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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 01 2016
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
A Semiotic Approach to the Analysis of the News Story
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This study attempts to provide an approach analysis for the news, depending on the bases and principles which conceptuality semiotic researchers of this field first of them «A. J. Gremas» for the theory of «narrative discourse analysis», to more clarify we tried to apply it on a published press- news, to concludes the most important steps and methods that are necessary to follows gain more understanding of the press- news.

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 23 2023
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The concept of justice and its relationship to the law
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Any person, regardless of his location in the air, whether he was kidnapped or trained, and then he performs a certain work, believes that his work is in vain, and by God, his deeds. I wonder if those who hold him in the first place will be safe in good form. He said that the essence of justice in the story is the story:

These are given the meaning we have fought in the fact that each group of. He went beyond creating a group of blocs, sects, and parties. If justice indicated one meaning, these relationships between people and peace would diminish. In fact, justice has only one concept, but there are several associations with it in the field of divorced one of these synonyms. However, the variation in racist drums in the encounte

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 25 2025
Journal Name
Al-mansour Journal
The Multi-Period Probabilistic Inventory Model Applied at the General Company for Leather Industries
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In this research, the multi-period probabilistic inventory model will be applied to the stores of raw materials used in the leather industry at the General Company for Leather Industries. The raw materials are:Natural leather includes cowhide, whether imported or local, buffalo leather, lamb leather, goat skin, chamois (raw materials made from natural leather), polished leather (raw materials made from natural leather), artificial leather (skai), supplements which include: (cuffs - Clocks - hands - pockets), and threads.This model was built after testing and determining the distribution of demand during the supply period (waiting period) for each material and completely independently from the rest of the materials, as none of the above mate

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 04 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The possibility of adopting strategic management accounting techniques to increase competitiveness Iraqi economic units in light of the variables of the contemporary business environment.
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The accession of countries to the World Trade Agreement and the openness of markets to each other without restrictions led to the emergence of the philosophy of "a world without borders and business units without countries", which required adapting the modern business environment to that philosophy, which is considered as objectives for the activities of the units that must be implemented in order to achieve competition. The objective of the units has changed from making profit to meeting the desires of customers, which is what imposed a new role for management accounting as a field of knowledge renewed in it visions of competitiveness between units. Because of the increasing needs for information in light of environmental change

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Publication Date
Tue Apr 01 2025
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Earth And Environmental Science
Changing in the Response of Maize Genotypes to Sowing Dates
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Abstract<p>A field experiment was carried out in the Field Crops Department at the College of Agricultural Engineering Sciences-University of Baghdad for the autumn season 2023, with the goal of evaluating and performance of various genotypes of maize under different sowing dates, and the study included (MgW16, Nad H965, Nad it 706, Nad it 2525) with four single crosses (2 × 1), (3 × 1), (4 ×1), (3× 2) and four three way crosses (3×2 × 1),(4×2 × 1), (4×3 × 1), (Nad it 25 × 3 × 1) and four synthetic varities (Nad H25 × 3 ×2 ×1), (Baghdad), Al-Ezz and Tigris. The genotypes are planted with three agricultural dates (10, 20 and 30 July) and are compared according to the randomized com</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Mon Nov 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Numerical Study for the Tube Rotation Effect on Melting Process in Shell and Tube Latent Heat Energy Storage LHES System
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Although renewable energy systems have become an interesting global issue, it is not continuous either daily or seasonally. Latent heat energy storage (LHES) is one of the suitable solutions for this problem. LHES becomes a basic element in renewable energy systems. LHES compensate for the energy lack when these systems are at low production conditions. The present work considered a shell and tube LHES for numerical investigation of the tube rotation influence on the melting process. The simulation and calculations were carried out using ANSYS Fluent software. Paraffin wax represents the phase change material (PCM) in this work, while water was selected to be the heat transfer fluid (HTF). The calculations were carried o

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Proposal of Using Principle of Maximizing Entropy of Generalized Gamma Distribution to Estimate the Survival probabilities of the Population in Iraq
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In this research we been estimated the survival function for data suffer from the disturbances and confusion of Iraq Household Socio-Economic Survey: IHSES II 2012 , to data from a five-year age groups follow the distribution of the Generalized Gamma: GG. It had been used two methods for the purposes of estimating and fitting which is the way the Principle of Maximizing Entropy: POME, and method of booting to nonparametric smoothing function for Kernel, to overcome the mathematical problems plaguing integrals contained in this distribution in particular of the integration of the incomplete gamma function, along with the use of traditional way in which is the Maximum Likelihood: ML. Where the comparison on the basis of the method of the Cen

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Al-rafidain University College For Sciences ( Print Issn: 1681-6870 ,online Issn: 2790-2293 )
The Use of Logistic Regression Model in Estimating the Probability of Being Affected By Breast Cancer Based On the Levels of Interleukins and Cancer Marker CA15-3
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Breast cancer has got much attention in the recent years as it is a one of the complex diseases that can threaten people lives. It can be determined from the levels of secreted proteins in the blood. In this project, we developed a method of finding a threshold to classify the probability of being affected by it in a population based on the levels of the related proteins in relatively small case-control samples. We applied our method to simulated and real data. The results showed that the method we used was accurate in estimating the probability of being diseased in both simulation and real data. Moreover, we were able to calculate the sensitivity and specificity under the null hypothesis of our research question of being diseased o

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The poetry attributed to The Islamic orthodox caliphs
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The Islamic orthodox caliphs had a great importance in the history of Arabs in
particular, and of Muslims in general.
Some attributed poetry to them. This issue to see whether such an attribution is correct
or not.
This research tried to deal objectively with this poetry .it discussed the topic,
exploring the scholars’ opinions about poetry attributed to the Islamic orthodox
Caliphs, stating their dispute : some of them agreed while others rejected the
attribution.
The research adopted the opinon that had rejected for reasons stated in the
research, of them: the weakness of poetry and its dealing with unimportant things, for
example, the caliph Omar composed verses about a new garment worn by him.
Is it

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 06 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Management using the Six Sigma approach to cost rationalization of activities : Application in the Iraqi mechanical carpet factory
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The textile industries play a prominent role in reviving the national economy, but they are currently suffering from several problems, including the high costs of their activities, the low quality of their production processes, and accordingly, the hexagonal diffraction approach came to help analyze production activities to determine which of them are the most expensive and do not have a benefit or cost greater than Its benefit as a result of waste and losses that accompany its implementation. And by applying to the Iraqi mechanical carpet factory, the research reached several conclusions, the most important of which is the presence of several sources of waste and loss, such as activities and operations that do not add value, whi

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