Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous varia

Bending effects on the transmission of optical signal are investigated on a single mode
optical fiber (SMOF) of 10 m length, core radius of 5 μm and optical refractive index difference
0.003. The bending radii (R) were between 0.08 and 0.0015 m. A great decrease in the amplitude is
shown for radii below 0.01 m. Sudden break down occurs for radii less than 0.0015 m. Birefringence
(B) is difficult to measure for long fibers. Meanwhile, B was found by comparing with calibrated
fiber of the same properties but of length of 0.075 m. The results show an increase in propagation
constant (Δβ) and the decrease in beat length (Lb), and show that bending decreases the critical radius
of curvature (Rc) related to B. The chang

This study came to discuss the subject of industries dependent on petrochemical industries in Iraq (plastic as a model) during the period 2005–2020, and the study concluded that the plastic industries contribute to areas of advancement and progress and opportunities to deal efficiently with the challenges posed by the new variables, the most important of which is the information revolution. communications and trade liberalization, and this is what contributes to the competitiveness of these industries. And because the petrochemical industry in Iraq has an active role in establishing plastic industrial clusters and clusters of micro, small, and medium industries by providing the necessary feedstock for these industries in various fields

The cheif aim of the present investigation is to develop Leslie Gower type three species food chain model with prey refuge. The intra-specific competition among the predators is considered in the proposed model. Besides the logistic growth rate for the prey species, Sokol Howell functional response for predation is chosen for our model formulation. The behaviour of the model system thoroughly analyses near the biologically significant equilibria. The linear stability analysis of the equilibria is carried out in order to examine the response of the system. The present model system experiences Hopf bifurcation depending on the choice of suitable model parameters. Extensive numerical simulation reveals the validity of the proposed model.

Abstract:

 This research aims to compare Bayesian Method and Full Maximum Likelihood to estimate hierarchical Poisson regression model.

The comparison was done by  simulation  using different sample sizes (n = 30, 60, 120) and different Frequencies (r = 1000, 5000) for the experiments as was the adoption of the  Mean Square Error to compare the preference estimation methods and then choose the best way to appreciate model and concluded that hierarchical Poisson regression model that has been appreciated Full Maximum Likelihood Full Maximum Likelihood  with sample size  (n = 30) is the best to represent the maternal mortality data after it has been reliance value param

Currently and under the COVID-19 which is considered as a kind of disaster or even any other natural or manmade disasters, this study was confirmed to be important especially when the society is proceeding to recover and reduce the risks of as possible as injuries. These disasters are leading somehow to paralyze the activities of society as what happened in the period of COVID-19, therefore, more efforts were to be focused for the management of disasters in different ways to reduce their risks such as working from distance or planning solutions digitally and send them to the source of control and hence how most countries overcame this stage of disaster (COVID-19) and collapse. Artificial intelligence should be used when there is no practica

The Messengers and the Imam of the God-fearing, Muhammad is God, his family, and all of his companions. As for what comes after... Fainting is one of the involuntary symptoms and states that occur to a person when carrying out his life’s tasks suddenly due to his loss of sense and movement, so he loses consciousness for a period of time that is short or may be long, and the person is held accountable and responsible for every moment of his life. He is required to perform duties specified by Sharia law, such as prayer, fasting, and Hajj...and fainting prevents him from performing these actions. We must consider the opinions of jurists and know the legal implications resulting from it. It was said that a person has a capacity that enable

Thin films of pure polycarbonate (PC) with anthracene doping PC films for different doping ratios (10, 20, 30, 40, 50 and 60 ml) were prepared by using a casting method. The influence of anthracene doping ratio on photo-fries rearrangement of polycarbonate was systematic investigated. Furthermore, pure PC and anthracene doping PC films were irradiated via UV light at a wavelength (254 nm) for different periods (5, 240, 288, and 360 hrs). The photo-fries rearrangement occurring in pure PC and anthracene doping PC films were monitored using UV and FTIR spectroscopies. The photo-fries rearrangement leads to scission the carbonate linkage and formation phenylsalicylate and dihydroxybenzophenes. The result of the UV spectrum confirms disappea

The researcher tackles the most outstanding conditions of experimentation, the importance of the study lies in being helpful to the workers in the field of theatre in general and directors in particular which the conditions of experimentation that should be taken.The study aims at knowing the experimental basis which the director (Sami Abdulhamid) followed in the realization of this.The researcher tackles in the First inquiry the concept of experimentation and the second tackles the conditions of experimentation.In the methodology of study the researcher analyzed the show of the "Othello in the Kitchen" and comes up to the following: 1. the dhows has cone with the nature of the previous shows experienced the methods that were not familia