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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 10 2017
Journal Name
Al-academy
The importance of folkloric games in the Iraqi child theatre
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The folkloric games widely considered as expressional forms of nations culture and their environment which can be an important element in Iraqi child theatre shows. For its moral and habits relation to the needs of children which present an effective mean to preserve the true identity of the society character and moral. The research concluded many topics considering the importance of folkloric games in the Iraqi child theatre, the first chapter studied the problem , the necessity , the aim of the research to clarify the importance of folkloric games in Iraqi child theatre, the second chapter is the theoretical part of the research that studied the concept of folkloric games and its implementation in Iraqi child theatre . the third chapte

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 05 2016
Journal Name
Al-academy
The Characteristics of Art forms in the Byzantine icons painting
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The problem with research in the question of whether art forms in the religious icon Byzantine, heiress docility and tradition craftsman arts civilizations of the above? ... And if you are well, you helped a quotation on the entry of strange ideas rampant within religious traditions, and are prompted to do Movement rejected prohibition, and the outbreak of the icons war? ... Or is it, in fact - and as researcher finds - the result of a need communication between the religious and the recipient organization in the establishment of a deliberative speech, be visible, along with reading it and audible? .. And lies the importance of this study is being added technical knowledge of the library that will enrich researchers and scholars in this

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 20 2019
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
The American vision of the Non-governmental Organizations in Iraq
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The American vision of the Non-governmental Organizations in Iraq the topic area of that’s paper dealing with Civil Society as concept and practice, its already consider as Western concept and associated with liberalism and political development, they are many definitions of its but most significantly is all organizations, agencies, trade unions and non-governmental institutions, that’s agencies were established after 2003 and received funds from United States and UN development agencies. The non- governments organizations played a significant role as support and develop many cultural, healthy, educational, and social projects, also that’s organizations try to reduction the effects of terrorists actions especially after ISI

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 03 2018
Journal Name
Al-academy
The Technicality and Spontaneity Paradoxes in the Art of the Playwright -Examples of Improvisation in Modern European Theater
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The research deals with the problems of improvisation in two basic subjects and applied a samples  and conclusion. The first topic focuses on the concept of improvisation and spontaneity and clarifies the confusion between them. The second topic deals with the foundations and principles on which the actor is based in his artistic preparation for the purpose of developing his improvisational abilities.

The research focuses on clarifying the dimensions of improvisational techniques and its multiplicity in the modern theater. It analyzes the method of improvisation and its use in the construction and composition of the theatrical performance. It deals with two important experiments, such as the experience of the Russian directo

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison between some well- Known methods to estimate the parameter of the proposed method of measurement and the reliability of the distribution function with two parameters Rally by simulation
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Abstract

            Rayleigh distribution is one of the important distributions used for analysis life time data, and has applications in reliability study and physical interpretations. This paper introduces four different methods to estimate the scale parameter, and also estimate reliability function; these methods are Maximum Likelihood, and Bayes and Modified Bayes, and Minimax estimator under squared error loss function, for the scale and reliability function of the generalized Rayleigh distribution are obtained. The comparison is done through simulation procedure, t

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 30 2024
Journal Name
Sports Culture
Designing and rationing of test to measure the motor compatibility for the eye and the leg for students of the Faculty of Physical Education and Sports Sciences, Samarra University
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The research aims to identify: 1-Designing a test to measure the movement compatibility of the eye and the leg for the students of the Faculty of Physical Education and Sports Sciences, Samarra University. 2-Codification (setting scores and standard levels) for the results of the motor compatibility test for the eye and the leg for students of the Faculty of Physical Education and Sports Sciences, Samarra University. The researchers reached the some following conclusions: 1-A test to measure the movement compatibility of the eye and the leg for the students of the Faculty of Physical Education and Sports Sciences. 2-There is a discrepancy in the standard levels of the research sample.

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 15 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Biodiversity and Genetic Relationships to the Species for the genus Gladiolus L. (Iridaceae) Wild Growing in Iraq Using RAPD-PCR Technique
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This study observed the genetic diversity and relationships among 4 species belonging to genus Gladiolus L. , by using the Random  Amplified Polymorphic DNA (RAPD) technique , the study  includes extraction of genomic DNA from the dray leaves by using commercial kit . 4 random primers  used the produced of many polymorphic bands among the 4 species , it was also possible to fined the DNA fingerprint of all studied species.Through the appearance of a number of bands that were unique to each species.Genetic distances ranged from 0.10 to 0.86, and used cluster  analysis were performed to construct dendrogram.Cluster analysis grouped the 4 species Into tow main clusters depending on their ancestor and their morphological

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Test Wisdom of Postgraduates at the University of Samarra and Its Relationship to Learning and Psychological Tension: Test Wisdom of Postgraduates at the University of Samarra and Its Relationship to Learning and Psychological Tension
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Abstract

The aim of the present research is to identify the test wisdom and the preoccupation with learning and psychological tension among postgraduate students at the University of Samarra according to the variables of the department,  gender,  age,  and employee or non-employee, and revealing the relationship between the test wisdom and the preoccupation with learning and psychological tension. The research sample consisted of (75) students randomly selected from postgraduate students at the college of Education. The researcher applies test –wisdom of (Mellman & Ebel) and measurement of preoccupation with learning prepared by (Al-zaabi 2013) also, the researcher used the scale of t

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 07 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effect of KWL Strategy on the Achievement of the Students of the fourth class literary in the subject of History and the Development of Cognitive Thinking skills
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Whereas conventional methods of teaching history do not meet the sometimes purpose has suggested some educators strategies modern help to improve the level of students in the education process through activating prior knowledge and employed in positions of current learning, and focus attention on the points and the outstanding elements of the content and practice techniques Calendar criticof ideas and meanings and mental and linguistic activities used to verify the extent of reaching understanding.                                       &n

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of strategic leadership in knowledge management processes "Diagnostic Study in the Office of the Ministry of Oil - Project Department"
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The research deals with the important and modern two subjects, strategic leadership which have six demotions and knowledge management
(four demotions') . the gools & the research is to know the relation & the effect them in the oil ministry (project department) , the sample was (50) persons who works in the department the questionnaire was the tool of data gathering .

The research divided to four parties, the first  to the theotical review of the research variables, the second to the research methrology, the third to analysis and discoed the empirical results the last to the conclusions and recommendations .

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