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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 29 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Agricultural Sciences
EFFECT OF DIFF. SUBS. AND SPRAYING WITH K2SIO3 ON THE ROOT AND VEGETATIVE GROWTH OF L. W. PLANTS IN BAGHDAD CITY
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This study was aimed to investigate the response of two types of ornamental herbaceous plants (Wedelia trilobata and Jacobaea maritima 'Cirrus') to different agricultural environments and the application of potassium silicates to the living walls system LWS (Felt layer system) under the climate conditions of Baghdad city. Each experiment involved the cultivation of a different plant species, and the study duration was from September 15, 2021, to August 1, 2022. A Strip-Plot Design experiment was conducted using two factors: factor M with four levels of substrates (50% peatmoss and perlite (M1), 50% Vermicompost and perlite (M2), 50% Water hyacinth compost and perlite (M3), 50% wheat straw compost and perlite (M4)) and factor S with

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 15 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Impact of Brix 3000 and conventional restorative treatment on pain reaction during caries removal among group of children in Baghdad city
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Background: Pain and the usage of local anesthetic agents are still real problem in pediatric dentistry, for these reasons, the use of minimal invasive dentistry (MID) in regard to the patient comfort is important especially for children, anxious and uncooperative patients. Chemomechanical caries removal (CMCR) methods involve the selective removal of the carious dentine hence it avoided the painful removal of the sound dentine and the anxiety resulted due to the vibration of the hand piece which is also decreased thus it appears to be more acceptable and comfortable to the patient. Aims of this study: This study was conducted among group of children to assess and compare the anxiety rating scale (during and after treatment) between the

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Application of Artificial Neural Network for Predicting Iron Concentration in the Location of Al-Wahda Water Treatment Plant in Baghdad City
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Iron is one of the abundant elements on earth that is an essential element for humans and may be a troublesome element in water supplies.  In this research an AAN model was developed to predict iron concentrations in the location of Al- Wahda water treatment plant in Baghdad city by water quality assessment of iron concentrations at seven WTPs up stream Tigris River. SPSS software was used to build the ANN model. The input data were iron concentrations in the raw water for the period 2004-2011. The results indicated the best model predicted Iron concentrations at Al-Wahda WTP with a coefficient of determination 0.9142. The model used one hidden layer with two nodes and the testing error was 0.834. The ANN model coul

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 31 2026
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Satellite TV sites among the Iraqi public's sources about the demonstrations Field study in Baghdad 2020
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This research is based on the idea of showing the extent to which the public relies on satellite channels as sources for news of the demonstrations in Iraq .This was the essence of the problem for which the researcher set several goals, including knowing the public’s confidence in the news of these satellite channels and comparing them with others. The researcher chose an available intended sample of (117) respondents in Baghdad - Karkh and Rusafa by adopting the survey method and applying a questionnaire form and the theory of media dependence for the period from 15/11/2019 to 1/1/2021 . By using statistical methods, the researcher reached many results, the most important of which are: Satellite channels are a source for 79% of the pu

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 31 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Appropriate for Use Under Advanced Manu Facturing Technology: An Application in Baghdad Soft Drinks Company " Private Contribution
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Big developments in technology have led to upset the balance of ideas, given of its own post new properties for products not provided by traditional technology, especially economic units operating within the industrial sector, and therefore it is important to develop the Iraqi industrial sector and interest to do its vital role in light Of progress technological.The research aims to Find the use of advanced manufacturing technologies that lead to customized production and quality appropriate whether they are low quality and low cost or low cost and suitable quality or high quality and high cost to win customer satisfaction.While the important conclusions is that the application of advanced manufacturing technology is not limited to techn

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
Aip Conference Proceedings
Examining the seasonal correlation between SSN, T-Isndex, and F10.7 parameters during solar cycles 23 and 24
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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Leadership skills in boos department in collages of Baghdad University from staff point of view
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                           This research   included recent skills of transformed ieadership ,its five aspect and they are(transformed,speech of boos,chorus co-0perative work,behavior adjustment of values,common view point,understanding,and apologizing)Thescale is being made for these five aspects and it  done on sample of Baghdad university staff and the sample consist of(424)teacher of both genders.The study found out existence of  transformedskills of leadership    for  girls  .             &

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 03 2018
Journal Name
Al-academy
The Interchange of Sign Transformation between Locality and Universality in the Iraqi Theatre, "Romeo and Juliet in Baghdad Show" - A Model
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The research deals with the interchange of the sign transformed from the universal to the local in the theatrical show through the direction processing in the production of a communicative artistic discourse and message, thus making the process of reading the speech and recognizing it by taking into account the cultural differences, customs and local rituals of each country, region, or area. The problem of the research was focused on answering the following question: What are the requirements for the sign in terms of its transformation between the universality and locality in the read-out?

               The importance of research is to determine the requiremen

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The effect of intellectual capital on the Total quality management of higher education and scientific research institutions in Baghdad
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         The purpose and goal of the research revolve around the diagnosis of intellectual capital as the logical indicator to study an effective human resource management practice and its influential role in determining the overall quality management of higher education institutions and scientific research in Baghdad.

       To achieve the purpose of the research, an upgraded standard questionnaire was used to collect data and distribute it to the selected sample in a statistical manner from the study population of (5) institutions affiliated with the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Resear

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Int. J. Nonlinear Anal. Appl.
Analysis of a harvested discrete-time biological models
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This work aims to analyze a three-dimensional discrete-time biological system, a prey-predator model with a constant harvesting amount. The stage structure lies in the predator species. This analysis is done by finding all possible equilibria and investigating their stability. In order to get an optimal harvesting strategy, we suppose that harvesting is to be a non-constant rate. Finally, numerical simulations are given to confirm the outcome of mathematical analysis.

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