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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 01 2010
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
تحديد وقت الصيانه الوقائية الامثل في شركة الهلال الصناعية المحدوده
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The main target of this paper is to determine the optimum time for preventive maintenance on machines. Tow methods has been implemented estimating the optimum time duration for preventive maintenance . the first techniques use scheduling depending on data concerning the machine maintenance cost and halted cost from the production reach to the optimum time for maintenance which reflect the minimum cost. Where as the second techniques depends on reability function to estimate the optimum duration time which reflect the minimum cost. The tow techniques above by which we count on in fixing the preventive maintenance both give same result . we also prove that the scheduling method best than the reability function .

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 30 2012
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Does the tertiary health care for Type 2 diabetic patients can help to Meet the recommended glycemic targets
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Objectives: To study the effect of providing tertiary (specialized) health care for type 2 diabetic patients to meet the WHO and ADA standards and glycemic targets.
Method: Six months, Jan. – Jun. 2010, cohort study was conducted on 600 adult diabetics who registered in the National Diabetes Center (NDC) / Al-Mustansiriya University, Baghdad – Iraq. They were followed for 3- 6 months; each time patients were examined physically and their blood pressure, height, weight and BMI were measured. Fasting blood samples were taken from all patients to test the FPG, HbA1c, T.Chol, TG, HDL and LDL.
Results: Patients’ age was 52.85±15.56 year and the male/female ratio was 1.01, the median duration of disease was 7 years and their BMI w

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Publication Date
Sat Nov 01 2014
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Jour. For Pure & Appl. Sci.
Derivationof Mathematical Equations to Calculate the Geographical Coordinates ofUnknown Position SituatedataDistance from the Observer Position Using GPS Data
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Publication Date
Wed Sep 29 2021
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Almzna given in the consolation of the Prophet)) for women- an objective stu
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 My research deals with the positions that the Prophet (PBUH) distressed. And condolences to those who lost her father and other problems and calamities that impede the life of women, has been given to the Lord of men, and good qualities, to strike the nation's finest proverbs in ensuring lost and lost of women and children, to be shown to us humanity in its finest form, and the best analyzed, and I hope God help And guidance and Rashad

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 27 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Term Delay and its Jurisprudences in the Section of Punishments and Felonies
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Different Arabic and Islamic societies are free of evil instincts. Therefore, certain provisions of legitimacy came to stress the importance of the intentions of sharia to achieve the interests of all people that involve several aspects, including the five fundamental things: religion, oneself, offspring, mind and money. Almighty Allah has specified certain punishments on those who violate these things by imposing punishments on the part of the criminal to preserve souls. He imposes the penalty of theft to preserve property, the Hadd punishment for adultery to preserve the symptoms, the punishment on the drunk to preserve the mind, and the Hadd punishment for the apostate to preserve the religion. By the adherence to these punishments li

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 15 2022
Journal Name
Al-academy
Experimentation in the works of the artist Muhammad Al-Kinani" an anaylytical study"
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The problem of the tagged research (experimentation in the works of the artist Muhammad al-Kinani is an analytical study) dealt with the nature of the concept of experimentation and its work in the works of Muhammad al-Kinani. Which adopts the removal of the concept of style and artistic style and takes the experience away from the pattern of repetition The importance of the research comes through the identification of the materials founding the artistic work. The current research benefits the specialists in the field of arts from the students of studies with a new and renewed formulation of creativity. The research objectives shed light on the contemporary experiences of the artist Muhammad Al-Kinani and its importance in benefiting res

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 05 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Rashid Street and its impact in the political twenties of the last century
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Rasheed Street has had great importance by the nature of what was seen as being of vital events of a key facility in the Iraqi capital Baghdad since ancient times until now .
And such as cultural and historical memory-rich street for Iraq, pulsating nerve since the beginning of the last century thanks to the commercial and intellectual stature, as well as being a tourist landmark frequented alleys most of the tourists coming to Iraq , which counted for them a source of tourist attraction, given the religious diversity of fungal who excelled by the street, as we find in exchange for his Church of the Virgin Mary, the time which was built in the middle of the Caliphs Mosque towering minarets and promised that the oldest and largest of t

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Publication Date
Sun May 04 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
The effect of developing the strength of the muscles of the arms and shoulders in developing the performance of some floor movements skills in artistic gymnastics for women
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Publication Date
Wed May 10 2017
Journal Name
Australian Journal Of Basic And Applied Sciences
Photometric Viewpoint to the Structure of Spiral Galaxy NGC 3351 with griz-Filters
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The term ‘photometry’ refers to the accurate determination of the apparent brightness of an astronomical object. Until roughly 1980, nearly all astronomical photometry was done by means of analog measurements of photographic plates, or by analog or digital (photon-counting) techniques with photomultipliers. These photometers produced brightness readings which were typically displayed on dials, plotted on strip charts or printed on strips of paper, and it was often quite practical to analyse these raw data with pencil, paper and a slide rule or table of logarithms. However, during the late 1970s electronic area detectors for astronomy became more advanced: first, for a brief period, television-type cameras were employed, but these were s

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Use of Particle Swarm Algorithm to Solve Queuing Models with Practical Application
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This paper includes the application of Queuing theory with of Particle swarm algorithm or is called (Intelligence swarm) to solve the problem of The queues and developed for General commission for taxes /branch Karkh center in the service stage of the Department of calculators composed of six  employees , and it was chosen queuing model is a single-service channel  M / M / 1 according to the nature of the circuit work mentioned above and it will be divided according to the letters system for each employee, and  it was composed of data collection times (arrival time , service time, departure time)

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