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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Tue May 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Chaotic behaviour of the Rossler model and its analysis by using bifurcations of limit cycles and chaotic attractors
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The behaviour of certain dynamical nonlinear systems are described in term as chaos, i.e., systems' variables change with the time, displaying very sensitivity to initial conditions of chaotic dynamics. In this paper, we study archetype systems of ordinary differential equations in two-dimensional phase spaces of the Rössler model. A system displays continuous time chaos and is explained by three coupled nonlinear differential equations. We study its characteristics and determine the control parameters that lead to different behavior of the system output, periodic, quasi-periodic and chaos. The time series, attractor, Fast Fourier Transformation and bifurcation diagram for different values have been described.

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 30 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Advanced Study of Promoted Pt /SAPO-11 Catalyst for Hydroisomerization of the n-Decane Model and Lube Oil
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SAPO-11 is synthesized from silicoaluminophosphate in the presence of di-n-propylamine as a template. The results show that the sample obtained has good crystallinity, 396m2/g BET surface area, and 0.35 cm3/g pore volume. The hydroisomerization activity of (0.25)Pt (1)Zr (0.5)W/SAPO-11 catalyst was determined using n-decane and base oil. All hydroisomerization experiments of n-decane were achieved at a fixed bed plug flow reactor at a temperature range of 200-275°C and  LHSV 0.5-2h-1.  The results show that the n-decane conversion increases with increasing temperature and decreasing LHSV, the maximum conversion of 66.7 % was achieved at temperature 275°C and LHSV of 0.5 h-1. Meanwhile, the same catalyst was used to improve base oil spec

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 02 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Teaching techniques due to the Brain-based learning theory among math teachers
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The purpose of the study is to identify the teaching techniques that mathematics' teachers use due to the Brain-based learning theory. The sample is composed of (90) teacher: (50) male, (40) female. The results have shown no significant differences between male and female responses' mean. Additionally, through the observation of author, he found a lack of using Brain-based learning techniques. Thus, the researcher recommend that it is necessary to involve teachers in remedial courses to enhance their ability to create a classroom that raise up brain-based learning skills.  

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 13 2020
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences
A comparison of some forecasting models to forecast the number of old people in Iraqi retirement homes
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Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using Box-Jenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2).

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 23 2025
Journal Name
Научный форум
PHRASEOLOGISMS RELATED TO THE USE OF COLORS IN SPEECH AS A MEANS OF ENRICHING MODERN RUSSIAN LANGUAGE
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The paper examines key aspects of the use of phraseologi-cal units related to colors in Russian culture and speech. It explores their role in shaping cultural identity, reflecting national characteristics and men-tality. The study analyzes the frequency and contexts of the use of color-related phraseological units in contemporary speech, as well as the influ-ence of media and literature on their popularization. The author highlights the significance of phraseological units in preserving cultural heritage and fostering a deeper understanding of language and culture.

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Publication Date
Sat Aug 01 2020
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences
A comparison of some forecasting models to forecast the number of old people in Iraqi retirement homes
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Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using BoxJenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2)

Publication Date
Sat Jul 29 2017
Journal Name
Inhalation Toxicology
The risk of occupational exposure to mercury vapor in some public dental clinics of Baghdad city, Iraq
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Publication Date
Sun Nov 01 2020
Journal Name
J Dermatol Venereol
Clinical and histopathological evaluation of pigmented morphea with new insight in relation to etiopathogenesis of the disease
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KE Sharquie, AA Noaimi, E Abdulqader, WK Al-Janabi, J Dermatol Venereol, 2020 - Cited by 6

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 31 2017
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The fate of Pharaoh's magicians in the Quran : objective study
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Out of the search for the truth, the reader of the Holy Qur’an should know the fate of the sorcerers whom Pharaoh threatened when they announced it as pure monotheism in front of seeing the stick as it turned into a clear serpent, when they said: We believe in the Lord of the worlds, the Lord of Moses and Aaron, and the clear promise came to cut and crucify the trunks of palm trees, and they said what they said if Being supplicants to God (May God cause us to die as Muslims), did Pharaoh actually carry out what he promised them?? So we studied that subject from this angle. Because what looms on the horizon of the Holy Qur’an is that there is no one who seeks refuge with God Almighty in times of adversity except that God Almighty has

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 07 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
activating the role of the private sector in housting finance
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Housing finance is considered to be an important and basic element in housing market, so it’s very important to aid individuals and particular institutions to built or buy new housing units.Inadequate finance system for housing is capable of supporting families to fulfill their needs and helping them to buy and built houses represented a big gap between the need to housing units and available stock. The most important finance institutions in Iraq nowa days are the Real Estate Bank and Housing Fund.Althoughthe role played byeach ofthese institutions, but thattheir roleis stilllimited in thehousing financeat the level ofindividuals orinstitutions. the adoption of the real estate Bank and housing fund to the amount allocated by th

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