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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
mathematical model for segmentation of the overall planning of puplic redemption company- ministry of industry and minerals
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Abstract

The study presents a mathematical model with a disaggregating approach to the problem of production planning of a fida Company; which belongs to the ministry of Industry. The study considers disaggregating the entire production into 3 productive families of (hydraulic cylinders, Aldblatt (dampers), connections hydraulics with each holds similar characteristics in terms of the installation cost, production time and stock cost. The Consequences are an ultimate use of the available production capacity as well as meeting the requirements of these families at a minimal cost using linear programming. Moreover, the study considers developing a Master production schedule that drives detailed material and production requi

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 01 2025
Journal Name
Jornal Of Al-muthanna For Agricultural Sciences
A Proposed Approach to Agricultural Extension in Iraq for a Better Response to the Needs of farmer’s to Address Their Challenges
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Publication Date
Wed Oct 17 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison Between the Methods Estimate Nonparametric and Semiparametric Transfer Function Model in Time Series Using Simulation
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Publication Date
Sun Mar 07 2010
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Study the Level of Service to Roadways which Leading to Basrah University
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The building of Basrah University located in a rural area at Gramat Ali, its consist of seven colleges and very high number of students, lecturers ,and employers. Therefore, the intersections which leading to university building suffer congestion at morning peak hour (8-9) A.M and evening peak hour (2-3) P.M. In this study we collected the data in intersections which leading to university building at peak hour at same time, then we had analysis this data by using the highway capacity manual (HCM) and program (HCS). Also, we collected that data in University entries with classification of vehicles according to types and number of passengers at peak hour. Then we studied the number of proposals to riddance the congestion, such as the effe

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 29 2022
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Advertisement content in the Iraqi satellite channels and their commitment to advertisement ethics.
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The problem of the study is to monitor the content presented in the Iraqi satellite channels to identify the nature of the ideas contained in these ads and to identify the values ​​carried by the creative strategies and ad campaigns that use. Where the satellite is one of the most important technological developments in the field of communications in the nineties and the ads in various forms and functions one of the contents provided by satellite channels where these channels are keen to direct their messages in particular and communication, in general, to address a certain audience and convince and influence in order to achieve certain purposes of the source Or the body from which it originates, especially those that result in an in

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 09 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Numerical Study of Optimum Configuration of Unconventional Airfoil with Steps and Rotating Cylinder for Best Aerodynamics Performance
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Numerical study of separation control on symmetrical airfoil, four digits (NACA

0012) by using rotating cylinder with double steps on its upper surface based on the computation of Reynolds-average Navier- Stokes equations was carried out to find the optimum configuration of unconventional airfoil for best aerodynamics performance. A model based on collocated Finite Volume Method was developed to solve the governing equations on a body-fitted coordinate system. A revised (k-w) model was proposed as a known turbulence model. This model was adapted to simulate the control effects of rotating cylinder. Numerical solutions were performed for flow around unconventional airfoil with cylinder to main stream velocities ratio in the range

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 01 2025
Journal Name
Al-anbar University Journal Of Law And Political Sciences
Evaluation of the Geneva Conventions of 1949 and the role of the protecting power to implement its provisions
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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2023
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Earth And Environmental Science
Effect of Vertical Boom Position of the Greenhouse Sprayer on the Penetration of Spray to the Eggplants Canopy
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Abstract<p>The research objective focuses on spraying the leaves of the plant from the top and bottom through a spraying machine designed and made of aluminum with a movable arm equipped with a nozzle holder divided into three parts and each piece contains a nozzle of the type (Flat Fan 120-C3) as the machine was tried in a greenhouse with a study of the effect of changing the positions of the upper and lower piece of the tube carrying the nozzles to four levels (A1, A2, A3, A4) and the effect of pressure change on two levels (2,4) bar and studying the effect of the previous factors on some of the characteristics of the study, Spray quality on adaxial of leaf, Spray quality on the abaxial surfac</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Wed May 22 2024
Journal Name
Scientific Reports
The use of image analysis to study the effect of moisture content on the physical properties of grains
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Abstract<p>Designing machines and equipment for post-harvest operations of agricultural products requires information about their physical properties. The aim of the work was to evaluate the possibility of introducing a new approach to predict the moisture content in bean and corn seeds based on measuring their dimensions using image analysis using artificial neural networks (ANN). Experimental tests were carried out at three levels of wet basis moisture content of seeds: 9, 13 and 17%. The analysis of the results showed a direct relationship between the wet basis moisture content and the main dimensions of the seeds. Based on the statistical analysis of the seed material, it was shown that the characteristics </p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Eatimation Availability Function Through Determination The Optimal Imperfect Preventive Maintenance Period By using Simulation
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This paper deals with the modeling of a preventive maintenance strategy applied to a single-unit system subject to random failures.

According to this policy, the system is subjected to imperfect periodic preventive maintenance restoring it to ‘as good as new’ with probability

p and leaving it at state ‘as bad as old’ with probability q. Imperfect repairs are performed following failures occurring between consecutive

preventive maintenance actions, i.e the times between failures follow a decreasing quasi-renewal process with parameter a. Considering the

average durations of the preventive and corrective maintenance actions a

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