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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Effect of The Mental image Building Dimensions for The Company to Aattract Attention of Iraqi Consumers for local Products: Exploratory Study
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The survey showed sample opinions of officials in the general company for vegetable oils industry, and the statement of the order of the effect of these dimensions depending on the degree of importance, the questionnaire was used as a key tool in collecting data and information of the sample consisted of 30 officials, arithmetic mean, standard deviation, percentages, Spearman correlation coefficient and the global statistical analysis as a statistical methods that based on statistical program (SPSS), The researcher came to several conclusions, most important that there is high agreement by the respondents of the importance of the dimensions of building a mental picture of the company and to attract the consumer's attention, Also research

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 07 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effect of Clare's Plan on Female Students' Achievement in the History Subject in the Institute of Teachers' Preparation
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Teaching through the system of personal learning, known as (Clare's plan) is amongst the most prominent plans which depend on self-education, as it received worldwide recognition. The plan lets the learner achieve learning by depending on himself after being familiar with the educational goals given to him, then he starts to solve the exercises and the drills accompanying the unit. After that, he checks his achievement by answering the self-evaluation tests. This method offers more opportunities for personal interaction than do the traditional systems, and individual leaning is a methodical expression aims at taking care of the learner and making him the locus of the processes of teaching and learning.

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 01 2020
Journal Name
Plant Archives
a study about some biological aspects of invasive molly fish “poecilia latipinna” (lesueur, 1821) in southern iraq
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Publication Date
Sun Sep 07 2014
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Seasonal Study for Habitat of Myriophyllum spicatum L. in Al-Burgga Marsh, Hor Al-Hammar, Southern Iraq
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Myriophyllum spicatum distribution in Al-Burgga marsh, Hor Al-Hammar was described in relation to some of the physical-chemical properties for its habitat (water depth, light penetration, water temperature, water salinity, pH, dissolved oxygen, Ca+2, Mg+2, reactive NO2=, reactive NO3-1, and reactive PO4-3) during 2011, seasonally. CANOCO ordination program (CCA) was used to analyse the data. Its vegetation cover percentage was with its peak at summer, its value was 90 %, while the lowest value was 20 % in winter. Statistically, Positive relationships for WT, sal., Ca+2, Mg+2, reactive NO2=, reactive NO3-1, and reactive PO4-3 with the vegetation cover percentage were observed. While, negative relationships for WD, pH, and DO with the ve

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Colistin as A Good Monotherapy to Restrain the Pathogenicity of Acinetobacter baumannii In vivo and In vitro
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        Acinetobacter baumannii  (A. baumannii) is a major opportunistic nosocomial pathogen, mostly resistant to several groups of antibiotics. Colistin is now used as a last-line treatment for isolates that are highly resistant. The purpose of this study is to identify the importance of LptD; which is involved in the translocation of LPS from the inner membrane to the outer membrane in compartment with LptA and LptC of A. baumannii and its indispensable role as a virulence factor, and the efficiency of colistin as a monotherapy. In the current research, two isolates of A.baumannii were used, the local isolate HHR1 isolated from urine sample and the global strain ATCC 17904, and three antibiot

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Publication Date
Tue Apr 01 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Comparative Analysis of The Combined Model (Spatial and Temporal) and Regression Models for Predicting Murder Crime
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This research dealt with the analysis of murder crime data in Iraq in its temporal and spatial dimensions, then it focused on building a new model with an algorithm that combines the characteristics associated with time and spatial series so that this model can predict more accurately than other models by comparing them with this model, which we called the Combined Regression model (CR), which consists of merging two models, the time series regression model with the spatial regression model, and making them one model that can analyze data in its temporal and spatial dimensions. Several models were used for comparison with the integrated model, namely Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Decision Tree Regression (DTR), Random Forest Reg

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 05 2023
Journal Name
Communications In Mathematical Biology And Neuroscience
THE DYNAMICS OF A STAGE-STRUCTURE PREY-PREDATOR MODEL WITH HUNTING COOPERATION AND ANTI-PREDATOR BEHAVIOR
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The mathematical construction of an ecological model with a prey-predator relationship was done. It presumed that the prey consisted of a stage structure of juveniles and adults. While the adult prey species had the power to fight off the predator, the predator, and juvenile prey worked together to hunt them. Additionally, the effect of the harvest was considered on the prey. All the solution’s properties were discussed. All potential equilibrium points' local stability was tested. The prerequisites for persistence were established. Global stability was investigated using Lyapunov methods. It was found that the system underwent a saddle-node bifurcation near the coexistence equilibrium point while exhibiting a transcritical bifurcation

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 31 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
History Matching of Reservoir Simulation Model: a Case Study from the Mishrif Reservoir, Buzurgan Oilfield, Iraq
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In petroleum reservoir engineering, history matching refers to the calibration process in which a reservoir simulation model is validated through matching simulation outputs with the measurement of observed data. A traditional history matching technique is performed manually by engineering in which the most uncertain observed parameters are changed until a satisfactory match is obtained between the generated model and historical information. This study focuses on step by step and trial and error history matching of the Mishrif reservoir to constrain the appropriate simulated model. Up to 1 January 2021, Buzurgan Oilfield, which has eighty-five producers and sixteen injectors and has been under production for 45 years when it started

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2024
Journal Name
Results In Engineering
Stability analysis for the phytoplankton-zooplankton model with depletion of dissolved oxygen and strong Allee effects
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Publication Date
Tue Oct 31 2023
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The fatwa based on the statement of Zafar In the Hanafi school of thought
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Each school of Islamic jurisprudence has principles and rules upon which the diligent work in these schools is based. This is due to the view of sanctification of these rulings, as they are divine rulings. Therefore, the goal is to reach a ruling that represents the intent of the legislator as much as possible.
Hence, these schools of thought established rules for issuing fatwas with the intention of restricting the performance of a fatwa to the hands of those who are qualified for it and have met its conditions, so they gave priority to the most knowledgeable person over others to perform the fatwa. In the Hanafi school of thought, for example, the saying of Imam Abu Hanifa (may God have mercy on him) is given precedence over others,

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