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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 30 2024
Journal Name
Wiadomości Lekarskie
Oral health status in relation to nutritional status amongst orphans aged (6-12) years in Baghdad city, Iraq
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Aim

Aims: Assess selected measures of oral health: Enamel defect, eruption of permanent teeth, dental caries, investigate the nutritional status of orphans by physical examination and relate the nutritional status with measures of oral health.

Material and methods

Materials and methods: 192 orphans aged of 6 and 12 who were living in all orphanages in Baghdad, Iraq, were studied. Enamel defect was derived from the WHO's modified developmental defects of enamel (DDE) index, investigation of caries using Decay -Missing – Filled index for permanent teeth (DMF), the decay-missing filled index for primary teeth (dmf) index and all of the perm

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 13 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Oral health status in relation to nutritional status among institutionalized autistic children and adolescents in Baghdad city, Iraq
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Background: The autism spectrum disorder (ASD) describes a wide range of symptoms, including difficulty with social interaction and communication skills. Controversial thinking about oral health of children with ASD, in general may have a lower hygiene level than healthy individuals, low caries rate and high body weight in comparison to healthy children. This study was conducted to assess the oral health status in relation to nutritional status among institutionalized autistic children and adolescents. Materials and methods: From 12 institutes in Baghdad, the study group contained 364 child and adolescent with ASD (Male= 294, Female=70), while control group included 441 normal child and adolescent (Male=357, Female=84) from primary and seco

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Publication Date
Tue Apr 01 2025
Journal Name
Al-rafidain Journal Of Medical Sciences ( Issn 2789-3219 )
Serological and Molecular Detection of Prevalence of Human Parvovirus (B19) in Beta Thalassemia Major Patients in Baghdad
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Background: Beta thalassemia major (β-TM) is an inheritable condition with many complications, especially in children. The blood-borne viral infection was proposed as a risk factor due to the recurrent blood transfusion regimen (hemotherapy) as human parvovirus B19 (B19V). Objective: This study investigated the B19V seroprevalence, DNA presence, B19V viral load, and B19V genotypes in β-TM patients and blood donors. Methods: This is a cross-sectional study incorporating 180 subjects, segregated into three distinct groups each of 60 patients, namely control, β-TM, and β-TM infected with Hepatitis C Virus (HCV).  For the B19V prevalence in the studied group, the ELISA technique and real-time PCR were used. The genotyping was follo

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 30 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Local drug delivery systems for treating periodontal diseases (A review of literature)
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In this review of literature, the light will be concentrated on the local drugs delivery systems for treating the periodontal diseases. Principles, types, advantages and indications of each type will be discussed in this paper.

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 02 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Local Drug Delivery Systems for Treating Periodontal Diseases: A Review of Literature
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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The diagnosis and determine the level of balance between the time available for life and work: The case study of a sample of doctors hospitals City of Medicine
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Purpose: The diagnosis and determine the level of balance between the time available for life and work with the doctors in the hospitals of t the six hospitals in the City of Medicine.

Design / methodology / Approach: It has been relying on ready-scale, to make sure the diagnosis and determine the level of balance between the time available for life and work, where they were distributed on Form 42 doctors in the six hospitals in the City of Medicine, were analyzed by software (Nvivo and SPSS v.22).

Results: The results showed that there is a good level of balance between the time available for life and work with the doctors.

Research limitations: The diffi

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 02 2023
Journal Name
Contemporary Trends And Issues In Science Education
Using Multi-faceted Rasch Models to Understand Middle School Students’ Argumentation Around Scenarios Grounded in Socio-scientific Issues
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Publication Date
Sun Sep 06 2009
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Estimation of cellular immune response by evaluation of some cytokines in immunopathogenesis of chronic hepatitis B and C pre- and post- treated Iraqi patients (in vivo and in vitro)
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Two groups of chronic hepatitis B and C virus patients were divided into Pre-treated patients (25 CHB patients with positive HBs Ag for more than 6 months and 40 CHC patients), and post-treated patients [12 CHB patients (4, 6, and 2 were treated with lamivudine, IFN-? and combination of LMV + IFN-? respectively), and 27 patients for CHC (3, 13 and 11 patients were treated with Ribavirin, IFN-? and combination therapy (RBV+ IFN-?) respectively].These patients were followed up for 6 months. By using ELISA technique, levels of IL-6, IL-10, IFN-? and TNF-? were measured in vivo and in vitro (supernatant of PBMCs stimulated with PHA) and compared with healthy control. The mean level of IL-6, IL-10 and TNF-? in CHB patients showed significant dif

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 07 2019
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
تعيين عنصر الزئبق السام بتراكيز نزرة في نماذج غذائية ومائية مختلفة باستخدام منظومة بخار الزئبق البارد المرتبطة مع جهاز الامتصاص الذري اللهبي
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الخلاصة

     يتضمن البحث تعيين عنصر الزئبق السام بتراكيزنزرة عالية الدقة (نانوغرام) باستخدام منظومة يخار الزئبق البارد لنماذج غذائية (لحوم حمراء ، لحوم بيضاء ) مختلفة ونماذج مائية (ماء النهر، مياه صناعية ، ماء الشرب) وربط المنظومة بتقنية الامتصاص الذري اللهبي.

     ان عنصر الزئبق من اشد العناصر سمية وان التراكيز المسموح بها عالميا لايتعدى جزء واحد

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Comparison Study of Electromyography Using Wavelet and Neural Network
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In this paper we present a method to analyze five types with fifteen wavelet families for eighteen different EMG signals. A comparison study is also given to show performance of various families after modifying the results with back propagation Neural Network. This is actually will help the researchers with the first step of EMG analysis. Huge sets of results (more than 100 sets) are proposed and then classified to be discussed and reach the final.

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