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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 21 2024
Journal Name
Nauchi From
METAPHORICAL APPROACH TO DESCRIBING THE MAIN CHARACTER IN THE NOVEL OF THE RUSSIAN WRITER L. ULITSKAYA "SINCERELY YOUR SHURIK": MEANING AND INFLUENCE
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The article reflects the results of the analysis of the use of metaphors as one of the main means used by Lyudmila Ulitskaya when writing the novel “Sincerely Yours Shurik” to form the image of the main hero in the novel. The main purpose of the article is to consider metaphors, which helped the author to form the image of the main character Shurik in the text space through the stages of his life path, closely related to the people around him, who is always happy to be useful (hence the title "Sincerely Yours"), among which the female images of his relatives, girlfriends and others stand out as a special layer in the narrative. And in the course of the study, the following tasks were solved: the metaphors that make up the image of the

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Deposit insurance system and its role in financial security for the period (2010-2018) Study the experiences of Selected countries with reference to Iraq
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Founding a System to secure deposits and protecting the depositors is considered one of the important and exchanged subjects out there in the banking system/field in Iraq at the current time, and the reason behind the exchange and spread of this subject is due to the financial crisis of which the banking sector is suffering from and the stumbling of many banks, those factors have had led to the insecurity of the depositors and their mistrust towards banks, thus, it is necessary to create a system to secure deposits in which depositors would be compensated for the losses caused by the banks' failures. in addition, it could be a countermeasure system which maintains the banking stability, protects the rights of depositors and gains

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 25 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
HARNESSING DIGITIZATION TO ACHIEVE THE GOALS OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 2030\ EXPERIENCE OF THE EMIRATE OF DUBAI.: HARNESSING DIGITIZATION TO ACHIEVE THE GOALS OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 2030\ EXPERIENCE OF THE EMIRATE OF DUBAI.
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Experienced economic environmentRadical changes at the end of the last century and the beginning of the present century, resulting in new concepts and expectations in all aspects of economic, political, social and even behavioral.Each of these concepts is the result of rapid developments in the intangible space. Competition is no longer limited to the mere possession of tangible material resources, but because of its link to knowledge and technology content and to the comprehensive quality standards and efficient and effective policies of States. With the increasing pace of growth and interdependence among the global economies, this resulted in the birth of a new economic system led by technological development and financial liberalizati

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 31 2016
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Experimental Work to Study the Behavior of Proppant Inside the Hydraulic Fractures and the Plugging Time
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Experiments were conducted to study the behavior of the solid particles (proppant) inside the hydraulic fracture during the formation stimulation, and study the effect of the proppant concentration on the hydraulic fracturing process, which lead to bridge and screen-out conditions inside the fractures across the fracture width that restricts fracturing fluid to flow into the hydraulic fracture. The research also studies the effect of the ratio between the fracture size and the average particles diameter “proppant", on fracture bridging. In this study two ratios were considered β= 2 and 3 ,where β=Dt / Dp where: Dt= hydraulic fracture size (width) and Dp=Average particles diameter.

This work pr

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 25 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Agricultural Sciences
BREEDING POTENTIAL OF RICE GENOTYPES IN TWO AGROCLIMATIC CONDITIONS OF SULAIMANI - KURDISTAN REGION - IRAQ
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This study was aimed to investigate the genetic variability of 26 rice genotypes and evaluation at two locations in Sulaimani governorate, Gaba and Chawtan which were completely different in their environmental condition during the season of 2019. The performances of the genotypes were analyzed at both locations as well as the average of both. Simple coefficients of correlation were used to assess the grain yield components and their relationships. Path analysis was used to determine the direct and indirect effects of such components on grain yield plant-1. The genotypes were grouped based on the agro-morphological features using cluster analysis. Almost all of the traits at both locat

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 10 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The face of the pressures of life styles to Riyadh parameters and the relationship with some variables
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I noticed a researcher while working in the kindergarten that there is a group of
parameters resort to the use of different methods may be some undesirable and some
undesirable So felt researcher detection methods used parameters Riyadh in the face of the
pressures of life, being engaged in kindergarten eligibility, governmental or being married or
unmarried, as well as educational attainment for this parameter.
To achieve the objectives of the research: -
The researcher prepare a scale methods face the pressures of life of the parameters
have been confirmed the veracity of the paragraphs of the scale of the presentation to a group
of experts in this area, and extracted power discriminatory clauses scale and extra

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 20 2016
Journal Name
Al-academy
Initial evaluation to the performance of the Iraqi actors playing The role of ( Mackbeth ): مظـفر كاظم محـمد
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From 1979 to 1999 several theatricl groups had produced (Mackbeth) by shakespear which were directed by different director and the role being played by different actors. So the questions are: How did those a Iraqi actors approach that character by their performance? Did they interpret the character Truelly as the poet wanted to be. The researcher aims to find out the true performance by the actor who impersonate (mackbeth) as a wicked personality, who had un rational ambition. The researcher also aims to expose the style of acting fallowed by the Iraqi actors in that play. In chapter of review of literature, The researcher discusses the weaning and procedure of the actor performance which include characterization and transformation. He a

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 20 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The role of the external audit in improving the performance of the services provided: Applied research in the municipal directorate in ALMuthanna
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The subject of improving the performance of services provided by government institutions of the important topics at the present time because of their direct contact at the service of citizens and the increased importance of these units as a result of the diversity of activities performed by the so governments of the countries and their people made sure to pay attention to the good use of those allocated to those sectors of resources and spending in the service prescribed and manage the highest level of efficiency and effectiveness and monitor the proper management of the money used in those sectors and evaluate their performance through the Supreme Audit Institutions so that they can play their role oversight and contribute to th

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 31 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
An Evaluation of Environmental Performance According to The International Standard (ISO14001: 2015) in a Field East of Baghdad / A Case Study in the Midline Oil Company
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EMS in accordance with ISO 14001: 2015 is considered an entry point to reduce environmental impacts, especially the effects resulting from the oil industry, which is the main source of environmental pollution and waste of natural resources, since the second revision of the standard took place in September 2015. The problem of the research was manifested in the weakness in understanding the correct guidelines that must be followed in order to obtain and maintain the standard. The purpose of this research was to give a general picture of what is behind ISO14001:2015 and how it is possible to create a comprehensive base for understanding its application by seeking the gap between the actually achieved reality, standards requirements

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 20 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Proposition Framework to Application Kaizen Cost Technique of to realization Target Pricing: Practical Study in the Al-Muthanna Cement Company
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The study the problem emerged in the inability of local companies to enter the field of active competition with other companies operating in the same economic sector due to the high cost of their products, hence, the companies that want to apply this technique can effectively compete in order to achieve those objectives.

  So this study focused on the goal of reducing the cost of products by reducing the cost product to a minimum , as the study was based in its hypothesis on the ability of companies to application this technique which in turn leads to increased profits under conditions of normal working and the power available and their potential in improving the quality of its products, as well as the need for full coordina

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