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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 18 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Interdisciplinary Mathematics
The dynamics of Coronavirus pandemic disease model in the existence of a curfew strategy
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Publication Date
Wed Oct 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Spatial Regression Model Estimation for the poverty Rates In the districts of Iraq in 2012
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Theresearch took the spatial autoregressive model: SAR and spatial error model: SEM in an attempt to provide a practical evident that proves the importance of spatial analysis, with a particular focus on the importance of using regression models spatial andthat includes all of them spatial dependence, which we can test its presence or not by using Moran test. While ignoring this dependency may lead to the loss of important information about the phenomenon under research is reflected in the end on the strength of the statistical estimation power, as these models are the link between the usual regression models with time-series models. Spatial analysis had

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Publication Date
Sat May 01 2021
Journal Name
Proceedings Of The Thermal And Fluids Engineering Summer Conference
HEAT TRANSFER ENHANCEMENT IN PCM THERMAL ENERGY STORAGE VIA THE TRIPLEX TUBE HEAT EXCHANGER
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Publication Date
Wed Jun 30 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A proposed model for disclosing the role of the collective intelligence system in improving joint auditing
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This research aims to present a proposed model for disclosure and documentation when performing the audit according to the joint audit method by using the questions and principles of the collective intelligence system, which leads to improving and enhancing the efficiency of the joint audit, and thus enhancing the confidence of the parties concerned in the outputs of the audit process. As the research problem can be formulated through the following question: “Does the proposed model for disclosure of the role of the collective intelligence system contribute to improving joint auditing?”   

The proposed model is designed for the disclosure of joint auditing and the role

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2009
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Determination of Similarity and Variance in Energy and Depositional Environment, the Difference in Diagenesis and the Variance in the Petrophysical Properties of Reservoir Rocks in Zubair Formation , South Iraq
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Records of two regionalized variables were processed for each of porosity and permeability of reservoir rocks in Zubair Formation (Zb-109) south Iraq as an indication of the most important reservoir property which is the homogeneity , considering their important results in criterion most needed for primary and enhanced oil reservoir .Z and F tests that were calculated for the two above mentioned properties of pair units of Zubair Formation have shown the difference in depositional energy and different diagenesis between units IL and AB , DJ and AB , and the similarity in grains size , sorting degree , depositional environment and pressure gradients between IL and AB units , LS and IL units ; also the difference in the properties above betw

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 26 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Aridland Agriculture
Modern GPS diagnostic technique to determine and map soil hardpan for enhancing agricultural operation management
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Among the undesirable effects of soil compaction is a measurable reduction in plant growth and crop yield. The prevailing belief is that compacted tillage pans are caused by repetitive farming practices, heavy tractors, tillage tools, and field traffic. This experiment was conducted to determine and map the hardpan layers across an agricultural field through advanced technologies of precision agriculture. These valuable techniques such as data logger, yield map, and data analysis of performance indicators were linked with accurate global positioning systems (GPS) datasets. These important technologies provided the farmers and helped them to identify and manage areas of the fields with higher compacted layers. Three ground speeds 4.3

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 31 2015
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Experimental Study on the Effect of Insertion of Copper Lessing Rings in Phase Change Material (PCM) on the Performance of Thermal Energy Storage Unit
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Abstract

One of the most suitable materials to be used in latent heat thermal energy storage system (LHTES) are Phase change materials, but a problem of slow melting and solidification processes made many researchers focusing on how to improve their thermal properties. This experimental work concerned with the enhancing of thermal conductivity of phase change material. The enhancing method was by the addition of copper Lessing rings in phase change material (paraffin wax). The effect of diameter for the used rings was studied by using two different diameters (0.5 cm and 1cm). Also, three volumetric percentages of rings addition (3%, 6% and 10%) were tested for each diameter. The discharging process was done with

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Xi'an University Of Architecture & Technology
The Effect of (Landa) Model on Acquiring Grammatical Concepts Upon His Request to the College of Administration and Economics University of Bagdad
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The current research aims to identify the impact of the (Landa) model on acquiring grammatical concepts among students of the College of Administration and Economics, University of Baghdad, and to achieve the research goal, the researcher has set the following hypotheses: There are no statistically significant differences at the level of significance (0.05) between the average degrees Students of the experimental group who studied the Arabic language according to the (Landa) model and the marks of the students of the control group who studied the same subject in the usual way in the post test, there are no statistically significant differences at the level of significance (0.05) in the average differences between the test scores before and

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Estimate the Partial Linear Model Using Wavelet and Kernel Smoothers
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This article aims to estimate the partially linear model by using two methods, which are the Wavelet and Kernel Smoothers. Simulation experiments are used to study the small sample behavior depending on different functions, sample sizes, and variances. Results explained that the wavelet smoother is the best depending on the mean average squares error criterion for all cases that used.

 

 

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 04 2011
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Prediction of the Electromagnetic Properties and the ?(E2/M1) of 110-116Cd-Isotopes in IBM Model
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The Nuclear structure of 110-116Cd isotopes was studied theoretically in the framework of the interacting boson model of IBM-l and IBM-2. The properties of the lowest mixed symmetry states such as the 1+, 2+ and 3+ levels produced by the IBM-2 model in the vibrational-limit U(5) of Cd - isotopes are studied in details. This analysis shows that the character of mixed symmetry of 2+ is shared between and states in 110-114Cd – isotopes, the large shar goes to s, while in isotope, the state is declared as a mixed symmetry state without sharing. This identification is confirmed by the percentage of F-spin contribution. The electromagnetic properties of E2 and Ml operators were investigated and the results were analyzed. Various

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