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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 26 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Aridland Agriculture
Modern GPS diagnostic technique to determine and map soil hardpan for enhancing agricultural operation management
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Among the undesirable effects of soil compaction is a measurable reduction in plant growth and crop yield. The prevailing belief is that compacted tillage pans are caused by repetitive farming practices, heavy tractors, tillage tools, and field traffic. This experiment was conducted to determine and map the hardpan layers across an agricultural field through advanced technologies of precision agriculture. These valuable techniques such as data logger, yield map, and data analysis of performance indicators were linked with accurate global positioning systems (GPS) datasets. These important technologies provided the farmers and helped them to identify and manage areas of the fields with higher compacted layers. Three ground speeds 4.3

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Estimate the Partial Linear Model Using Wavelet and Kernel Smoothers
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This article aims to estimate the partially linear model by using two methods, which are the Wavelet and Kernel Smoothers. Simulation experiments are used to study the small sample behavior depending on different functions, sample sizes, and variances. Results explained that the wavelet smoother is the best depending on the mean average squares error criterion for all cases that used.

 

 

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2009
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Determination of Similarity and Variance in Energy and Depositional Environment, the Difference in Diagenesis and the Variance in the Petrophysical Properties of Reservoir Rocks in Zubair Formation , South Iraq
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Records of two regionalized variables were processed for each of porosity and permeability of reservoir rocks in Zubair Formation (Zb-109) south Iraq as an indication of the most important reservoir property which is the homogeneity , considering their important results in criterion most needed for primary and enhanced oil reservoir .Z and F tests that were calculated for the two above mentioned properties of pair units of Zubair Formation have shown the difference in depositional energy and different diagenesis between units IL and AB , DJ and AB , and the similarity in grains size , sorting degree , depositional environment and pressure gradients between IL and AB units , LS and IL units ; also the difference in the properties above betw

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 27 2021
Journal Name
Human Interaction, Emerging Technologies And Future Systems V: Proceedings Of The 5th International Virtual Conference On Human Interaction And Emerging Technologies, Ihiet 2021, August 27-29, 2021 And The 6th Ihiet: Future Systems (ihiet-fs 2021), October 28-30, 2021, France
Electricity Consumption Forecasting in Iraq with Artificial Neural Network
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Scopus
Publication Date
Thu Dec 31 2015
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Experimental Study on the Effect of Insertion of Copper Lessing Rings in Phase Change Material (PCM) on the Performance of Thermal Energy Storage Unit
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Abstract

One of the most suitable materials to be used in latent heat thermal energy storage system (LHTES) are Phase change materials, but a problem of slow melting and solidification processes made many researchers focusing on how to improve their thermal properties. This experimental work concerned with the enhancing of thermal conductivity of phase change material. The enhancing method was by the addition of copper Lessing rings in phase change material (paraffin wax). The effect of diameter for the used rings was studied by using two different diameters (0.5 cm and 1cm). Also, three volumetric percentages of rings addition (3%, 6% and 10%) were tested for each diameter. The discharging process was done with

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Experimental Evaluation of the Strut-and-Tie Model Applied to Deep Beam with Near-Load Openings
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It is commonly known that Euler-Bernoulli’s thin beam theorem is not applicable whenever a nonlinear distribution of strain/stress occurs, such as in deep beams, or the stress distribution is discontinuous. In order to design the members experiencing such distorted stress regions, the Strut-and-Tie Model (STM) could be utilized. In this paper, experimental investigation of STM technique for three identical small-scale deep beams was conducted. The beams were simply supported and loaded statically with a concentrated load at the mid span of the beams. These deep beams had two symmetrical openings near the application point of loading. Both the deep beam, where the stress distribution cannot be assumed linear, and the ex

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Relationship between Fiscal Policy and Human Development Analytical Studay Of Iraq Using The (ARDL)Model
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Fiscal policy is one of the important economic tools that affect economic development in general and human development in particular through its tools (public revenues, public expenditures, and the general budget).

It was hoped that the effects of fiscal policy during the study period (2004-2007) will positively reflect on human development indicators (health, education, income) by raising these indicators on the ground. After 2003, public revenues in Iraq increased due to increased revenues. However, despite this increase in public budgets, the actual impact on human development and its indicators was not equivalent to this increase in financial revenues. QR The value of the general budget allocations ha

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 30 2006
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The Messenger’s approach to preaching (the Meccan stage in light of the Qur’an and Sunnah)
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First: People’s need for advocacy:

Calling for a legal necessity for all people, regardless of their races, colours, tongues, and culture, to explain the truth, spread fear, bring benefits, ward off evil, regulate a person’s relationship with his Lord, and his relationship with creatures, so that he knows his money and what he owes.

All of creation is in dire need of the call to God’s religion with insight due to their inability to reach out to goodness, righteousness, guidance, and success on their own. Man is limited in thinking in this universe, limited in his resolve, unable to know what will improve his affairs in the two worlds. His need for religion is one of the necessities of his life, and one of the comple

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 01 2016
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Manufacturing the Functions and Responsibilities of the Press Photo: The Photo of the Child Elian as a Model
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The theory of the psychologist’s Piaget states that man passes through four stages; other says that mankind passes through five. At each stage, human learn new characteristics, values, skills, and cultures from different environment that differ from one society to another. Therefore, the cultures of societies vary according to the diversity of the environments. These environments also vary depending on the circumstances surrounding them, e.g., in war environment, the individual learns what he does not learn from living in safe environment. As the environment changes, the communicative message also changes. This message is subject to person, groups, organizations and parties and directed to a diverse audience in its orientations and bel

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 02 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Obstacles to women's access to the positions of leadership in the university from their point of view
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The problem of research is the need to find out the obstacles and difficulties facing women in accessing leadership positions at the University of Baghdad from their point of view. The importance of research comes from the importance of women in the university and their vital role in the development of society. The research objectives summarized the most important obstacles facing women Access to the leadership positions in the university and the relative weight of these obstacles as well as trying to identify differences in their view of these obstacles according to the variables of specialization (scientific, human) and the scientific title (Professor, Assistant Professor, Teacher, Assistant Lecturer). They were (144) university female

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