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Using Multivariate GARCH Models CCC (Constant Conditional Correlation) and DCC(Dynamic Conditional Correlation) To Forecast Iraqi Dinar Exchange Rate in Dollar

Abstract

Multivariate GARCH Models take several forms , the most important DCC dynamic conditional correlation, and CCC constant conditional correlation , The Purpose of this research is the Comparison for both Models.Using three  financial time series which is a series of daily Iraqi dinar exchange rate indollar, Global daily Oil price in dollar and Global daily gold price in dollarfor the period from 01/01/2014 till 01/01/2016, Where it has been transferred to the three time series returns to get the Stationarity, some tests were conducted including Ljung-Box , JarqueBera  , Multivariate ARCH to Returns Series and Residuals Series for both models In Comparison with the estimation and forecasting based on criteria ,MAE,MSE , mean absolute error and mean Square error ,  respectively  Compared to the Suitability of these two models of the nature of the data and the ability to Capture the volatility. We concluded that CCC is better than DCC

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 04 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The effect of changing the exchange rate in bank loans : Applied research on a sample of Iraqi commercial banks

Abstract

          The aim of the research is to measure the effect of changing the exchange rate on bank loans, and in order to achieve this goal, the (official exchange rate) was chosen as an independent variable and its effect was studied on the dependent variable, which is bank credit. Commercial Gulf, Baghdad, A Shore International for Investment (and the financial indicators (growth rate of loans) and the statistical program (Eviews 12) were used to measure the impact of the exchange rate change on the bank credit of banks, the research sample for the period 2012-2022, and the research reached a group Among the conclusions, the most important of which is that the

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of the statistical methods used to Forecast the size of the Iraqi GDP for the two sectors (public and private) for the period (2025-2016)

Gross domestic product (GDP) is an important measure of the size of the economy's production. Economists use this term to determine the extent of decline and growth in the economies of countries. It is also used to determine the order of countries and compare them to each other. The research aims at describing and analyzing the GDP during the period from 1980 to 2015 and for the public and private sectors and then forecasting GDP in subsequent years until 2025. To achieve this goal, two methods were used: linear and nonlinear regression. The second method in the time series analysis of the Box-Jenkins models and the using of statistical package (Minitab17), (GRETLW32)) to extract the results, and then comparing the two methods, T

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using game theory models to determine the profit maximization policies for PepsiCo and Coca Cola in Baghdad

(Use of models of game theory in determining the policies to maximize profits for the Pepsi Cola and Coca-Cola in the province of Baghdad)

Due to the importance of the theory of games especially theories of oligopoly in the study of the reality of competition among companies or governments and others the researcher linked theories of oligopoly to Econometrics to include all the policies used by companies after these theories were based on price and quantity only the researcher applied these theories to data taken from Pepsi Cola and Coca-Cola In Baghdad Steps of the solution where stated for the models proposed and solutions where found to be balance points is for the two companies according to the princi

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Effectiveness of Indicators of Financial Discipline in Strengthening the Exchange Rate, with a Special Reference to Iraq

Controlling public expenditures is one of the main objectives of the public budget. The public budget often suffers from a deficit, whether in developed or developing countries, because expenditures are usually greater than the revenues generated. This requires the existence of financial rules that are adhered to by the government, which in turn leads to discipline. Fiscal policy leads to a reduction in the obligations incumbent on the government.  Adhering to the financial rules would correct the course of fiscal policy in Iraq, with the need to direct oil revenues in the years of financial abundance when global oil prices rise to sovereign funds similar to other rentier countries, which contributes to maintaining the stabi

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 15 2021
Journal Name
Al-academy
Consistency and Consistency in Contemporary Iraqi Painting - Selected Models-: حسين شاكر قاسم العيداني

  The tagged research is concerned with observation and investigating the concepts of consistency and harmony in contemporary Iraqi painting (selected models) in order to reveal the mechanisms and rules of these two concepts in the artistic field and their mechanisms of operation. How reflected tools Consistency and harmony in contemporary Iraqi painting? What is consistency and what are its mechanisms and principles? Is consistency a unit product quality? Are there similarities between consistency and harmony? What is harmony and its principles and rules? As for the second chapter, it included two topics that dealt with the first topic - consistency and harmony between concept and significance, while the second topic meant - histor

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using a hybrid SARIMA-NARNN Model to Forecast the Numbers of Infected with (COVID-19) in Iraq

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Use of Replacement Models On Determine the Optimal Time to Replacement

Abstract:-

            The approach maintenance and replacement one of techniques of operations research whom cares of the failure experienced by a lot of production lines which consist of a set of machines and equipment, which in turn exposed to the failure or work stoppages over the lifetime, which requires reducing the working time of these machines or equipment below what can or conuct  maintenance process once in a while or a replacement for one part of the machine or replace one of the machines in production lines. In this research is the study of the failure s that occur in some parts of one of the machines for the General Company for Vege

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 15 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Models for long range forecast to the dust storms

In this research ,we will study the phenomenon of dust storms for all types
(Suspended dust , rising dust , dust storm) , and its relationship with some climate
variables (Temperature , rainfall ,wind speed , Relative humidity ) through
regression models to three different locations ( Kirkuk , Rutba , Diwaniya ) almost
covering Iraq area for the period (1981 – 2012) . Time series has been addressing the
phenomenon of storms and climate variables for the time period under study to
attain the best models for long range forcast to the dust storms.

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 15 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Moral Value in Iraqi Society between Change and Constant

The problem of constant and change values is one of the important problems that the philosophy thought had faced as the religious and social studies had taken it as it considers as one of the most dangerous which touch the basic . the research deals with the effect of change value of new Iraqi situation to be as an attempt , as participation or an excitement that can be occupied a space through the area of questions on the fix and change of moral values shed light on the economical ,social and political events that the Iraqi society passes through them .it is part of interests that becomes importance to everyone through the light of moral change Which is arbitrary to the life of the individual .It is not possible to rebuild the society o

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Using microalga Coelastrella sp. to remove some nutrients from wastewater invitro

Microalgae have been increasingly used for wastewater treatment due to their capacity to assimilate nutrients. Samples of wastewater were taken from the Erbil wastewater channel near Dhahibha village in northern Iraq. The microalga Coelastrella sp. was used in three doses (0.2, 1, and 2g. l-1) in this experiment for 21 days, samples were periodically (every 3 days) analyzed for physicochemical parameters such as pH, EC, Phosphate, Nitrate, and BOD5, in addition to, Chlorophyll a concentration. Results showed that the highest dose 2g.l-1 was the most effective dose for removing nutrients, confirmed by significant differences (p≤0.05) between all doses. The highest removal percentage was

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