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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 24 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Over the awareness of managers strategic importance of vigilance: "Exploratory study in the National Insurance Company"
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The rapid reality of events in the information era, and the enormous pressure of forces market, competition, permanent movement of the markets and consumers and the large development unprecedented of technology in all areas make a lot of organizations find it difficult to keep up with this rapid developments .Here was the role of strategic vigilance closer organization to their environment ,and play an active role in providing the necessary information to make decisions and insurance companies are not far from those changes .On this basis the researcher offered studied(Over the awareness of managers of insurance companies for strategic vigilance).Choosing sample of 35 managers in the National Insurance Company to test th

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The cognitive complexity of the leaders and their impact on the organizational flexibility of field research at the company's headquarters for the distribution of petroleum products
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The present research aims to test the effect of cognitive complexity as an independent variable in organizational agility as a responsive variable among the leaders working at the headquarters of the Iraqi Petroleum Products Distribution Company.

 To conclude a number of recommendations that contribute in the organizational agility in the company, and due to the importance of this research in public organizations and its notable role in community organizations. The research was carried out on a random sample of 101 individuals out of a total of 308, which represents the high leaders in the company (general managers, head of departments, and division officials). A questionnaire was used as information

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 06 2022
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
The Use of Social Networking sites in the Marketing of Values Analytical : Study of the Official Pages of the Ministry of Culture, Tourism and Antiquities and the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs on Facebook
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The social networking sites have brought about fundamental changes and a qualitative shift in the marketing industry and its strategies. The Iraqi ministries have used this site i.e. Facebook to spread and disseminate values in order to consolidate it in Iraqi society which has witnessed many changes in all aspects of life.

   The researcher studies the pages of both ministries to know the values contained in the publications of the pages of these two ministries, the quality of grooming as well as the forms in which these values are marketed.

     The researcher uses a survey method and content analysis for the publications of these two pages during the study period starting from January 1, 2

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The role of Cost awareness of activation of strategic cost management techniques of industrial units: A prospective study at the General Company for the manufacture of medicines and medical supplies in the province of Mosul
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The last ten years observed a shift enormous scientific in the method and way that it deals professional with the cost accounting and reflected the result those shift enormous scientific of increase the competitive environmental that accompanied the emergence of a modern manufacturing environmental on surface the long roductive life and emergence advanced information technology that give a central focus of his important on client with growing global markets growth on a large scale.

        The research aim to define the concept of cost awareness, the concept and methods of  strategic cost management and the role of cost awareness for managers of industrial units in strategic of cost managem

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Foresight of the development of the housing sector
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The housing sector in Iraq has suffered from multiple problems, the most prominent of which is the failure of the housing market to achieve housing production that faces population increases and a high number of households.

The research aims to foresight the future of the housing sector,  and to identify the expectations of experts in the development of the housing sector and housing production, in order to overcome the obstacles and problems.

Foresight does not mean forecasting about future events, but rather it is a process and skill aimed at familiarity with providing sufficient knowledge to achieve the desired future goals, Accordingly, adopting a method of future foresight will reduce error,  surprise and s

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
THERMAL BUCKLING OF RECTANGULAR PLATES WITH DIFFERENT TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION USING STRAIN ENERGY METHOD
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By using governing differential equation and the Rayleigh-Ritz method of minimizing the total potential energy of a thermoelastic structural system of isotropic thermoelastic thin plates, thermal buckling equations were established for rectangular plate with different fixing edge conditions and with different aspect ratio. The strain energy stored in a plate element due to bending, mid-plane thermal force and thermal bending was obtained. Three types of thermal distribution have been considered these are: uniform temperature, linear distribution and non-linear thermal distribution across thickness. It is observed that the buckling strength enhanced considerably by additional clamping of edges. Also, the thermal buckling temperatures and

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Organizational culture and its role in improving the quality of educational service at the university center Tindouf from the perspective of professors.
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This paper examines the impact of the organizational culture prevailing at the university center, Ali KafiTindouf, on the quality of the educational service provided by the university center Ali KafiTindouf from the point of view of the teachers of the center. The questionnaire method was used to determine the effect between the variables studied, by the distribution of 33 questionnaires on a random sample of the study community.

The study found that the organizational culture prevailing at the university center of Ali KafiTindouf contributed to reaching higher levels in the awareness and quality of the educational service provided by the teachers of the center.<

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 15 2021
Journal Name
Al-academy
Representations of the body in the works of the artist Ali Al-Najjar (analytical study): رحاب حسين حسن-سلام ادور يعقوب اللوس
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The twentieth century witnessed developments, transformations and artistic revolutions, including what was witnessed in Arab art, especially contemporary Iraqi plastic art, and as a result, research and studies have increased that dealt with its topics in different ways, which has become a presence that gave it its own language and unique discourse, especially the body, thus opening the way for its employment in composition, to become a form. It denotes interpretable meanings through its various formal representations, which are artistic, cultural and cognitive products. The modernity of the Iraqi formation in the body has passed through different roles, so it started to deal with the body as a representation that reflects the real envir

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 09 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Financial technology as one of the recovery strategies of the Iraqi banking sector in the post-Covid-19 stage: An exploratory study
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The research aims to employ one of the most important strategies for recovery from the crisis of the Covid-19 pandemic, which ravaged the economies of the entire world and its various sectors, including the banking sector, through financial technology that is based on digital transformation to achieve financial sustainability and the creation of innovative financial value chains in light of the decline in the banking sector as a result of The negative effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, be guided by the relevant international accounting standards to control the risks associated with financial technology. To recover from the Covid-19 crisis, the research came out with a set of recommendations, most notably financial technology from

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measuring the level of unemployment in Iraq by using the user / product schedule for 2010
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Economic performance is one of the most important indicators of economic activity and with the performance of the economy progress varied sources of output and increase economic growth rates and per capita national income, and to recover the business environment and increase investment rates and rising effectiveness of the financial and monetary institutions and credit market. Which leads to increased employment rates and reducing unemployment rates and the elimination of many of the social problems and improve the average per capita income as well as improve the level of national income.

The input / output tables is a technique mathematical indicates economic performance

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