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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 01 2021
Journal Name
Energies
Solidification Enhancement in a Triple-Tube Latent Heat Energy Storage System Using Twisted Fins
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This work evaluates the influence of combining twisted fins in a triple-tube heat exchanger utilised for latent heat thermal energy storage (LHTES) in three-dimensional numerical simulation and comparing the outcome with the cases of the straight fins and no fins. The phase change material (PCM) is in the annulus between the inner and the outer tube, these tubes include a cold fluid that flows in the counter current path, to solidify the PCM and release the heat storage energy. The performance of the unit was assessed based on the liquid fraction and temperature profiles as well as solidification and the energy storage rate. This study aims to find suitable and efficient fins number and the optimum values of the Re and the inlet tem

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2017
Journal Name
International Journal Of Heat And Mass Transfer
Melting enhancement in triplex-tube latent thermal energy storage system using nanoparticles-fins combination
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Publication Date
Sun Dec 30 2012
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Does the tertiary health care for Type 2 diabetic patients can help to Meet the recommended glycemic targets
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Objectives: To study the effect of providing tertiary (specialized) health care for type 2 diabetic patients to meet the WHO and ADA standards and glycemic targets.
Method: Six months, Jan. – Jun. 2010, cohort study was conducted on 600 adult diabetics who registered in the National Diabetes Center (NDC) / Al-Mustansiriya University, Baghdad – Iraq. They were followed for 3- 6 months; each time patients were examined physically and their blood pressure, height, weight and BMI were measured. Fasting blood samples were taken from all patients to test the FPG, HbA1c, T.Chol, TG, HDL and LDL.
Results: Patients’ age was 52.85±15.56 year and the male/female ratio was 1.01, the median duration of disease was 7 years and their BMI w

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Publication Date
Sat Nov 01 2014
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Jour. For Pure & Appl. Sci.
Derivationof Mathematical Equations to Calculate the Geographical Coordinates ofUnknown Position SituatedataDistance from the Observer Position Using GPS Data
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Publication Date
Wed May 10 2017
Journal Name
Australian Journal Of Basic And Applied Sciences
Photometric Viewpoint to the Structure of Spiral Galaxy NGC 3351 with griz-Filters
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The term ‘photometry’ refers to the accurate determination of the apparent brightness of an astronomical object. Until roughly 1980, nearly all astronomical photometry was done by means of analog measurements of photographic plates, or by analog or digital (photon-counting) techniques with photomultipliers. These photometers produced brightness readings which were typically displayed on dials, plotted on strip charts or printed on strips of paper, and it was often quite practical to analyse these raw data with pencil, paper and a slide rule or table of logarithms. However, during the late 1970s electronic area detectors for astronomy became more advanced: first, for a brief period, television-type cameras were employed, but these were s

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Use of Particle Swarm Algorithm to Solve Queuing Models with Practical Application
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This paper includes the application of Queuing theory with of Particle swarm algorithm or is called (Intelligence swarm) to solve the problem of The queues and developed for General commission for taxes /branch Karkh center in the service stage of the Department of calculators composed of six  employees , and it was chosen queuing model is a single-service channel  M / M / 1 according to the nature of the circuit work mentioned above and it will be divided according to the letters system for each employee, and  it was composed of data collection times (arrival time , service time, departure time)

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 07 2010
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Calculate the one – expectation to electronic charge of atomic system contiun two electron
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The aim of this work is to calculate the one- electron expectation value of the electronic charge of atomic system Z=2,3….7 and we compare with He atom . the electronic density function D(r1) of He atom and like ions are evaluated . using Hartree –Fock wave.

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 31 2019
Journal Name
Opcion
Analysis of Computer Textbook for the Second Intermediate Grade According to Digital Citizenship
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The research aims to build a list of digital citizenship axes and standards and indicators emanating from them, which should be included in the content of the computer textbook scheduled for second grade intermediate students in Iraq, and the analysis of the above mentioned book according to the same list using the descriptive analytical method ((method of content analysis)). The research community and its sample consisted of the content of the computer textbook scheduled for the second year intermediate students for the academic year 2018-2019, and the research tool was built in its initial form after reference to a set of specialized literature and previous studies that dealt with topics related to digital citizenship, and the authenticit

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 31 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
“The Strategic Partnership to Strategic Leadership of Upgrade Higher Education Quality (Global Perspective)”
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The higher education has become an enterprise integrate system that described as knowledge society, the essential part in its electronic and virtual format in the shadow of globalization challenges with its various dimensions . Until the logical ryles aboat a strategic partnership between the Iraqi higher education establishments and their international equivalent ones Strategic windows should be invested for the purpose of enhancing the quality of higher education in a sustainable way. This forms a challenge before the international education leaders on the social, operational and establishment's level to determinte knowledge gap, observing, diagnosing and processing in the present and future, e

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 02 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Science book second grade content analysis according to the Dimensions Of Sustainable Development
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The objective of this research is to analyze the content of science textbook at the elementary level, according to the dimensions of sustainable development for the academic year (2015-2016). To achieve this goal has been to build a list with dimensions of sustainable development to be included in science textbooks in primary school, after seeing the collection of literature and research and studies, as has been reached to the list of the dimensions of the three sustainable development and social, economic and environmental in the initial image consisted of (63) the issue of sub-divided the three-dimensional, the menu and offered a group of arbitrators and specialists in curriculum and teaching methods, and thus the menu consiste

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