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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measure the relationship between inflation and the exchange rate in the formulation of Monetary policy in Iraq for the period 1990-2018
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       Due to the importance of the relationship between the phenomenon of inflation and the exchange rate in the formulation of monetary policy in Iraq, the exchange rate plays a strategic role in limiting the inflation caused by the monetary expansion due to government spending, as a point of a view, the inefficiency of interest to achieve the monetary market balance and stability of the general level of prices as an overall goal of monetary policy in Iraq, the exchange rate has emerged as a brake on inflation in Iraq, as the research found that the monetary authority in the period 2003-2018 provided a methodical development in the formulation of monetary policy towards realizing the effects of inf

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 26 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Evaluation of Risk Management practices and their relationship to the Entrepreneur behavior of managers in insurance companies: applied research
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The objective of the research is to evaluate the risk management practices of the variables (risk management structure, risk management methods, key components of risk management) and their relation to the principled behavior of managers behavior(innovation, proactive, risk acceptance) By adopting the questionnaire as a main tool in collecting data from managers in the National and raq insurance companies of (50) officials Department manager, department administrator, unit administrator, and analyzed their answers using the SPSS In calculating arithmetic mean, standard deviation, percentage weight and simple correlation coefficient. The most prominent conclusions were:1.There is a positive trend in the sample in both companies and a high

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The use of multi choice Goal Programming to reduce storage and shortage costs of blood units in health care centers
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We use of multi-choice Goal Programming (MCGP), which is a developed model of Goal Programming where it is used in circumstances of the multiplicity and difference of goals when choosing between decision alternatives in cases of allocating resources, as it is a model that seeks to find the closest and best solutions to the specific values ​​of the goals within the aspiration levels, as the first goal in the multi-choice goal programming model that is used to reduce the total cost of storage and shortage, while the other goal was to reduce the difference between the real demand that the hospitals need from the blood transfusion center and the units that already achieved. The case Iraqi Center

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2017
Journal Name
International Journal Of Science And Research
Precise Solutions of a Viscoelastic Fluid Flow in an Annular Pipe under an Impulsive Pressure with the Fractional Generalized Burgers' Model
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This paper deals with an analytical study of the flow of an incompressible generalized Burgers’ fluid (GBF) in an annular pipe. We discussed in this problem the flow induced by an impulsive pressure gradient and compare the results with flow due to a constant pressure gradient. Analytic solutions for velocity is earned by using discrete Laplace transform (DLT) of the sequential fractional derivatives (FD) and finite Hankel transform (FHT). The influences of different parameters are analyzed on a velocity distribution characteristics and a comparison between two cases is also presented, and discussed in details. Eventually, the figures are plotted to exhibit these effects.

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Employment cost management tools in the fast-track method Of the constructionindustries for the purpose of rationalizing costs: An applied research in the Shatt al-Diwaniya transference project General Authority for projects of irrigation and reclamation
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The important factor in the success of construction projects is its ability to objective estimate of the cost of the project and adapt to the changes of the external environment, which is affected by a lot of elements and the requirements of the competitive environment. The faces of those projects are several problems in order to achieve particular goals. To overcome these difficulties has been the development of research in the last two decades and turn the focus on the role of the cost of project management, by providing information and assist management in planning and control of the budget among the main elements of the project, namely, (time-cost-quality),The research aims at the possibility of developing and implementing mechanisms

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 30 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Effect of The Tax Core Competencies in The Tax Settlement: An Empirical Study of The General Commission for Taxes
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This Study Sought to Determine The Relationship and Impact Between The Tax Core Capabilities and Tax Settlement The Study Took Place in The Tax Administration, and Based The Problem Was to Two Hypotheses As Solutions Initial Mocked Content to Explain The Relationship Between The Phenomena, and to Test The Validity of Assumptions And Due To The Fact That The General Authority for Taxes is The Body for The Advancement of The Collection Tax In Iraq Random Sample Was Selected to Represent The Population of The Study, Since The Sample Included 22 Individuals Representing 70% of The Total Community to Study, Represented by The Director General, Agents and Directors of Departments and Branch Managers Managers Working in The General Authority fo

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 03 2021
Journal Name
Association Of Arab Universities Journal Of Engineering Sciences
Correlation of Minimum Miscibility Pressure for Hydrocarbon Gas Injection In Southern Iraqi Oil Fields
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One of the most important enhanced oil recoveries methods is miscible displacement. During this method preferably access to the conditions of miscibility to improve the extraction process and the most important factor in these conditions is miscibility pressure. This study focused on establishing a suitable correlation to calculate the minimum miscibility pressure (MMP) required for injecting hydrocarbon gases into southern Iraq oil reservoir.  MMPs were estimated for thirty oil samples from southern Iraqi oil fields by using modified Peng and Robinson equation of state. The obtained PVT reports properties were used for tunning the equation of state parameters by making a match between the equation of state results with experimenta

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Publication Date
Wed May 01 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Evaluation of Heavy Metal Accumulation in Sawa Lake Sediments, Southern Iraq using Magnetic Study
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Heavy metal contamination comprises a great concern in the environment. A magnetic study combined with heavy metal analyses was performed in the Sawa Lake in Al-Muthanna governorate (southern Iraq). Concentrations of selected heavy metals (Cr, Fe, Ni, As and Pb) have been measured and magnetic susceptibility (χ) of sediment samples collected from the lake bottom was calculated.

The results confirmed that a cement plant, which is located less than two kilometers away from the lake has no contamination levels on the lake’s sediments. No enhancement in the magnetic susceptibility was observed. X-ray florescence (XRF) was performed for heavy metal analyses.

Spatial variations of χ with the mean value of 4.58 x

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 30 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Petrophysical Properties and Digenetic Evolution of Shuaiba Formation in Nasiriyah Oil Field, Southern Iraq
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     Shuaiba Formation is a carbonate succession deposited within Aptian Sequences. This research deals with the petrophysical and reservoir characterizations characteristics of the interval of interest in five wells of the Nasiriyah oil field. The petrophysical properties were determined by using different types of well logs, such as electric logs (LLS, LLD, MFSL), porosity logs (neutron, density, sonic), as well as gamma ray log. The studied sequence was mostly affected by dolomitization, which changed the lithology of the formation to dolostone and enhanced the secondary porosity that replaced the primary porosity. Depending on gamma ray log response and the shale volume, the formation is classified into three zone

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 30 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Petrophysical Evaluation of Mauddud Formation in Selected Wells from Ratawi Oil Field, Southern Iraq
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    The objective of this paper is determining the petrophysical properties of the Mauddud Formation (Albian-Early Turonian) in Ratawi Oil Field depending on the well logs data by using interactive petrophysical software IP (V4.5). We evaluated parameters of available logs that control the reservoir properties of the formation, including shale volume, effective porosity, and water saturation. Mauddud Formation is divided into five units, which are distinguished by various reservoir characteristics. These units are A, B, C, D, and E. Through analyzing results of the computer processed interpretation (CPI) of available wells, we observed that the main reservoir units are B and D, being distinguished by elevated values of eff

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