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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Request Construction in the Diwan of (Al-Shamakh bin Dirar Al-Dhubyani) A Rhetorical Study
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This study examined the imperative construction: the command, the interrogative, the prohibition, the call, and the wish. In the Diwan of Al-Shamakh bin Dirar; where the poetic verses were monitored in each of the topics of the student's creation, and the rhetorical meanings that he came out with. What is new in this study is that it is the first to study the demanded composition in the poetry of a glorious poet, Al-Shammakh bin Dirar Al-Dhubyani. As his poetry did not receive such a study, it sought to employ what was written by rhetoric scholars, in an attempt to explore the demanded composition in the poetry of Al-Shamakh. The study adopted the descriptive analytical approach, which is based on counting the number of times the poet us

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 14 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effectiveness of Cognitive-Behavioral Guidance Program in Reducing the Level of Addiction on Social Media in a Sample of High School Students in Karak Schools
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Abstract

The current research aims to develop a guidance program suitable for high school students and apply it to them in order to ensure the reduction of addiction to the use of different means of communication. The researchers used the scale of addiction to the means of communication (SAS) to measure the level of addiction as well as to identify the impact of the proposed guidance program in reducing the degree of addiction to communication. It was applied to a sample of (20) female students divided equally into two groups: an experimental group of (10) female students and a control group of (10) female students from the secondary level in a school under the department of education in the education of the alma

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Effect of Green Training and Development on Sustainable Performance: An Analytical Research in the Ministry of Environment
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The current study aims to test the impact of green training and development on sustainable performance and explore its effects within and outside the Iraqi Ministry of Environment. The main research problem revolves around the question of the extent of implementing green training and development and sustainable performance in the ministry (What is the nature of the relationship between green training and development and sustainable performance in the ministry?). To clarify the relationship between the research variables, two main hypotheses were formulated along with sub-hypotheses. The study also aims to assess the level of the ministry's interest in the research variables and provide key recommendations to enhance sustainable performan

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Evaluating The Performance of Public Companies in The Light of Financial Indicators Case study of the General Company for Drugs and Medical Supplies/ Samarra – Iraq For the period (2014-2019)
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The research aimed to evaluate the financial performance of the Public Company for the manufacture of medicines and medical supplies / Samarra - Iraq to know the strengths and weaknesses that affect its performance, as well as to compare its performance in the years between (2017-2019), which are characterized by security stability with its performance in previous years (2014 -2016) which is characterized by security instability, to assess the extent of its ability to achieve growth in performance, by answering the main question, what is the evaluation of the performance of the Public Company for the manufacture of medicines and medical supplies / Samarra - Iraq in the light of financial indicators?

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 02 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effectiveness of Using Rational Judgment Strategy in Teaching Science on the Developing of Scientific Thinking at the Male Students of Intermediate Second Grade
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The study aimed to explore the effectiveness of using rational judgment strategy in teaching science to develop scientific thinking for second-grade students. The researcher utilized the quasi-experimental approach based on (the pre/post designing) of two groups: experimental and control. As for tools: a test of scientific thinking prepared by the researcher that proved its verification of their validity and reliability. The test applied on a random sample of (66) students, divided into two groups: (34) experimental, and (32) control. The results showed that the experimental group outperformed the control group in the post-application of the scientific thinking test, In each skill separately, and in the total skills. The study recommende

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 11 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Assessment of the Efficiency for some Disinfectants Against the Microorganisms Isolated From the Wards of Newborn and Premature Babies in Baghdad Teaching Hospital
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Objective : To assess the efficiency for some disinfectants against the microorganisms isolated from
the wards of newborn and premature babies in Educational Baghdad Hospital .
Methodology :This study had done from 1\8\2014 untile 1\9\2014, we had selected three types of
disinfectants ( Incidine , Bleach and Microbac Forte )which were used for disinfection in the wards of
newborn babies at Educational Baghdad Hospital to assess their effect against the microorganisms
isolated from these wards and study the mixed affect of these disinfectants againt same
microorganisms .
Results : The results of the present study showed that there is affect of the different concentrations of
the used disinfectants against the micro

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 31 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The dimensions of organizational confidence and its relationship to achieving the strategic position of banks: is an applied research on a sample of private Iraqi banks
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The research aims to show the dimensions of organizational trust represented by (administrative policies opportunities for innovation and self innovation and self- realization,availability of information,prevailing organizational values) and its reiationship to achieving the strategic position of banks represented by formation of expectations,buiiding networks,learning operations As the research was applied in each of the banks (middle east)Iraqi investment,Al-Ahly Iraqi, Business Bay, Al- Mansour investment bank),the qusestionnaire was adopted as a tool to collect data and information from the sample number (138)who are in the site (department director, division ,M.division director ,division officer, unit officer)the statistica

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 28 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Impact of Adequacy and Authoritative Evidences in the Audit Risks: An Exploratory Research for A Sample Views of Auditors in Iraq
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The Audit evedances represent the reconciliation tools between the Financial data shown on financial statements, and the level of satisfaction level of the Auditor about these statements. According that, the Auditor try to achieve the highest quantity of These evidances, and the most satisfactive of it…, but that will be so hard sometimes, when the internal controlling system is not good, and when the Auditor had some satisfied evidences, but not sharp… So, this research comes to inspect the relation between the quantity, and the level of satisfaction, and argument to prove that evidences gives. This research assumes that getting enough evidences leads to reduce faults, improves the auditing operation, and avoids risks. The research

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of organizational learning in building intellectual capital in public organizations: comparative research between the universities of Baghdad and al-Mustansiriya
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   Organizational learning is one of the most important means of human resource development in organizations, but most of the organizations, especially public ones do not realize the importance of organizational learning enough, and estimated his role accurately in building intellectual capital, the resource competitive importantly for organizations of the third millennium and who suffers is other end of lack of understanding of its meaning and how to prove its presence and measured in public organizations, so there is the need for this research, which aims to investigate the effect of organizational learning its processes (knowledge acquisition, Information transfer, Interpreting the information, Organizational me

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Impact of Authentic Leadership on Contextual Performance Analytical research in the departments of Foreign Affairs
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Abstract

This research aims to examine the correlation and the influence of Authentic Leadership on the contextual performance as a dependent variable, in the departments and Division of the iraqi Ministry of  Foreign Affairs To try out with a number of recommendations that contribute to raising the level of contextual performance in the Ministry. Starting from the importance of research in public organizations and its Role in society, the researcher adopted the descriptive analytical approach in accomplishing this research, The 99 people responded exclusively comprehensively, based on questionnaire that is include 28-item, using interviews and field observations as

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