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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 12 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The servant leadership and its impact in organizational trust An analytical study in oil products distribution company / Baghdad
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Abstract

The research aims at the relationship between Servant leadership dimensions test as an independent variable and an organizational trust as a variable dependent. Thus it was necessary to answer the following question: Is there a correlation relationship and impact between Servant leadership dimensions and organizational trust? To investigate the contents of the answer, the researcher selected a group of employees in Oil Products Distribution Company / Baghdad. The researcher adopted the analytical descriptive approach in completing his research which dealt with a random sample of (190) individuals representing the research society out of the total number of (376) person from the middle and high Leaders. Depending

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 13 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Ethical Behavior and its Relationship to Social Media Uses among Female Students at Preparatory Schools in Baghdad
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The current study aims to assess the ethical behavior among female students who are using a social media network in addition to describe the variables of interest (social media use and ethical behavior) among participants, in which to find out the effects of social media on the ethical behavior of high school female students. A quantitative approach was adopted to collect the relevant data for the study, six schools included in this study from the six directorates of education in Baghdad city. Subsequently, SPSS software was applied to analyze the relevant data of the study. To achieve the research objectives, a questionnaire was composed of three sections: Part I: deals with the student's demographic information. Part II: deals with inf

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Study of a-Si:H Absorption Edge Using Dunstan’s Model
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The optical absorption data of Hydrogenated Amorphous Silicon was analyzed using a Dunstan model of optical absorption in amorphous semiconductors. This model introduces disorder into the band-band absorption through a linear exponential distribution of local energy gaps, and it accounts for both the Urbach and Tauc regions of the optical absorption edge.Compared to other models of similar bases, such as the O’Leary and Guerra models, it is simpler to understand mathematically and has a physical meaning. The optical absorption data of Jackson et al and Maurer et al were successfully interpreted using Dunstan’s model. Useful physical parameters are extracted especially the band to the band energy gap , which is the energy gap in the a

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Wear Behavior Performance of Polymeric Matrix Composites Using Taguchi Experiments
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This research estimates the effect of independent factors like filler  (3%, 6%, 9%, 11% weight fraction), normal load (5N, 10N, 15N), and time sliding (5,7 , 9 minutes) on wear behavior of unsaturated polyester resin reinforced with jute fiber and waste eggshell and, rice husk powder composites by utilizing a statistical approach. The specimens polymeric composite prepared from resin unsaturated polyester filled with (4% weight fraction) jute fiber, and (3%, 6%, 9%, 11% weight fraction) eggshell, and rice husk by utilizing (hand lay-up) molding. Dry sliding wear experiments were carried utilizing a standard (pin on disc test setup) following a well designed empirical schedule that depends on Taguchi’s experimental design L9 (MINIT

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 29 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Agricultural Sciences
EFFECT OF DIFF. SUBS. AND SPRAYING WITH K2SIO3 ON THE ROOT AND VEGETATIVE GROWTH OF L. W. PLANTS IN BAGHDAD CITY
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This study was aimed to investigate the response of two types of ornamental herbaceous plants (Wedelia trilobata and Jacobaea maritima 'Cirrus') to different agricultural environments and the application of potassium silicates to the living walls system LWS (Felt layer system) under the climate conditions of Baghdad city. Each experiment involved the cultivation of a different plant species, and the study duration was from September 15, 2021, to August 1, 2022. A Strip-Plot Design experiment was conducted using two factors: factor M with four levels of substrates (50% peatmoss and perlite (M1), 50% Vermicompost and perlite (M2), 50% Water hyacinth compost and perlite (M3), 50% wheat straw compost and perlite (M4)) and factor S with

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Application of Artificial Neural Network for Predicting Iron Concentration in the Location of Al-Wahda Water Treatment Plant in Baghdad City
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Iron is one of the abundant elements on earth that is an essential element for humans and may be a troublesome element in water supplies.  In this research an AAN model was developed to predict iron concentrations in the location of Al- Wahda water treatment plant in Baghdad city by water quality assessment of iron concentrations at seven WTPs up stream Tigris River. SPSS software was used to build the ANN model. The input data were iron concentrations in the raw water for the period 2004-2011. The results indicated the best model predicted Iron concentrations at Al-Wahda WTP with a coefficient of determination 0.9142. The model used one hidden layer with two nodes and the testing error was 0.834. The ANN model coul

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 15 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Impact of Brix 3000 and conventional restorative treatment on pain reaction during caries removal among group of children in Baghdad city
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Background: Pain and the usage of local anesthetic agents are still real problem in pediatric dentistry, for these reasons, the use of minimal invasive dentistry (MID) in regard to the patient comfort is important especially for children, anxious and uncooperative patients. Chemomechanical caries removal (CMCR) methods involve the selective removal of the carious dentine hence it avoided the painful removal of the sound dentine and the anxiety resulted due to the vibration of the hand piece which is also decreased thus it appears to be more acceptable and comfortable to the patient. Aims of this study: This study was conducted among group of children to assess and compare the anxiety rating scale (during and after treatment) between the

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of academic leadership practices in activating the human capital / A field research of a Iraqi universities sample / Baghdad
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The aims of this study to diagnose the role of the (relationship and impact) Academic driving practices dimensions (model the way, inspire a shared vision, challenge the process, enable others to act, encourage the heart ) in the activation of human capital (investment and development) for (knowledge, skills, expertise, creative and training capabilities) in a sample of university professors in Baghdad city(Baghdad University, Al Mustansiriya University, University of Technology). (367 )samples were distributed to (232 at the University of Baghdad, 97 at Al-Mustansiriya University and 38 at the University of Technology). The goals of descriptive analytical method research have been used, questionnaire has been a main tool for dat

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Int. J. Nonlinear Anal. Appl.
Analysis of a harvested discrete-time biological models
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This work aims to analyze a three-dimensional discrete-time biological system, a prey-predator model with a constant harvesting amount. The stage structure lies in the predator species. This analysis is done by finding all possible equilibria and investigating their stability. In order to get an optimal harvesting strategy, we suppose that harvesting is to be a non-constant rate. Finally, numerical simulations are given to confirm the outcome of mathematical analysis.

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 31 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Appropriate for Use Under Advanced Manu Facturing Technology: An Application in Baghdad Soft Drinks Company " Private Contribution
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Big developments in technology have led to upset the balance of ideas, given of its own post new properties for products not provided by traditional technology, especially economic units operating within the industrial sector, and therefore it is important to develop the Iraqi industrial sector and interest to do its vital role in light Of progress technological.The research aims to Find the use of advanced manufacturing technologies that lead to customized production and quality appropriate whether they are low quality and low cost or low cost and suitable quality or high quality and high cost to win customer satisfaction.While the important conclusions is that the application of advanced manufacturing technology is not limited to techn

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