Aprospective study
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AbstractBackground:Reduced glomeular filtration rate isassociated with increasedmorbidity in patientswith coronary arterydisease.Objectives :To analyze the declining eGFR andmortality risks in a patients with Chronic KidneyDisease and have had Coronary Artery Diseaseincluding risk factors .Patientsand Methods:The study included (160)patientsbetween the ages of 16 and 87years.Glomerular filtration rate was estimated (eGFR)using the Modification of Diet in Renal Diseaseequationand was categorized in the ranges<60 mL· min−1 per 1.73 m2and≥ 60 ml/min/1.73 m2.Baseline risk factors were analyzed by category ofeGFR,.The studied patients in emergencydepartment, were investigatedusing Coxproportional hazard models adjusting for traditiona

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 15 2022
Journal Name
Bionatura
Chronic Myeloid Leukemia: A retrospective study of clinical and pathological features
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Chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), is one of the myeloproliferative disorders with a characteristic cytogenetic abnormality resulting in the BCR-ABL fusion gene. Imatinib Mesylate is an effective agent for treating patients in all stages of CML. According to the annual Iraqi cancer registry 2019, the total number of chronic myeloproliferative disorders was 338. The percentage and incidence rates were 0.94% and 0.86%, respectively, with a higher incidence rate in males than females (1.12 in males and 0.60 in females). In this registry, no details about CML, so this study aimed to estimate the number of CML patients who attended the national center of hematology from 2005 until 2020 and investigate their epidemiological and clinic-pathol

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 15 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Influence of smoking on salivary interleukin-8 levels in chronic periodontitis
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Background: Smoking is the major environmental risk factor that has been associated with the pathogenesis and progression of periodontal diseases. Interleukin-8 (IL-8), has been associated with the immunopathology of periodontitis. Objectives: To determine the influence of smoking on salivary Interleukin-8 level from smokers and non-smokers with periodontitis and periodontally healthy control subjects.

Materials and Methods: Un-stimulated saliva samples were collected of 90 participants: 30 smokers and 30 non-smokers with chronic periodontitis, as well as 30 periodontally healthy control subjects. The clinical parameters such as the pocket depth, clinical attachment loss, plaque index, and gingiv

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Medical Journal Of Babylon
Impact of chronic hepatitis B virus infection on bone mineral density
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Background: Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a common health problem that has a worldwide distribution. Apart from the direct effect of the virus on the liver, there are many extrahepatic manifestations among which the probable effect on bone turnover associated with low bone mineral density (BMD). Objectives: This study aimed to determine the association between treated and untreated chronic HBV infection with BMD. Methods: This is a cross-sectional study which included a total of 48 patients with chronic HBV (28 patients treated with tenofovir-disoproxil-fumarate [TDF] antiviral drug and 20 patients have not yet started treatment). Other age- and sex-matched 30 apparently healthy individuals were recruited to represent the hea

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 30 2014
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Microbiology of active chronic otitis media: in comparison with abroad studies
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Background: Chronic otitis media (COM) of mucosal or squamous type is a common problem in otolaryngology practice, the active form of COM is characterized by discharge of pus and is treated by antibiotics to start with, the appropriate antibiotic should be prescribed to avoid antibiotic abuse and guarantee good outcome. Objectives:The objective of this study is to identify the causative organisms of active chronic active otitis media both (mucosal, squamous) type and test their sensitivity to various anti- microbial agents &compare with abroad studies.Methods:A prospective study was done on eighty patients, different ages and sexes were taken and carful history and examination was done, examination under microscope was done with carf

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 30 2008
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Using of Laser Therapy in the Treatment of Patients With Plantar Fasciitis
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Background: planter fasciitis is a common condition
seen in adults and sport men, it is characterized by dull
pain in the heel, especially when getting up and
standing on the foot in the morning or after sitting for a
long time.
Recently low level laser therapy is used as a method of
treatment.
Objective: to evaluate the benefit of laser therapy in
treatment of planter fasciitis.
Methods: Out of twenty five patients with planter
fasciitis exposed to laser therapy. Laser used is (diode
type) given in two cessions per week for four weeks,
time for each cession is about (12 minutes).
Results: complete recovery seen in (32%) of patients,
moderate improvement in (16%), mild improvement in
(24%), no

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
3-D Packing in Container using Teaching Learning Based Optimization Algorithm
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The paper aims to propose Teaching Learning based Optimization (TLBO) algorithm to solve 3-D packing problem in containers. The objective which can be presented in a mathematical model is optimizing the space usage in a container. Besides the interaction effect between students and teacher, this algorithm also observes the learning process between students in the classroom which does not need any control parameters. Thus, TLBO provides the teachers phase and students phase as its main updating process to find the best solution. More precisely, to validate the algorithm effectiveness, it was implemented in three sample cases. There was small data which had 5 size-types of items with 12 units, medium data which had 10 size-types of items w

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 10 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Removal of Suspended Solids Using Pumice Stone in Integrated Fixed Film Activated Sludge Process
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Wastewater treatment plants operators prefer to make adjustments because they are more cost effective, to use the existing tank instead of building new ones. In this case an imported materials would be  used as bio-loads to increase biomass and thus maintain efficiency as the next organic loading increases.In the present study, a local substance "pumice stone" was used as a biological carrier in the aeration tank, and the experiments were carried out in five stages: without biological carriers, filling ratio of 4%,10%,20%, and25% with pumice stone, the maximum organic loading at each stage (1.1884, 1.2144, 1.9432, 2.7768, 3.3141)g BOD /l.d respectively.Other experiments were carried out to determine the best filling ratio, the SS remova

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2015
Journal Name
Sust Journal Of Engineering And Computer Science (jecs)
Virtual failure influence of Roseires dam on Khartoum city using HEC-RAS Hydraulic simulation modeling
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Dam break is series phenomenon that can result in fatal consequences and loss of properties. Unfortunately, the observed consequences can only be available after the dam breaks. Therefore, it is important to anticipate what will happen prior to dam break to issue suitable warning and locate the possible risk areas. This study attempts to simulate the case of dam break in Blue Nile at Roseires dam and see its consequences downstream. Roseires dam lies at a distance of 630 km south of Khartoum, Sennar dam lies at about 260 km downstream of Roseires dam. In this study hydraulic model is developed based of Hydraulic Engineering Centre (HEC), River Analysis System (RAS), and HEC- RAS. The HEC-RAS based model is calibrated and validated usi

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