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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 31 2017
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The effect of the significance of the Qur'anic context in the allocation of the year
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Acting on the Holy Qur’an by contemplating its meanings, stopping at its commands and prohibitions, and everything in it that guides us to truth and mercy. The Holy Qur’an includes it for various purposes in one verse, and there is no doubt that this is part of the perfection of this great book, and one of the sciences of the fundamentalists is the indication of the context, and it is a great science of high rank, and it is one of the most important things that lead to the correct understanding of the miraculous and decisive book of God Almighty, and one of the best meanings of the Qur’an It was not from the context of the verses, and from here it can be said that the indication of the context is one of the origins of deriving lega

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Trends of Fiscal Policy in bearing the financial burden of the government and the Extent Leadership in Iraq during the period 2004- 2014
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Abstract

There has been a heated controversy over the role the financial policy plays and how sufficient   it   is   in affording   the   financial   burden. This   burden   is   known as the operational   current expenses   which   the   governments   of   various countries mainly afford,   despite the   discrepancy   in   the   government’s   economic   policy.   After   the deterioration and deficit in the state budget in all countries nowadays, it was necessary to find an appropri

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 24 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Estimate the Parameters and Related Probability Functions for Data of the Patients of Lymph Glands Cancer via Birnbaum-Saunders Model
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 In this paper,we estimate the parameters and related probability functions, survival function, cumulative distribution function , hazard function(failure rate) and failure  (death) probability function(pdf) for two parameters Birnbaum-Saunders distribution which is fitting the complete data for the patients of  lymph glands cancer. Estimating the parameters (shape and scale) using (maximum likelihood , regression quantile and shrinkage) methods and then compute the value of mentioned related probability  functions depending on sample from real data which describe the duration of survivor for patients who suffer from the lymph glands cancer based on diagnosis of disease or the inter of patients in a hospital for perio

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 30 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The Impact of Fear and Anti-Predator Behavior on the Dynamics of Stage-Structure Prey–Predator Model With a Harvesting
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In this paper, an ecological model with stage-structure in prey population, fear, anti-predator and harvesting are suggested. Lotka-Volterra and Holling type II functional responses have been assumed to describe the feeding processes . The local and global stability of steady points of this model are established. Finally, the global dynamics are studied numerically to investigate the influence of the parameters on the solutions of the system, especially the effect of fear and anti-predation.

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 21 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Reality of Environmental Pollution and The Use of Environmental Taxes to Limit It: Analytical Search for Diesel Generators in Governorate of Baghdad
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The research depth and dimensions of the problem of environmental pollution resulting from the combustion of fuel used in electric power generators, especially in the summer and you are the national electric power supplied by almost non-existent state where this problem is a local phenomenon that has serious dimensions to human health, as well as the possibility of using a the tax system tools of b (environmental taxes) to reduce these pollutants, so the search is aimed at the types of gases emitted from burning fuel electric generators operating in the province of Baghdad and then measure the amount of environmental pollution as well as compared to the amount of some of these gases, which is more risk to humans with permitted by the Wor

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 20 2019
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
The authority of the president in the successive regimes in Iraq in the time - span 1920-2003
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Abstract The success of the system of government in any country needs to have a handle on the amount of power efficiency , capacity , capability and wisdom, Iraq has gone through since its inception through several stages of time, namely: The first stage: which ran from August 23, 1921 until July 14, 1958 and was ruling monarchy (rule of the royal family) and punishing power of political elites both of them and works access to power without taking into consideration the laws and principles of the Constitution, and as a result of the inability of civilian powers and political parties access to power to grant that army officers regulatory and disciplinary specifications as well as possessing arms and overthrow the rule of the minority coup

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 30 2013
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
هامات The contributions of the Kurdish scholars in the science of the Qur’an in the seventh and eighth Hijri centuries
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This research sheds light on the contributions of a group of scientific Kurdish scholars in the seventh and eighth Hijri centuries, who devoted themselves to serving science with the bad political and economic conditions at the time, and the research pointed to the flowering of science and how students travel in order to provide them with science, obtain a scientific certificate, then take up The research efforts of the scholars in the two Hijri century mentioned in the science of the Qur’an, whether in the field of recitations, intonation or interpretation, and the research ends with a conclusion in which I mentioned the most important conclusions reached in this research.

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 09 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The financial aid of the Central Bank of Iraq to the government and its reflection on indicators of banking stability/ Applied Research
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The research aims to define the images of financial aid that it provides within their tasks (central banks to governments) and how it can affect the indicators of banking stability, as well as monitoring the levels of banking stability in the Iraqi economy through the indicators used by the Central Bank of Iraq, and the importance of research in banking stability lies in Iraq, because any decrease in the movement of the aggregate banking stability index will reflect negatively on the financial sector in Iraq. Therefore, the Central Bank sought to provide financial aid to the government through a group of components, some of which are represented by initiatives that contribute to revitalizing the national economy and the other hel

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 26 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The role of banking effort tests in the face of monetary credit risk and its impact on the profits and adequacy of the bank’s capital : / a case study of Sumer Commercial Bank for the period from 2015 to 2020
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The research seeks to identify the proposed scenarios to predict and ward off monetary credit risks that the bank is exposed to in the future, using the banking stress tests model, and showing their impact on capital adequacy and profitability ratio,To achieve this purpose, Sumer Commercial Bank was taken as a case study, and mathematical equations were used to extract the results. Low percentage of profits and returns, strictness in the process of granting credit and financing operations in order to reduce credit risks.

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Influence of Laser Energy on the Structural and Optical Properties of (CdO):(CoO) Thin Films Produced by Laser-Induced Plasma (LIP)
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In this work, (CdO)1-x (CoO)x thin films were prepared on glass slides by laser-induced plasma using Nd:YAG laser with (λ=1064 nm) and duration (9 ns) at different laser energies (200-500 mJ) with ratio (x=0.5), The influence of laser energy on structural and optical properties has been studied. XRD patterns show the films have a structure of polycrystalline wurtzite. As for AFM tests results for the topography of the surface of the film, where the results showed that the grain size and the average roughness increase with increasing laser energy. The optical properties of all films were also studied and the results showed that the absorption coefficient for within the wavelength range (280-1100 nm), The value of the optical power gap fo

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