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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Effect of Barman's Model on acquiring the Concepts of Fiqh of Worship among Students of Departments of Qur'anic Sciences
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The current research seeks to identify the impact of Barman's model on acquisition of the concepts of jurisprudence of worship among students of the departments of Qur'anic sciences. To achieve the research objectives, the researcher relied on the experimental method through a design with partial control by relying on two experimental groups receiving teaching by using the Barman model and a control group receives teaching through the normal method. After applying the experiment, the study reached the following results: Students of the Department of Qur’anic Sciences in general need educational programs linked to the curriculum and built on scientific foundations, according to their needs and problems (psychological, cognitive, and soc

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
Izvestiya Of Saratov University. New Series. Series: Philology. Journalism
To the Question of Internal Inflection of the Roots in Arabic and Russian (Inflected Analysis of the Root Structure)
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Publication Date
Sun Jul 29 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Assessing the Effects of Al- Rasheed Electrical Power Plant on the Quality of Tigris River, Southern of Baghdad by Canadian Water Quality Index (CCME WQI)
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This study was conducted to investigate the effects of Al-Rasheed power plant (RPP) effluents at Al-Zafaraniya city on the physical – chemical of the Tigris River by using Canadian Water Quality Index(CCME WQI).Water samples were taken  monthly at four positions  and 11parameters were analyzed . The results of this study conducted that there was a significant impact of the RPP effluents on increase of water temperature, turbidity and electrical conductivity, and there was an increase in the phosphate concentration and water hardness at station 2 and the model classified water of Tigris river as poor in winter and fair to marginal in rest season for drinking and aquatic life

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2024
Journal Name
Misan Journal For Physical Education Sciences
A comparative study of the reasons for the reluctance of female physical education teachers in “Baqubah” to participate in refereeing sports competitions according to the variable of years of service
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When searching for an answer to the following question: What are the reasons for the reluctance of female physical education teachers in secondary schools to referee sports competitions according to the variable of years of service? It was found that the research aimed to reveal the differences between the opinions of the research sample of physical education teachers in secondary schools (girls) about refereeing sports competitions according to the variable of years of service. To achieve the research goal, it is assumed that there are significant differences between the average opinions of the research sample of female teachers and their reluctance and the reasons for the differences in the practice of refereeing sports competitions accor

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 27 2018
Journal Name
Revue Académique De La Recherche Juridique
Extent and limits of the judge's power to the contract (Comparative study)
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The contractual imbalance is perceived today by the majority of the doctrine as being one of the pitfalls to the execution of the contracts. As a result, most legislations grant judges the power to intervene to restore it. Granting the judge the power to complete the contract raises the question of the extent to which the judge can obtain such power. Is it an absolute authority that is not limited? If so, is it a broad discretion in which the judge operates in his conscience, or is it a power of limited scope by specific legal texts and conventions? This is what we will try to answer in this research.

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 12 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Effect of laser energy and ablation time on the formation of aluminum nanoparticles by nanosecond laser ablation of aluminum target in ethanol
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In this work we study the influence of the laser pulse energy and ablation time on the aluminum nanoparticles productivity during nanosecond laser ablation of bulk aluminum immersed in liquid.
Aluminum nanoparticles were synthesized by pulsed laser ablation of Al targets in ethanol for 3-8 minutes using the 1064 nm wavelength of a Nd:YAG laser with energies of 300-500 mJ per pulse.The laser energy was varied between 300 and 500 mJ/pulse, whereas the ablation time was set to 5 minutes. UV-Visible absorption spectra was used for the characterization and comparison of products.

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Activating the Role of Fidelity Gruantee Insurance Policy to Ensure the Rights of the Beneficiaries: An Applied Research in National Insurance Company
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This research set to indicate the role of the opportunity cost in the overall economic development (human and social development) by selecting the most appropriate alternative for the growth of the country in exchange for sacrificing profit limits to achieve this growth and development of the country, especially in the present circumstances of the country and after studying the reality of the economic case for him, as the problem lies with don't selecting the best alternative that enhances the gross domestic product, which extends to promote overall economic development and revive the industrial and agricultural sectors, productivity is more like Impotent, versus sacrifice alternative consumption may bring more financially lucrative than

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 01 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Study of the nuclear structure of halo nuclei 23O and 24F using the two-body model
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The nuclear structure included the matter, proton and neutron densities of the ground state, the nuclear root-mean-square (rms) radii and elastic form factors of one neutron 23O and 24F halo nuclei have been studied by the two body model of  within the harmonic oscillator (HO) and Woods-Saxon (WS) radial wave functions. The calculated results show that the two body model within the HO and WS radial wave functions succeed in reproducing neutron halo in these exotic nuclei. Moreover, the Glauber model at high energy has been used to calculated the rms radii and reaction cross section of these nuclei.

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
A Stochastic Differential Equations Model for the Spread of Coronavirus COVID-19): The Case of Iraq
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In this paper, we model the spread of coronavirus (COVID -19) by introducing stochasticity into the deterministic differential equation susceptible  -infected-recovered (SIR model). The stochastic SIR dynamics are expressed using Itô's formula. We then prove that this stochastic SIR has a unique global positive solution I(t).The main aim of this article is to study the spread of coronavirus COVID-19 in Iraq from 13/8/2020 to 13/9/2020. Our results provide a new insight into this issue, showing that the introduction of stochastic noise into the  deterministic model for the spread of COVID-19 can cause the disease to die out, in scenarios where deterministic models predict disease persistence. These results were also clearly ill

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 07 2010
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Study of the properties of Ru-isotopes using the proton-neutron interacting boson model (IBM-2)
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The proton-neutron interacting boson model (IBM-2) has been used to make a schematic study of the Ruthenium ( ) isotopes of mass region around with and . For each isotope of the values of the IBM-2 Hamiltonian parameters, which yield an acceptable results for excitation energies in comparison with those of experimental data, have been determined. Fixed values of the effective charges ( ) and of the proton and neutron g factors ( and ) have been chosen for all isotopes under study. The calculated electric quadrupole moments of state, transitions, the magnetic dipole moments transitions and mixing ratios are in reasonable agreement with the experimental data.

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