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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The strengthening of strategic intelligence through an applied effective reality survey of strategic information systems An applied research in mobile companies in the Kurdistan Region
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Abstract

Purpose: The research attempts to Stand on the reality of the effective application of of strategic information systems in telecommunications companies in the Kurdistan Region, and what is the amount of the impact of such systems on promoting of Strategic Intelligence.

Design/Methodology/Approach: The Applied method has been used, In order to achieve the objectives of the research has been the development of a questionnaire prepared for this purpose and then distributed to (11) Company of Iraqi communications operating in Kurdistan Region companies, it has been used questionnaire to collect data in order to develop

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 08 2002
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Laser
Study of Laser Propagation Parameters in the Underdense Plasma Region Using a Two Dimensional Simulation Code
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The propagation of laser beam in the underdense deuterium plasma has been studied via computer simulation using the fluid model. An appropriate computer code “HEATER” has been modified and is used for this purpose. The propagation is taken to be in a cylindrical symmetric medium. Different laser wavelengths (1 = 10.6 m, 2 = 1.06 m, and 3 = 0.53 m) with a Gaussian pulse type and 15 ns pulse widths have been considered. Absorption energy and laser flux have been calculated for different plasma and laser parameters. The absorbed laser energy showed maximum for  = 0.53 m. This high absorbitivity was inferred to the effect of the pondermotive force.

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 27 2019
Journal Name
Bulletin Of The Iraq Natural History Museum (p-issn: 1017-8678 , E-issn: 2311-9799)
A SURVEY OF WEEVILS (COLEOPTERA, CURCULIONOIDEA) FROM SOME LOCALITES OF KURDISTAN REGION- IRAQ, WITH NEW RECORDS TO THE ENTOMOFAUNA OF IRAQ
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This work is the first study of the Curculionoidea fauna from Kurdistan region of Iraq, based on the intensive survey in different localities of Kurdistan from March 2016 to November 2017. In total, 41 species belonging to 28 genera, 21 tribes and 3 families were collected and identified, including 25 species newly recorded for the Iraqi fauna.

 

General distribution, collecting localities and methods, with plant association data for each species are given.

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
The The Use of Copper and Aluminum Electrodes for Energy Production in a Microbial Fuel Cell
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Microbial fuel cell is a device that uses the microorganism metabolism for the production of electricity under specific operating conditions. Double chamber microbial fuel cell was tested for the use of two cheap electrode materials copper and aluminum for the production of electricity under different operating conditions. The investigated conditions were concentration of microorganism (yeast) (0.5- 2 g/l), solutions temperature (33-45 oC) and concentration of glucose as a substrate (1.5- 6 g/l). The results demonstrated that copper electrode exhibit good performance while the performance of aluminum is poor. The electricity is generated with and without the addition of substrate. Addition of glucose substrate

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A Comparative Study for Estimate Fractional Parameter of ARFIMA Model
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      Long memory analysis is one of the most active areas in econometrics and time series where various methods have been introduced to identify and estimate the long memory parameter in partially integrated time series. One of the most common models used to represent time series that have a long memory is the ARFIMA (Auto Regressive Fractional Integration Moving Average Model) which diffs are a fractional number called the fractional parameter. To analyze and determine the ARFIMA model, the fractal parameter must be estimated. There are many methods for fractional parameter estimation. In this research, the estimation methods were divided into indirect methods, where the Hurst parameter is estimated fir

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 02 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Transport Assessment Using Bayesian Method to Determine Ride-Hailing in Kula Lumpur: A Case Study
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This research was designed to investigate the factors affecting the frequency of use of ride-hailing in a fast-growing metropolitan region in Southeast Asia, Kuala Lumpur. An intercept survey was used to conduct this study in three potential locations that were acknowledged by one of the most famous ride-hailing companies in Kuala Lumpur. This study used non-parametric and machine learning techniques to analyze the data, including the Pearson chi-square test and Bayesian Network. From 38 statements (input variables), the Pearson chi-square test identified 14 variables as the most important. These variables were used as predictors in developing a BN model that predicts the probability of weekly usage frequency of ride-hai

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 15 2022
Journal Name
Al-academy
The functional diversity of the directorial vision in the political theater cinema as a model
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It is very necessary for the political theater to be within the space of every theatrical performance, so that the theater carries the diverse and enlightened values and cultures of this world. political theatre. In the first chapter, the researcher dealt with (the methodological framework), which includes the research problem identified by the researcher with the following question (the functional diversity of the directorial vision in the political theater)
Importance, purpose, limits and seal by defining terminology.
In the second chapter, the researcher dealt with the theoretical framework on two topics, the first (transformations of directorial vision in theatrical performance) and the second topic (aesthetic experiences i

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Scientific Review Engineering And Environmental Studies (srees)
Testing the performance of a solar energy cooling system in Baghdad city
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Renewable energy resources have become a promissory alternative to overcome the problems related to atmospheric pollution and limited sources of fossil fuel energy. The technologies in the field of renewable energy are used also to improve the ventilation and cooling in buildings by using the solar chimney and heat exchanger. This study addresses the design, construction and testing of a cooling system by using the above two techniques. The aim was to study the effects of weather conditions on the efficiency of this system which was installed in Baghdad for April and May 2020. The common weather in these months is hot in Baghdad. The test room of the design which has a size of 1 m3 was situated to face the geographical south. The te

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
Ieee Access
Implementation of Univariate Paradigm for Streamflow Simulation Using Hybrid Data-Driven Model: Case Study in Tropical Region
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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of the method of partial least squares and the algorithm of singular values decomposion to estimate the parameters of the logistic regression model in the case of the problem of linear multiplicity by using the simulation
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The logistic regression model is an important statistical model showing the relationship between the binary variable and the explanatory variables.                                                        The large number of explanations that are usually used to illustrate the response led to the emergence of the problem of linear multiplicity between the explanatory variables that make estimating the parameters of the model not accurate.    

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