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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Comparison of Some Suggested Estimators Based on Differencing Technique in the Partial Linear Model Using Simulation
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In this paper new methods were presented based on technique of differences which is the difference- based modified jackknifed generalized ridge regression estimator(DMJGR) and difference-based generalized  jackknifed ridge regression estimator(DGJR), in estimating the parameters of linear part of the partially linear model. As for the nonlinear part represented by the nonparametric function, it was estimated using Nadaraya Watson smoother. The partially linear model was compared using these proposed methods with other estimators based on differencing technique through the MSE comparison criterion in simulation study.

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 15 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Warning Messages of Jeanne DuPrau’sThe City of Ember to the World with Reference to Gil Kenan’s Film Adaptation: The Theory of Conspiracy
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The City of Ember is a very interesting novel that is although intended for young readers, have so many layers and messages that are misunderstood. In this research, both the novel and the film adaptation are studied with the intent to decode the warning messages that the novelist and the director tried to introduce to the audience. The research studies four vital messages; the first message is that history repeats itself for the novel has many allusions to the history of Jews and their painful holocaust and even goes back in history the days of Moses and the Exodus, the second message tackles the conspiracy theory that states nothing happens by accident and that everything is planned and connected hence comes the third message

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2016
Journal Name
Al.qadisiya Journal For The Sciences Of Physical Education
Comparing self-learning associated with the model and learning reverse fashioned way of partial way to learn Olympic lifts for beginners
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Abstract The purpose of this study, teach the art of performing Olympic lifts (snatch and, clean and jerk) using the two methods are instructional (self-learning associated with the model) and (reverse style of partial way). Identify the effectiveness of these methods in learning the art of performance and style of the best Olympic lifting in the learning and retention of novice for Olympic lifts. The research sample consisted of 16 lifters were selected purposively representing specialist center for the care of athletic talent to weightlifting for ages 14 years. The sample was divided into two experimental, Each group (8) eight weightlifters. The experimental group used the style of the first self-learning associated with the m

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 04 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Using Regression Analysis as Analytical Procedure to Facilitate the Decision-Making Process in The Tax Audit: An Applied Research in the General Commission of Taxes
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This research aims to clarify the advantages of using the regression method as analytical procedure in the tax audit to reducing the examination cost , time, effort, human and material resources, and represents an applied study in the General Commission of taxes. In order to achieve its objectives the research has used in the theoretical side the descriptive approach (analytical), and in the practical side regression method has been applied to the research sample represented by the soft drinks company that is subject to the tax settlement for the year 2014, where the value of sales has been verified by using the regression method without conductinga comprehensive examination. The most important results of the research indicate that the r

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 05 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Basic Education
The impact of cross-training in the development of the skills of the crushing blow and the blow-to-blow stroke under the age of 17
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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Use The moment method to Estimate the Reliability Function Of The Data Of Truncated Skew Normal Distribution
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The Estimation Of The Reliability Function Depends On The Accuracy Of The Data Used To Estimate The Parameters Of The Probability distribution, and Because Some Data Suffer from a Skew in their Data to Estimate the Parameters and Calculate the Reliability Function in light of the Presence of Some Skew in the Data, there must be a Distribution that has flexibility in dealing with that Data. As in the data of Diyala Company for Electrical Industries, as it was observed that there was a positive twisting in the data collected from the Power and Machinery Department, which required distribution that deals with those data and searches for methods that accommodate this problem and lead to accurate estimates of the reliability function,

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 30 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The Dissipation of the Kinetic Energy for 2D Bounded Flow by Using Moment-Based Boundary Conditions with Burnett Order Stress for LBM
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     In this article, the lattice Boltzmann method with two relaxation time  (TRT)  for the  D2Q9 model is used to investigate numerical results for 2D flow. The problem is performed to show the dissipation of the kinetic energy rate and its relationship with the enstrophy growth for 2D dipole wall collision. The investigation is carried out for normal collision and oblique incidents at an angle of . We prove the accuracy of moment -based boundary conditions with slip and Navier-Maxwell slip conditions to simulate this flow. These conditions are under the effect of Burnett-order stress conditions that are consistent with the discrete Boltzmann equation. Stable results are found by using this kind of boundary condition where d

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 20 2025
Journal Name
Tikrit Journal Of Engineering Sciences
Effect of Different Compressor Speeds on the Energy and Exergy of an Automobile Air-Conditioner Using R134a in the Absence and Presence of a Liquid-Suction Heat Exchanger
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Refrigerant R134a has been widely utilized in automotive air conditioning systems (AACSs); R134a has a high global warming potential (GWP) of 1430 despite having zero ozone depletion potential (ODP). Coming refrigeration systems must include refrigerants with low GWP and zero ODP. The aim of this experimental study is to evaluate the thermal performance of an (AAC) with different values of compressor speeds, i.e., (1000, 1700, and 2400 rpm) and two thermal loads, i.e., (500 and 1000 Watt) with the absence and presence of liquid suction heat exchanger (LSHX) using R134a. The results showed that adding LSHX enhanced the COP cycle by 7.18%, 10.7%, and 3.09% for the first, second, and third speed, respectively, at 500 Watt, while the en

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 01 2015
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
University Youth Attitudes towards Electronic Advertisements and their Relationship to the Behavior of the Consumer A Field Study of a Sample of Students of the College of Mass-Communication / University of Baghdad as a Model
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This research aims at identifying the communicative habits and content reflections on the communication process, especially the young audience which is one of the main group for whom the announcements are made. Because young people face life with passion and aspiration making them respond to each effect used by the media in the design of the advertising using all the effective techniques, attractive methods for young children like depending on drama, technical tricks, music and logos easily to be remembered and responded to the desires of the young in their entertainment. This research also aims at identifying the impact of the internet as a channel of commercial advertising on the purchasing behavior of young people at the universities

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 15 2022
Journal Name
Al-academy
color methodology to Re-reading the musical notes
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many painters tried to mix colors with Music by direct employment through colorful musical pieces or the use of multiple instruments and techniques , or vice versa, including the French artist )Robert Stroben(, he transferred the piece of music to be depicted on the painting and worked on the tones of music (Johann Sebastian Bach) by dropping the color on the lines of the musical scale, for example (the C tone) ranging from brown to red ( Tone La A) from gray to orange, and so on, the presence of links and similarity factors between the world of music and the world of colors facilitated the process of linking musical notes with colors, the most famous of which was presented by the world (Newton) in the circle of basic colors and linking

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