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jeasiq-567
التنبؤ بقيم السلاسل الزمنية بأستعمال أنموذج (ARMAX) مع تطبيق عملي
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Abstract :

          Researchers have great interest in studying the black box models this thesis has been focused in the study one of the black box models , a ARMAX model which is one of the important models and can be accessed through a number of special cases which models (AR , MA , ARMA, ARX) , which combines method of the time series that depend on historical data and and regression method as explanatory variables addition to that past errors , ARMAX model importance has appeared in many areas of application that direct contact with our daily lives , it consists of constructing ARMAX model several traditional stages of the process , a identification As it was used Final prediction error (FPE) , Akaiki Information Criterion (AIC) and estimate As it was used Recursive least square with Forgetting Factor (RLS – F) and  Recursive pseudolinear regression method (RPLR) which come in the first place and  (RLS – F) which come in the second place  and finally come prediction for (30) value of the daily maximum temperature depending on the daily wind speed .  

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 01 2008
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
دور تطبيق نموذج Senge في التَعَلّم التنظيمي لتحقيق الإبداع في منظمات الأعمال "مدخل إلى دراسة تفكير النظم"
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The purpose of this research is to suggest a model which may be used by law enforcement to broaden individual and organizational creativity while providing a more inclusive, holistic view of management within our internal and external organizational structures. This project introduces alternatives to traditional management, leadership styles and problem solving strategies. Law enforcement organizations in the 21st century will face many challenges. Much like community policing impacted the nation in the mid 1980's through the 1990's, the systems thinking approach offers a philosophy for the new millennium.

Most organizations will face many challenges in the next decade of the twentieth first century. Just

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 15 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Indian Ghost in Lynn Riggs' Play The Cherokee Night
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This play is written in 1932 by Lynn Riggs who is half Cherokee. The play is set in Claremore Mound, Oklahoma almost a century after the Trail of Tears. Riggs presents mixed- blood, young Cherokees to portray a post-colonial state of spiritual loss and disruption of traditional community ties. The new generation lives in darkness, and the title of the play tells about the dramatist's view that night comes to his Cherokee Nation. The Indian ghost is one of the play’s characters.  It is an Indian ghost of a warrior. It comes to remind Cherokees of their heritage and traditions. The ghost sees the new generation as nothing as ghosts because they are neither good for themselves nor for their nation. This paper is important as it discu

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2007
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
الاهمية الاقتصادية للموانىء الحرة مع الاشارة الى المنطقة الاقتصادية الحرة المقترحة في ميناء الفاو
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الاهمية الاقتصادية للموانىء الحرة مع الاشارة الى المنطقة الاقتصادية الحرة المقترحة في ميناء الفاو

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
STUDY OF YIELD AND ITS COMPONENTS OF INTRODUCED VARIETIES OF MAIZE UNDER DIFFERENT PLANTING DENSITIES: STUDY OF YIELD AND ITS COMPONENTS OF INTRODUCED VARIETIES OF MAIZE UNDER DIFFERENT PLANTING DENSITIES
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In order to evaluate the performance of introduced varieties of maize and test them under different levels of plant density, and to determine which of the introduced varieties give a high yield and at what plant density, a field experiment was carried out at Station A in the Department of Field Crops- College of Agricultural Engineering Sciences - University of Baghdad- Jadiriyah, for the fall season 2021, the RCBD design was used with four replications, in a split plot arrangement, the three plant densities (50.000, 70.000, and 90.000 Plant s ha-1) were the main plates, while the varieties represented the secondary factor, which is six varieties of maize, class 2 = 5783 DKC, Class 3 = 6315 DKC, Class 4= 6590 DKC, whic

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Publication Date
Sun Aug 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
مقترح اسلوب IRWs الحصين لتقدير أنموذج الانحدار المقسم لحركة حمولة قاع نهر دجلة ونقطة التغيير لكمية تصريف المياه عند مدينة بغداد
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              يتكون الانحدار المقسم من عدة أقسام تفصل بينها نقاط انتماء مختلفة، فتظهر حالة عدم التجانس الناشئة من عملية فصل الأقسام ضمن عينة البحث. ويهتم هذا البحث في تقدير موقع نقطة التغيير بين الأقسام وتقدير معلمات الأنموذج، واقتراح طريقة تقدير حصينة ومقارنتها مع بعض الطرائق المستعملة في الانحدار الخطي المقسم. وقد تم استعمال أحد الطرائق التقليدية (طريقة Muggeo) لإيجاد مقدرات الإمكان الأعظم بالأسلوب الت

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Publication Date
Mon May 21 2007
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Using the Input - Output Model in building the economic plan using the computer
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The origin of this technique lies in the analysis of François Kenai (1694-1774), the leader of the School of Naturalists, presented in Tableau Economique. This method was developed by Karl Marx in his analysis of the Departmental Relationships and the nature of these relations in the models of " "He said. The current picture of this type of economic analysis is credited to the Russian economist Vasily Leontif. This analytical model is commonly used in developing economic plans in developing countries (p. 1, p. 86). There are several types of input and output models, such as static model, mobile model, regional models, and so on. However, this research will be confined to the open-ended model, which found areas in practical application.

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 22 2018
Journal Name
Baghdad University
صيغ الافعال في النصوص المسماريةالمنشورة وغير المنشورةمن مدينة سبار(2004-1595ق.م) دراسة مقارنة مع اللغة العربية
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The study of cuneiform texts is very important for finding out the ancient history of Iraq and its civilization, as well as the close relation among languages, especially Semitic, the mother language to which both Akkadian and Arabic belong, the matter that clarifies the linkage among them. The Akkadian language is among these Jazri (a Semitic branch) languages, besides Arabic. It is the most ancient one. It consisted of a lot of genuine linguistic rules derived from the mother Jazri language. Contrastive Akkadian studies approved these linguistic rules. Due to the close linkage that relates Akkadian language to its sister Arabic , as they both relate to the same family, the researcher an verbs and compared them with studied aspects and moo

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 01 2007
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
ادارة الطلب على المياه مدخل اساسي للتنمية المستدامة في الوطن العربي مع أشارة خاصة الى العراق
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المقدمة:

مع مطلع القرن الحادي والعشرين فأن الصراع على امدادات المياه الحيوية هو خطر قائم على الدوام في جميع مناطق العالم حيث يتجاوز الطلب على الماء بشكل كبير العرض القائم ولكون اغلب المصادر الرئيسة للمياه وخاصة في المنطقة العربية يشترك فيها بلدان أو أكثر ولان هذه الدول نادرا ما توافق على الاجراءات التفاوضية الخاصة بأقتسام الامداد المتاح من المياه مما يعني زيادة الخلافات على الوصول الى الم

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
تأثير المقدرات الديناميكية التسويقية في التوجه الاستراتيجي (دراسة استطلاعية لعدد من المصارف الاهلية/ بغداد)
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The intensification of competition in the business environment has forced research organizations to develop marketing dynamics that help them to sense and conceptualize market opportunities and uncertainties. Then, the marketing capabilities of the organization are restructured and developed according to mechanisms such as speed, timing, and frequency of application. The problem of most organizations is their lack of interest in capabilities  Marketing dynamics, which represent the most important factor in enhancing their marketing performance, so the objective of the research is to identify the most important capabilities that banks should pay attention to and evaluate their role in determining the strategic direction of th

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 01 2010
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
دراسة المتغيرات المؤثرة على زيادة أعداد الحيوانات المنوية النشطة باستخدام نموذج توبت (Tobit Model
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The no parity problem causes determining is the most interesting case by doctors and researchers in this filed, because it helps them to pre-discovering of it, from this point the important of this paper is came, which tries to determine the priority causes and its fluency, thus it helps doctors and researchers to determine the problem and it’s fluency of increase or decrease the active sperm which fluencies of peregrinating. We use the censored regression (Tobit) model to analyze the data that contains 150 observations may by useful to whom it concern.         

 

 

 

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