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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Sat Jul 31 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Surface Basins Evaluation of the Southern Desert, West Iraq
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 The results of the present study show that the highest elevation point is (912) meters (a.s.l.) inside Wadi Al-Khur basin while the lowest elevation point is (6) meters (a.s.l.) inside Wadi Abu-Talha basin. The biggest catchment area is represented by Wadi Al-Khur (48840 km²) whereas the smallest catchment area is Wadi Taqtaq (1748 km²). The stream direction of all streams trends from South-West towards North-East. The soil available water capacity (AWC) (Moisture Deficit) in the studied area was15 mm. The average annual rainfall was133.11 mm, the average annual temperature was 25.65 Co, the total depth amount of E Apanwas 3691.85 mm/year, the relative humidity was 40 %, the average annual sunshine is 7.9 hrs., and the

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The Mechanical Behavior Of Materials.
Calibration and analysis of the potable water network in the Al-Yarmouk region employing WaterGEMS and GIS
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Abstract<p>Water supply and distribution networks play an important role in our daily activities. They make a substantial contribution to public health by providing potable water for public consumption and non-potable applications such as firefighters and other purposes such as irrigation. This study used ArcMap 10.8 and WaterGEMS CONNECT Edition update 1 version to create a hydraulic network model to simulate the pipes’ network. Detailed network information, including pipe lengths, layouts, and diameters, was given by the Baghdad Water Department. The TUF-2000H Handheld digital ultrasonic flow meter has been used to measure the water flows in the network’s source nodes. In eight junctions, </p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Wed Mar 30 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Mean Latin Hypercube Runge-Kutta Method to Solve the Influenza Model
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     In this study, we propose a suitable solution for a non-linear system of ordinary differential equations (ODE) of the first order with the initial value problems (IVP) that contains multi variables and multi-parameters with missing real data. To solve the mentioned system, a new modified numerical simulation method is created for the first time which is called Mean Latin Hypercube Runge-Kutta (MLHRK). This method can be obtained by combining the Runge-Kutta (RK) method with the statistical simulation procedure which is the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method. The present work is applied to the influenza epidemic model in Australia in 1919  for a previous study. The comparison between the numerical and numerical simulation res

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 30 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The Best Efficient Solutions for Multi-Criteria Travelling Salesman Problem Using Local Search Methods
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     In this research, we propose to use two local search methods (LSM's); Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and the Bees Algorithm (BA) to solve Multi-Criteria Travelling Salesman Problem (MCTSP) to obtain the best efficient solutions. The generating process of the population of the proposed LSM's may be randomly obtained or by adding some initial solutions obtained from some efficient heuristic methods. The obtained solutions of the PSO and BA are compared with the solutions of the exact methods (complete enumeration and branch and bound methods) and some heuristic methods. The results proved the efficiency of PSO and BA methods for a large number of nodes ( ). The proposed LSM's give the best efficient solutions for the MCTSP for

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 21 2021
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences (pen)
Estimation of the reliability system in model of stress- strength according to distribution of inverse Rayleigh
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Publication Date
Sun Dec 15 2019
Journal Name
Al-academy
Directorial Vision and its Relation to Scenographic Proposal in the Iraqi Theater Show- The Play of Darkness -A Model: رامي سامح زكي
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The increase of the scenographic designer role on account of the character of the director in the Iraqi theater constituted a clear phenomenon that has been manifested in many shows, which necessitated a stance on the nature of this relation and delimiting the work space for each one of them inside the theater show. The research focuses on determining the work relation between the directorial vision and the scenographic proposal in the Iraq theater show. The research is divided into four chapters, the first one addressed the methodological framework, where the research problem was stated in the following question (has the scenographic designer been able through his scenographic proposal to remove the director from his position being the

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 31 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Determining the sources of growth of the cement industry in Iraq (analytical study for the period 1990-2014)
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The objective of this study is to determine the sources of growth of the cement industry in Iraq for the period 1990-2014 and to indicate the nature of the technological progress used in it. To achieve this objective we have built an econometric model, by adapting the production function constant elasticity for substitution, using multiple regression, and enforcement, SPSS program, and using the ordinary least squares method (OLS). The results showed that quantitative factors (labour and capital) are the main sources of growth the cement industry in Iraq, and the qualitative factors (technological progress) did not contribute effectively to achieve this growth. And that the production techniques adopted in the cement industry in

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 07 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Preparation of Optical Window in the Infrared Region (35) µm Using Al2O3 Material
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In this work optical window for infrared region was prepared by using Aluminum Oxide (Al2O3)material as antireflection coating on ZnSe substrate which covers the atmospheric window 3-5µm. the maximum transition was 97% at a wavelength 0f 4.4µm.

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Publication Date
Sat Nov 28 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Design of Anti-Reflection Coatings for Application in the Infrared Region (10.6 micron)
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In this research, anti-reflection coatings consisting of single and double layers were designed in the IR (8 – 14μm) region to reduce the unwanted reflections of germanium (Ge) substrate. The reflectance of Ge substrate was about 36% per surface. These values were reduced reasonably by using single and double layer anti-reflection. The used layers were promoted in their performance by changing their thickness and refractive indices. The results indicated that the suggested structures are very efficient in reducing the reflectance of the Ge substrates in the selected region. The performance of the double layer antireflection coatings of ZnSe, BaF2 and BiF3 on Ge substrates is presented.

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
COVID-19 Diagnosis System using SimpNet Deep Model
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After the outbreak of COVID-19, immediately it converted from epidemic to pandemic. Radiologic images of CT and X-ray have been widely used to detect COVID-19 disease through observing infrahilar opacity in the lungs. Deep learning has gained popularity in diagnosing many health diseases including COVID-19 and its rapid spreading necessitates the adoption of deep learning in identifying COVID-19 cases. In this study, a deep learning model, based on some principles has been proposed for automatic detection of COVID-19 from X-ray images. The SimpNet architecture has been adopted in our study and trained with X-ray images. The model was evaluated on both binary (COVID-19 and No-findings) classification and multi-class (COVID-19, No-findings

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