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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The extent of including logical intelligence in the Book of chemistry for the fifth Grade of science
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The aim of the current research to determine the extent of logical intelligence in the book of chemistry for the fifth grade of science and to achieve the goal the researcher has prepared a special criterion in the areas of logical intelligence main and sub-to be included in the book after reviewing the previous literature and studies in this regard may be the final form after presentation to experts and arbitrators in the field of Educational and psychological sciences, curricula and teaching methods from (3) main areas and (21) sub-fields, then the researcher analyzed the book Bibih and applied branches and adopted the idea of ​​both explicit and implicit as a unit of registration and repet

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The effectiveness of the organization in the philosophy of the most prominent theoreticianAdministrative thought
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بناء على ما تقدم يتضح ان القطاع العام والقطاع الخاص ليسا موقفا ايدولوجيا انتقائيا، وانما هو انبثاق من العمود الفقري للصيرورة الرأسمالية القائمة على تقديس الملكية الخاصة، وان الادوار التي يمكن ان يلعباها ليسا منعزلين عن الحركة العامة للاقتصاد في كليته، وليس هما ابنا السياسات الاقتصادية، والبناء الفوقي بقدر ماهما نتاج الحركة الموضوعية وصيرورة التطور الاجتماعي معبرا عنها في تطور علاقات الانتاج وقوى الانتا

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Mangrove Landscaping As An Adaptation Pattern To Reduce The Impact of Climate Change in Segara Anakan Lagoon, Cilacap Regency Indonesia
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Mangrove landscaping in the Segara Anakan Lagoon (SAL) is an adaptation pattern of mangrove ecosystems to live and grow in unstable areas. This research aimed to develop a mangrove landscape to mitigate the impacts of ocean waves, currents, and inundation due to climate change. The study was conducted in SAL and Cilacap Coast (CC) using the environmental properties and climate change data. The data obtained were analyzed using mapping and trendline analyses. The results showed that mangrove landscaping in Segara Anakan had four zones with Nypa frutican, Rhizophora styllosa, Aegiceras corniculatum, Rhizophora apiculata, Avicennia marina, Sonneratia alba identified as the best adaptation of mangrove species. Climate change give a high impa

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Robust Estimations for power Spectrum in ARMA(1,1) Model Simulation Study
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Simulation Study

 

Abstract :

Robust statistics Known as, Resistance to mistakes resulting of the deviation of Check hypotheses of statistical properties ( Adjacent Unbiased  , The Efficiency of data taken from a wide range of probability distributions follow a normal distribution or a mixture of other distributions with different standard deviations.

 power spectrum function lead to, President role in the analysis of Stationary random processes, organized according to time, may be discrete random variables or continuous. Measuring  its total capacity as frequency function.

Estimation methods Share with

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The factors that affecting in the recruitment of a teaching staff for the Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) in university teaching at the University of Khartoum.
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This research aimed at identifying the factors that affecting in the recruitment of a teaching staff for the Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) in university teaching at the University of Khartoum. The descriptive method was followed. The questionnaire was used as a tool for data collection,, which was distributed directly to a sample of (181) respondent of the teaching staff members of the senate at University of Khartoum from those who were attend at the senate meeting No. (409) which was held on 22 August 2016 Of (272). The researcher followed for the distribution the chance method, where each questionnaire was distributed to each of a teaching staff from different faculties at the University of Khartoum, according to his willingness

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 28 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
The Effect of the (Team - Pair - Solo) Strategy in Learning the Accuracy of the Spiking Skill in Volleyball
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This study aims to prepare educational sessions for the strategy (team-pair-solo) in practical volleyball lessons for female students and identifying its effect on learning the accuracy of the spiking skill in volleyball. An experimental design with experimental and control groups was employed on a purposive sample of (30) female students who were to constitute (42.254%) from their community represented by the sophomores at the College of Physical Education and Sports Sciences for Girls / University of Baghdad who are in good standing in the morning study for the academic year (2022-2023), whose total number is (71) students. According to the determinants of the experimental design, participants were divided into two equal groups, a

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Simulation of material requirements planning system According to FOQ, EOQ, L4L A study in the General Company for woolen industries / blankets factory
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This paper is submitted as anew approach to simulate manufacturing control & planning system to define the problem of designing control system on the needs for materials.

Production planning & control is a total and complex operation, resides in the essence of manufacturing companies operations. The successful process of production planning and control systems is critical for the staying of manufacturing organizations in markets leading to the increasing consumer competition and which dominate most of manufacturing sectors because of the market oriented economy , thus , what has happened previously , that the companies possessed a great inventory of crude material, components, and groupings and they use in flexible techni

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Crossref
Publication Date
Tue Oct 23 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of financial derivatives on the risk of foreign currency exchange volatility in enhancing the quality of profits - a method that is prescribed in the Iraqi environment
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The objective of this research is to develop a method for applying financial derivatives in the local environment to reduce the risk of foreign exchange rate fluctuations to enhance quality of accounting profits through Financial reporting to local units In accordance with international financial reporting standards, To accomplish this objective was selected a sample of Iraqi units exposed to the risk of fluctuations in foreign currency rates, As the research found:

  • many companies and banks in the local environment a lot of losses due to fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates.
  • that financial derivatives in the Iraqi environment represent

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 31 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Evaluating Teacher Preparation Programs in Scientific Disciplines at the Faculty of Education in Al-Aqsa University in Light of the Requirements of the Labor Market
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The current study seeks to evaluate teacher preparation programs in the scientific disciplines at the College of Education in Al-Aqsa University in the light of the requirements of the labor market. It further aims to reveal the significance of the differences in the sample members’ response averages of to the availability of labor market requirements in the program that prepares the teacher of scientific disciplines at the Faculty of Education in Al-Aqsa University taking into account the (gender, program) variables. The study followed the descriptive analytical approach, and so a questionnaire was distributed to a sample of scientific discipline students in the teacher preparation program adopted in Al-Aqsa University, (200) male and

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Crossref
Publication Date
Sat Mar 26 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Applying Total Value Management to Improve Process Design: An Applied Research in the General Company of Food Industry –Al Mammon Factory
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The aim of this research is to apply the concept of total value management to improve the process design of producing the toothpaste in Al Mammon factory one of the in the general company of food industry. The concept of total value management is concerning with achieve more than one values which are important for the customers as these values are related to the customers satisfaction. The research problem is that the factory did not measure the effectiveness of process design as this company has weakness in analyzing this effectiveness in synchronies with total value management. On the other side, the company did not give more attention to the cost of products and selling prices within the value cost/ profit which is one of the

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