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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 14 2021
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences (pen)
Estimation of domestic urban electricity consumption: A case study of Baghdad, Iraq
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Electricity consumption for household purposes in urban areas widely affects the general urban consumption compared to other commercial and industrial uses, as household electricity consumption is affected by many factors related to the physical aspects of the residential area such as temperature, housing unit area, and coverage ratio, as well as social and economic factors such as family size and income, to reach the extent of the influence of each of the above factors on the amount of electricity consumed for residential uses, a selected sample of a residential area in the city of Baghdad was studied and a field survey conducted of the characteristics of that sample and the results analyzed and modeled statistically in relation to the amo

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Simulation of the Entrance to the Escape of the Flood Branching from the Diyala River
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The Diyala River is considered the third most important river in Iraq. However, in the recent period, Diyala Governorate has been subject to several floods. This study aims to simulate an efficient labyrinth weir at the flood escape entrance branching from the Diyala River to reach the best entrance through which the flood waves can pass safely. The discharge coefficient was calculated laboratory for five types of trapezoidal side labyrinth weirs with different sidewall angles. Results showed that the coefficient discharge for the trapezoidal labyrinth side weir with an angle of the sidewall is 75ᵒ and has a discharge coefficient greater than the rest of the labyrinth side weirs. The second part of this study is valida

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
Izvestiya Of Saratov University. New Series. Series: Philology. Journalism
To the Question of Internal Inflection of the Roots in Arabic and Russian (Inflected Analysis of the Root Structure)
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Publication Date
Tue Mar 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The reality of bee breeding in Iraq and ways to develop it
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This study was (the reality of beekeeping in Iraq and ways of developing them) as a research project in the branch of production is important branches of the productivity of the agricultural sector in Iraq, and the importance of this section, productive (beekeeping) for the agricultural sector in his contribution to increase the vegetable production and improve the quality and the various Classes of types, through its active role in the pollination of plants and indirectly (when the bees to move between plants to collect nectar and pollen grains), which contributes to reduce the losses in plant production and raise the rate of productivity per donum of various agricultural crops.

On the other hand play a

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Activating the Role of Fidelity Gruantee Insurance Policy to Ensure the Rights of the Beneficiaries: An Applied Research in National Insurance Company
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This research set to indicate the role of the opportunity cost in the overall economic development (human and social development) by selecting the most appropriate alternative for the growth of the country in exchange for sacrificing profit limits to achieve this growth and development of the country, especially in the present circumstances of the country and after studying the reality of the economic case for him, as the problem lies with don't selecting the best alternative that enhances the gross domestic product, which extends to promote overall economic development and revive the industrial and agricultural sectors, productivity is more like Impotent, versus sacrifice alternative consumption may bring more financially lucrative than

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 15 2020
Journal Name
Al-academy
Semiotic Transformations in Scenography of the Iraqi Theatre Show "The Play of Ali Al-Wardi and his Opponent- A Model": باسم محمد احمد حسن
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      Semiotics has been through wide experiences in various human sciences, especially in the fields of poetry, novel and myths. But its interest in the theatre and drama was much less and unique despite the richness of the theatrical connection as it is a probable field for the semiotic investigation which may require the semiotic approach in dealing with the theatrical and dramatic show during the two processes of: structural construction and deconstruction starting from a set of overlapping and interconnected texts inside the show, which can be limited in the text, then it would be difficult to semiotically cover all these complex and tricky texts. The theatre in its structural and aesthetic construction is c

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of estimations methods of the entropy function to the random coefficients for two models: the general regression and swamy of the panel data
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In this study, we focused on the random coefficient estimation of the general regression and Swamy models of panel data. By using this type of data, the data give a better chance of obtaining a better method and better indicators. Entropy's methods have been used to estimate random coefficients for the general regression and Swamy of the panel data which were presented in two ways: the first represents the maximum dual Entropy and the second is general maximum Entropy in which a comparison between them have been done by using simulation to choose the optimal methods.

The results have been compared by using mean squares error and mean absolute percentage error to different cases in term of correlation valu

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 20 2022
Journal Name
Bulletin Of The Iraq Natural History Museum (p-issn: 1017-8678 , E-issn: 2311-9799)
DESCRIPTION OF THE PREDATOR BUSH CRICKET, SAGA EPHIPPIGERA FISCHER VON WALDHEIM, 1846 (ORTHOPTERA, TETTIGONIIDAE) FROM ERBIL PROVINCE, KURDISTAN REGION- IRAQ
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The predatory bush crickets Saga ephippigera Fischer Von Waldheim, 1846 is the largest Iraqi orthopterans and one of the most active and successful predators in the Kurdistan region. The nymphs and adults prey on all the stages of various species of insects. Twelve adult specimens were collected from Erbil Province during May 2018 and June 2021. Morphological structures of the adult insects were described and illustrated in details; important taxonomic characteristics of body regions with their appendages were chosen; and the results indicated the importance of morphological characteristics which confirmed the identification of this species correctly.

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Teaching Practices of Faculty Members in Northern Border University According to the Brain-Based Learning Theory
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The present study aims to identify the most and the least common teaching practices among faculty members in Northern Border University according to brain-based learning theory, as well as to identify the effect of sex, qualifications, faculty type, and years of experiences in teaching practices. The study sample consisted of (199) participants divided into 100 males and 99 females. The study results revealed that the most teaching practice among the study sample was ‘I am trying to create an Environment of encouragement and support within the classroom which found to be (4.4623). As for the least teaching practice was ‘I use a natural musical sounds to create student's mood to learn’ found to be (2.2965). The study results also in

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 01 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Study of the proton halo structure of nuclei 23Al and 27P using the binary cluster model
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The neutron, proton, and matter densities of the ground state of the proton-rich 23Al and 27P exotic nuclei were analyzed using the binary cluster model (BCM). Two density parameterizations were used in BCM calculations namely; Gaussian (GS) and harmonic oscillator (HO) parameterizations. According to the calculated results, it found that the BCM gives a good description of the nuclear structure for above proton-rich exotic nuclei. The elastic form factors of the unstable 23Al and 27P exotic nuclei and those of their stable isotopes 27Al and 31P are studied by the plane-wave Born approximation. The main difference between the elastic form factors of unstable nuclei and the

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