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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 21 2025
Journal Name
Applied System Innovation
Utilizing Soft Computing Techniques to Estimate the Axial Permanent Deformation of Asphalt Concrete
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Rutting is a crucial concern impacting asphalt concrete pavements’ stability and long-term performance, negatively affecting vehicle drivers’ comfort and safety. This research aims to evaluate the permanent deformation of pavement under different traffic and environmental conditions using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) prediction model. The model was built based on the outcomes of an experimental uniaxial repeated loading test of 306 cylindrical specimens. Twelve independent variables representing the materials’ properties, mix design parameters, loading settings, and environmental conditions were implemented in the model, resulting in a total of 3214 data points. The network accomplished high prediction accuracy with an R

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 16 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Humanities And Social Sciences Research
Meditative Thinking and its Relationship to the Optional Dynamic Formation of Female Students
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Gymnastics play from sports games that need to use appropriate methods and strategies that address mental abilities and that let the learner create and think about better performance with the supervision and guidance of the teacher. The researcher has chosen meditative thinking, which is a kind of thinking that needs to be taken care of. It is thinking about the situation in front of the individual, analysing it to his elements and drawing up plans that need to be understood with a view to reaching the results required by the situation and evaluating the results in the light of the plans. The analysis of the situation looks to different elements and look for internal relationships between these elements in this case. The problem is that fem

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 01 2025
Journal Name
Cabi Reviews
Precision agriculture strategies to reduce the impacts of soil degradation: A comprehensive review
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This review discusses precision agriculture techniques that help reduce the effects of soil degradation and improve soil health, based on an analysis of studies published in scientific databases such as Web of Science, Scopus, IEEE Xplore, Google Scholar, and ScienceDirect, with an emphasis on recent field research. The methodology included a qualitative analysis of case studies and application experiments in different areas to evaluate the impact of technologies such as controlled traffic farming (CTF), mechanized guidance (MG), precision fertilization (PF), precision irrigation (PI), conservation tillage (CT), and precision tillage (PT). Research results showed, CT to maintain soil structure and reduce organic matter loss increases soil f

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Publication Date
Tue May 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Heavy metals characteristics of settled particles of streets dust from Diwaniyah City- Qadisiyah Governorate - Southern Iraq
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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Environmental Engineering And Science
Performance evaluation of coronavirus closure on air quality over central, southern and northern parts of Iraq
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When the number of confirmed coronavirus disease cases rose in Iraq in the middle of February 2021, the Iraqi government performed a closure approach to constrain mobility and factory operations and enforce social distancing. In this research, the concentrations of air components (PM2.5, PM10, nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3)), which represent herein the degree of air quality index, were recorded, drawn and evaluated over central (Baghdad, the capital), northern (Kirkuk Province) and southern (Basra Province) Iraq before and during the closure. The experimental duration of this research was 6 months (from 1 January 2021 to 30 June 2021), which

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Leadership styles and their role in enhancing the intellectual capital Field research in the Ministry of Foreign
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This study has taken into consideration two vital variables (leadership, leadership styles and intellectual capital). The research aim through the relations between the leadership styles and intellectual capital, to building conceptual frame for the variables of study and exploring the nature of correlation relations between these variables and their effects in enhancing intellectual capital.

      The research was conducted at the Ministry of foreign in Iraq, and included a sample of leaders and subordinates amounted to (186), has been using the questionnaire as a key tool to collect data on the sample.

      For the dealing with

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The effect of self management in the hardiness at work / study analytic in hospital Alshaheed Gaze Alharery
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The research is Concerned the Relationship between Self Management which is a modern administrative term and its dimensions "Self Control, Trust, and Conscientiousness" with the Hardiness and its dimensions "Challenge, Commitment, and Control". And the impact of the first variable on the second in The Hospital of Alshaheed Gaze Alharery.

The Questionnaire used and distributed on sample (60) Persons, contain from (40) Doctor, and (20) Employees from the total society (103).

The statistical methods have been used for testing the hypothesis is the mean, standard deviation correlation coefficient.

    The resea

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Thefts in hospitals and the factors affecting themA case study in the Department of Health Baghdad - Rusafa
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Employee Stealing or internal theft is considered from the passive practices that can’t be denied or be hidden, In spite of the hospital privacy as a serving organization that works 24\7 and deleing with human lives, they weren’t infallible from that kind of practice. To prevent or reduce this practice, it was important to search for the organizational and behavioral factors influencing internal thefts. The study problem briefly is to reach the most organizational and behavioral factors influencing internal theft, in governmental hospitals in Baghdad Rusafa Health district, this was done by analyzing (20) administrative cases of thefts occurred in the District, also a sample of (60) specialist Doctor’s opinion work, in (3) hospital

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effect of Caroll’s Pattern on the Second Intermediate Class Pupils' Achievement in Geography
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The present study aims at finding out the (effect of the Caroll’s pattern on the second intermediate class pupils' achievement in geography)

The partial experimental design of two groups, experimental and control, with pre-post tests is used. The sample is represented in (74) female pupils. The sample is divided into two groups (38) experimental group and (36) control one. The sample is selected from first intermediate  class pupils    ( Am Salama Secondary School for girls) \ Baghdad\ Al-karkh-1, for academic year 2015-2016.

The researcher has equalized the two groups in several variables: the previous achievement tests, intelligence, age in months, the scor

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of knowledge management strategies in building core competenciesAn exploratory study of the views of a sample of managersOffice of Financial Supervision in Iraq
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The strategies of knowledge management have became the basis in the promotion of core competencies. Therefore gained an increasing prominence. This led the administrations of organizations to work to effectiveness of there strategies, which results to build there core competences through teamwork, empowerment and personal effectiveness of employees. From this arises research problem about the  organizations leaders recognize extent of knowledge management strategies which that lead to core competence. In addition the research tray definition the relation and nature of affect between its variables. The research was carried on sample (72) managers from board of supreme audit in Iraq and used statistical tools and methods.

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