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Using Multivariate GARCH Models CCC (Constant Conditional Correlation) and DCC(Dynamic Conditional Correlation) To Forecast Iraqi Dinar Exchange Rate in Dollar
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Abstract

Multivariate GARCH Models take several forms , the most important DCC dynamic conditional correlation, and CCC constant conditional correlation , The Purpose of this research is the Comparison for both Models.Using three  financial time series which is a series of daily Iraqi dinar exchange rate indollar, Global daily Oil price in dollar and Global daily gold price in dollarfor the period from 01/01/2014 till 01/01/2016, Where it has been transferred to the three time series returns to get the Stationarity, some tests were conducted including Ljung-Box , JarqueBera  , Multivariate ARCH to Returns Series and Residuals Series for both models In Comparison with the estimation and forecasting based on criteria ,MAE,MSE , mean absolute error and mean Square error ,  respectively  Compared to the Suitability of these two models of the nature of the data and the ability to Capture the volatility. We concluded that CCC is better than DCC

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2023
Journal Name
Indonesian Journal Of Electrical Engineering And Computer Science
Intelligence framework dust forecasting using regression algorithms models
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<span>Dust is a common cause of health risks and also a cause of climate change, one of the most threatening problems to humans. In the recent decade, climate change in Iraq, typified by increased droughts and deserts, has generated numerous environmental issues. This study forecasts dust in five central Iraqi districts using machine learning and five regression algorithm supervised learning system framework. It was assessed using an Iraqi meteorological organization and seismology (IMOS) dataset. Simulation results show that the gradient boosting regressor (GBR) has a mean square error of 8.345 and a total accuracy ratio of 91.65%. Moreover, the results show that the decision tree (DT), where the mean square error is 8.965, c

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 11 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Analysing Iraqi Railways Network by Applying Specific Criteria Using the GIS Techniques
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The railways network is one of the huge infrastructure projects. Therefore, dealing with these projects such as analyzing and developing should be done using appropriate tools, i.e. GIS tools. Because, traditional methods will consume resources, time, money and the results maybe not accurate. In this research, the train stations in all of Iraq’s provinces were studied and analyzed using network analysis, which is one of the most powerful techniques within GIS. A free trial copy of ArcGIS®10.2 software was used in this research in order to achieve the aim of this study. The analysis of current train stations has been done depending on the road network, because people used roads to reach those train stations. The data layers for this st

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 02 2017
Journal Name
Al-academy
Implementation of Sound Effects in the Iraqi Children’s Theatre
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Sound effects are considered to be a key element in children’s theatre, for it relays the context and amplifies its understandability, acceptability and its impact on the audience, so it’s a fundamental method in portraying the characters within the idea or the story, to produce the title and content with completeness in its relations that are associated with the rest of the fundamental elements represented in lighting, costumes, dialogue, decoration, etc. And this research included a set of subjects that are related to implementing the sound effects used in the Iraqi children’s theatre plays, chapter one included the problem and the need for studying this subject, as well as its importance and aim, and specifying the basic phrases

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 05 2016
Journal Name
Al-academy
The formal suspension of Hruvijat in contemporary Iraqi porcelain
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The research current (Comment formal for Hruvijat in contemporary Iraqi porcelain). In an attempt to study the Arab character that inspired the Iraqi artist of all intellectual its terms of reference and stylistic by taking advantage of the cultural heritage and the rebuilding of the character to create a system ride of relationships that focus on structural body ceramic body ideas and multiple implications are invested in the structural fabric of the products of contemporary ceramic .vdila for ways to achieve and processing techniques and transmission of functional specificity (blogging) and cosmetic particularly to semantics derive from the content and expresses itself templates ceramic raw materials and by building works of art in pla

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 31 2015
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Characterization of Biochar Produced from IRAQI Palm Fronds by Thermal Pyrolysis
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The present paper focuses in a particular on the study of the biochar production conditions by the thermal pyrolysis of biomass from local Iraqi palm fronds, in the absence of oxygen. The biochar product can be used as soil improvers. The effect of temperature on the extent of the thermal pyrolysis process was studied in the range from 523 to 773K with a residence time of 15 minutes and nitrogen gas flow rate of 0.1 l/min. The produced biochar was characterized as will as biomass and degradation products. The results showed that the rate of biochar production decreases with the increasing in temperature, also it was noted that the normalized biochar surface area and pore size increases with the increasin

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 20 2023
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Building an Analytical Method to Study Cantilever Beam Dynamic Response
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Cantilever beams are used in many crucial applications in machinery and construction. For example, the airplane wing, the microscopic probe for atomic force measurement, the tower crane overhang and twin overhang folding bridge are typical examples of cantilever beams. The current research aims to develop an analytical solution for the free vibration problem of cantilever beams. The dynamic response of AISI 304 beam represented by the natural frequencies was determined under different working surrounding temperatures ((-100 ℃ to 400 ℃)). A Matlab code was developed to achieve the analytical solution results, considering the effect of some beam geometrical dimensions. The developed analytical solution has been verified successful

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 10 2022
Journal Name
Pakistan Journal Of Statistics And Operation Research
Continuous wavelet estimation for multivariate fractional Brownian motion
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 In this paper, we propose a method using continuous wavelets to study the multivariate fractional Brownian motion through the deviations of the transformed random process to find an efficient estimate of Hurst exponent using eigenvalue regression of the covariance matrix. The results of simulations experiments shown that the performance of the proposed estimator was efficient in bias but the variance get increase as signal change from short to long memory the MASE increase relatively. The estimation process was made by calculating the eigenvalues for the variance-covariance matrix of Meyer’s continuous wavelet details coefficients.

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 10 2022
Journal Name
Pakistan Journal Of Statistics And Operation Research
Continuous wavelet estimation for multivariate fractional Brownian motion
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 In this paper, we propose a method using continuous wavelets to study the multivariate fractional Brownian motion through the deviations of the transformed random process to find an efficient estimate of Hurst exponent using eigenvalue regression of the covariance matrix. The results of simulations experiments shown that the performance of the proposed estimator was efficient in bias but the variance get increase as signal change from short to long memory the MASE increase relatively. The estimation process was made by calculating the eigenvalues for the variance-covariance matrix of Meyer’s continuous wavelet details coefficients.

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Causal Relationship between Stock Market Indices Volatility and Oil Prices Volatility: Empirical Evidence from Iraqi Stock Exchange
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The study investigates the relationship between the volatility of the Iraqi Stock Exchange Index (ISX), and the volatility of global oil prices benchmarks, Brent and West Intermediate Texas (WTI), in additional to the Iraqi Oil, Basra Crude Light (BSL) which represents the most exported Iraqi oil and the major influential factor on the Iraqi governmental revenues. Using monthly data covering the period: 1/2005-12/1205, econometrical and technical tools represented by Co-incretion, Vector Error Correction Model – VECM, Granger Causality, and Bollinger band were employed in order to explore the relationship between the variables.

The econometric analysis revealed the impact of the oil prices volatility on

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2018
Journal Name
International Journal Of Science And Research (ij
Mathematical Models for Predicting of Organic and Inorganic Pollutants in Diyala River Using AnalysisNeural Network
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Diyala river is the most important tributaries in Iraq, this river suffering from pollution, therefore, this research aimed to predict organic pollutants that represented by biological oxygen demand BOD, and inorganic pollutants that represented by total dissolved solids TDS for Diyala river in Iraq, the data used in this research were collected for the period from 2011-2016 for the last station in the river known as D17, before the river meeting Tigris river in Baghdad city. Analysis Neural Network ANN was used in order to find the mathematical models, the parameters used to predict BOD were seven parameters EC, Alk, Cl, K, TH, NO3, DO, after removing the less importance parameters. While the parameters that used to predict TDS were fourte

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