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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 02 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The effectiveness of instructional design according to whole brain theory of Herman in the achievement of chemistry of the fifth scientific students
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The research aimed to identify the effectiveness of instructional design according to whole brain theory of Herman in the achievement of chemistry at the fifth scientific students at a secondary school of the General Directorate for Educational in Diyala / Baladruz in Iraq. The research sample Consisted of (57 student, (29) students as experimental group studied according to instructional design strategies for whole brain theory of Herrmann and (28) a student as a control group studied by the usual way for two semesters, a prepared achievement test as article and objective type of multiple choice, the coefficient stability of alpha-Cronbach equation reached (0.86). The research Results showed the presence of a statistically significant d

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 27 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Genetic Polymorphism in TNF-α Promoter Region: Its Association with Severity and Susceptibility to Rheumatoid Arthritis in Iraqi Patients with Active Disease
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Objectives: To study the prevalence of rs1799964 (-1031 T/C) and rs361525 (- 238 G/A) SNPs and their effect on the disease activity, severity, and cytokines production in newly diagnosed Iraqi rheumatoid arthritis patients. Patients and Methods: sixty-three patients were diagnosed by a specialist physician while attending the rheumatology unit and twenty control participated. The inflammatory markers were measured and PCR amplification and sequencing were performed to demonstrate TNF-α SNPs. Results: Regarding (-1031 C/T) SNP, the TT genotype and allele C were significantly present in the controls, and the CT genotype was distributed significantly in the patients. The TT genotype was mostly distributed in the mild-moder

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 15 2015
Journal Name
Asian Journal Of Poultry Science
Association of Insulin-Like Growth Factor-1 Gene Polymorphism at 279 Position of the 5’UTR Region with Body Weight Traits in Broiler Chicken
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insulin-like Growth Factor 1 (IGF-1) gene has been described in several studies as a candidate gene for growth. The present study attempts to identify associations between body weight traits and polymorphisms at 279 position of 5'UTR flanking region of IGF-1 gene in broiler chickens. Three hundred broiler chickens from two breeds (Cobb 500 and Hubbard F-15) were used in this study. A single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) at 279 position of 5'UTR region of the IGF-1 gene was identified in 20.6 and 60.3% of Cobb 500 and Hubbard F-15, respectively, using the PCR-RFLP technique. Allele frequencies were 83.87 and 42.80% for the T allele and 16.13 and 57.20% for the C allele in Cobb500 and Hubbard-15 breeds, respectively. Genotype frequencies were

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of some methods for estimating the parameters of the binary logistic regression model using the genetic algorithm with practical application
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Abstract

   Suffering the human because of pressure normal life of exposure to several types of heart disease as a result of due to different factors. Therefore, and in order to find out the case of a death whether or not, are to be modeled using binary logistic regression model

    In this research used, one of the most important models of nonlinear regression models extensive use in the modeling of applications statistical, in terms of heart disease which is the binary logistic regression model. and then estimating the parameters of this model using the statistical estimation methods, another problem will be appears in estimating its parameters, as well as when the numbe

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The economic implications of the housing problem In Iraq and ways to address it - a theoretical research
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The problem of housing in Iraq is a long-rooted and rooted problem, and it needs a great effort to find out its causes and thus give essential points that contribute to alleviating and addressing it, and it is worth noting that research into the housing problem and the housing sector in Iraq is not done in isolation from other sectors and studies. As well as the economic policies pursued and the social and political conditions. It is known that the Iraqi economy is a unilateral (rentier) economy, that is, it depends almost entirely on exporting oil and obtaining revenues, and that the economic decision and economic policies followed in Iraq are greatly affected by several factors, including the economic, social and political fact

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 01 2014
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and its role in the evolution of the Kurdish issue in Turkey from 1991 to 2013
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حزب العمال الكردستاني ودوره في تطوير القضية الكردية في تركيا من 1991-2013

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 29 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Idealism in Geoffrey Chaucer’s“General Prologue” to The Canterbury Tales
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The aim of this research is to analyze Chaucer’s use of idealism in the “General Prologue” to The Canterbury Tales. Idealism is defined as a belief that ideals are the only true reality. Therefore, it stresses the mental or spiritual over the material objects.Idealism is widely used during the Middle Ages, especially by Geoffrey Chaucer, who is England’s most famous poet. The Canterbury Tales  is his masterpiece. This Research analyzes ideals in the “General Prologue” toThe Canterbury Tales.

The conclusion of the present research shows that Chaucer uses idealism to criticize the follies and weaknesses of his age.Besides, he finds that adherence to ideal values is a means to cultivate morality leading to perfectio

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 14 2021
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences (pen)
Estimation of domestic urban electricity consumption: A case study of Baghdad, Iraq
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Electricity consumption for household purposes in urban areas widely affects the general urban consumption compared to other commercial and industrial uses, as household electricity consumption is affected by many factors related to the physical aspects of the residential area such as temperature, housing unit area, and coverage ratio, as well as social and economic factors such as family size and income, to reach the extent of the influence of each of the above factors on the amount of electricity consumed for residential uses, a selected sample of a residential area in the city of Baghdad was studied and a field survey conducted of the characteristics of that sample and the results analyzed and modeled statistically in relation to the amo

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2017
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
The Media Awareness for Students to Exceed the Terrorist Acts
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      The research aims at showing the media awareness for Students, especially for the students of the preparatory schools through their following the mass media in forming the cultural, educational and political database. It also aims at building a content and prospectives that make them a wide awake stratum that safeguard the society which has faced huge effects of terrorist actions.

                 Furthermore, it aims at knowing to what extent that students have been acquainted with the printed and electronic newspapers. Finally, it aims at knowing to what extent that they are content with the mass media in covering and

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
THE role of Organizational flexibility and its impact in responding to achieve higher performance requirements; Field research in the General Directorate of Municipalities.
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Municipalities.

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to measure the impact of regulatory flexibility dimensions (formal and authoritarian procedures) to achieve response to the requirements of high performance dimensions (the effective recruitment, intensive training, motivate employees, participation of workers) in the general municipal Directorate as one of the directorates of the Ministry of Municipalities and Public Works. For the purpose of this measure it has been selected sample composed of 88 individuals from the research community represents the levels of assistant general manager of department heads and managers of people and some of the staff to answer the questionnaire prepared for the purpose Hama

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