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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 01 2013
Journal Name
Iraq Journal Of Agricultural Research
FUEL CONSUMPTION AND ECONOMY COSTS FOR MF 7140 TRACTOR AND MOLD BOARD AND DISC PLOWS IN SILT CLAY LOAM SOIL
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The experiment was conducted in Baghdad for study effect using mold board and disc plows as main factor , and second factor was three speeds 1.85 , 3.75 and 5.62 km / hr , and sub-second factor was three levels of soil moisture 21,18 and 14 % to determined data fuel consumption and economy costs machine unit in silt clay loam with depth 22cm. The experiment was a split – split plot arrangement in a randomized complete block design with three replications and statistical analysis using Least Significant Design 0.05 was used to compare the means of treatments. Mold board recorded least fuel consumption and cast fixed and variable and management and total costs of tractor and plow costs and total cost. Increasing forward speeds of the t

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 28 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
Proactive leadership and its relationship to managing the organizational error of the Iraqi Handball Federation from the point of view of the clubs participating in the Iraqi Elite League for the season 2023-2024
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This research seeks to study the role of proactive leadership as an essential element that helps all federations that lead the wheel of sports, including the Iraqi Handball Federation, so that it builds a correct environment that helps manage the organizational errors that the Handball Federation may fall into, and this in turn helps in early detection of errors and obstacles that may occur. It is likely that the Federation will fall into the process of managing and organizing the Iraqi Handball League, in addition to increasing the clubs’ ability to assist the Iraqi Handball Federation by being proactive so as not to make mistakes. The research community included the administrative bodies of the clubs participating in the Iraqi E

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 28 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The contribution of information systems to increase tax revenues: An applied research at the General Commission of Taxes
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The research aims to study the contribution of tax information systems to increase tax revenues, and to identify how efficiently used information systems currently by the tax authority and their effectiveness in the detection of irregularities by the tax payers such as the cleclaration of incorrect statements that do not show real results of their business activities or hide information from sources related to their income subject to tax, which would negatively affect the outcome of tax revenues and thus damage important sourse of the public treasury of the states resources. The data of research was collected by studying and analysing the tax information systems used by the General Commission of taxs and its branches and a number of prac

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 10 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The difference of distribution of labor force according to the economic activity of the population of Missan province
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The study showed a significant rise in the proportion of the labor force in agriculture
activity among the detailed economic activities in 1997 with a rate (%28.9), and then
decreased to (%18.8) in 2011, and this belong to the deterioration of agriculture and the
transition to the other economic activities.
2- The highest percentage of male's participation in year 1997 obtained by the activity (A),
which is represented by agriculture , where was (%30.0) while the highest percentage of
female's participation has been brought by the activity (M) which is represented education
with a rate (% 47.9). while in 2011 that the highest proportion of males' concentration
obtained by the activity (L) with a rate (%23.1) while

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2018
Journal Name
نسق
Content analysis of the chemistry book for the third intermediate grade according to habits of mind in light of the educational reform project (2061)
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Publication Date
Sat Apr 20 2024
Journal Name
International Journal Of Disabilities Sports And Health Sciences
Analytical Thinking and its Relationship to the Performance of the Simple Response Skill in Foil Weapon for Students
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The purpose of this paper is to identifying the level of analytical thinking and its relationship to the skills of response and simple response to the foil weapon for students of the College of Physical Education and Sports Sciences, University of Basra. Achieving the objectives of the research requires the use of a research method, and accordingly, the researchers used the descriptive method using the survey method .The two researchers identified the research community with the students of the third stage - College of Physical Education and Sports Sciences / University of Basra / for the academic year (2021-2022). Their number is (45) students and the two researchers chose the entire research community to represent th

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Publication Date
Wed May 12 2021
Journal Name
Indian Journal Of Forensic Medicine & Toxicology
The Effect of Defensive Exercises in the Motor Response to Develop Some Defensive Skills for Young Basketball Players
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Publication Date
Sun Jul 01 2018
Journal Name
Bulletin Of The Iraq Natural History Museum (p-issn: 1017-8678 , E-issn: 2311-9799)
KEY TO THE SPECIES OF THE ORTHETRUM NEWMAN, 1833 (ODONATA, LIBELLULIDAE) WITH A NEW RECORD SPECIES IN IRAQ
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This paper provides an identification key to the species of Orthetrum Newman, 1833 (Odonata, Libellulidae), including six species that were collected from different localities in Iraq.

 

    The species of O. anceps (Schneider, 1845) is registered as a new record in Iraq; the most important characters which are used in diagnostic key are included

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 16 2023
Journal Name
2023 14th International Renewable Energy Congress (irec)
Utilizing the Controlled Hydropower System to Harness the Collected Water in Drainage System for Power Generation
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The variety of clean energy sources has risen, involving many resources, although their fundamental principles remain consistent in terms of energy generation and pollution reduction. The using of hydropower system for energy production also has a dynamic impact in which it utilizes to harness the water for the purpose of energy production. As it is important to overcome the problem of accidents in the highway and rural areas in the case of server rainfall and flood by implementation a smart system that used for energy production. This paper aims to develop a controlled hydropower system installed in the drainage sinks allocated in highway roads used for producing. The proposed system consists of storage unit represented by pipes used for t

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 08 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Theoretical study to find the thermal stress and strain generated in the Wood silica using lasers
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In this research study theory to find the stress and emotion gases in the glass as a result of exposure to pulses of the laser beam has been the study using vehicles three major on-system axes cylindrical (r, 0, z), where I took three models of glass silica glass soda glass fused and shedtwo types of lasers where the study showed that the thermal stresses and emotions ...

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