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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A comparison of the Semiparametric Estimators model smoothing methods different using
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In this paper, we made comparison among different parametric ,nonparametric and semiparametric estimators for partial linear regression model users parametric represented by ols and nonparametric methods represented by cubic smoothing spline estimator and Nadaraya-Watson estimator, we study three nonparametric regression models and samples sizes  n=40,60,100,variances used σ2=0.5,1,1.5 the results  for the first model show that N.W estimator for partial linear regression model(PLM) is the best followed the cubic smoothing spline estimator for (PLM),and the results of the second and the third model show that the best estimator is C.S.S.followed by N.W estimator for (PLM) ,the

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 20 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
History of Local Reprimands in the Northwest Caucasus from Ancient Times to the 19th century
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Ubikh is one of the most important tribes of the Northwest Caucasus and has a long history. Naturally, rebukes are an integral part of the Caucasus region. Their people were able to confront the Russian invasion of their lands like the rest of the Caucasus tribes to defend their existence, freedom and the right to build their independent state, but they were not able to resist the great Russian military progress they achieved on all sides. For the territory that belonged to Persia and the Ottoman Empire and ended the resistance of the Meridian movement in the Northeast Caucasus, the Russians left only the weak resistance of the tribes of the Northwest Caucasus led by the rebuke after Russia managed to eliminate all resistance movements i

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 11 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
The First Record of Three Monogenean Species of Gyrodactylus in Iraq from Gills of Some Fishes in Tigris River, Al-Shawwaka Region, Baghdad Province
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    Three monogenean species of the genus Gyrodactylus viz. G. cotti Roman, 1956 on gills of Planiliza abu, G. mikailovi Ergens & Ibragimov, 1976 on gills of Chondrostoma regium and G. prostae Ergens, 1963 on gills of Alburnus caeruleus were recorded from Tigris river at Al-Shawwaka region, Baghdad. The description and measurements of these parasites as well as their illustrations where given. All these parasites are recorded here for the first time in Iraq.  
 

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 14 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Psychological alienation in relation to the motivation of achievement among incoming teachers in the schools of Dhofar Governorate
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The present study aimed at identifying the level of psychological alienation and motivation of achievement among the incoming teachers in the schools of Dhofar Governorate in the Sultanate of Oman a well as to explore the correlation relationship between psychological alienation and motivation of achievement. The sample of the study consisted of (238) expatriated teachers from Al- Dhofar Governorate in Oman who were selected randomly. The psychological alienation scale and the motivation of achievement scale for teachers were used by researchers and were conducted electronically by google forms. The data were processed statistically using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS). The results showed that the level of psy

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Detection of selected cells in multi choice sheets
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Publication Date
Mon Nov 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The correlation between identifying needs and choosing the appropriate productive art for use / primary health care centers as an example
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        The purpose of the study is to identify the need to improve health services in Iraq by determining the efficiency of service in health care centres and working on exploiting limited resources through choosing the most efficient technological art represented by using precast concrete technology to fill the shortfall in the establishment health centres for primary care and to explain the impact of this on saving resources, time, and increasing production efficiency. To achieve this, the quantitative analysis adopted as a methodology in the study by determining the size of the deficit in the infrastructure of health centres for primary care according to the standard of a he

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The efficiency of Using Attribute and Performance- Based Activity Methods to Raise the Level of Control Deviation A field study in Jaber Bin Hayyan Factory
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Cost is the essence of any production process for it is one of the requirements for the continuity of activities so as to increase the profitability of the economic unit and to support the competitive situation in the market. Therefore, there should be an overall control to reduce the cost without compromising the product quality; to achieve this, the management should have detailed credible and reliable information about the cost to be measured, collected, understood and to analyze the causes for the spread of deviations and obstacles the management faces, and to search for the factors that trigger the emergence of these deviations and obstacles

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 15 2022
Journal Name
Alustath Journal For Human And Social Sciences
The Degree of Commitment of Social Workers Who Work in the ‎Ministry of Social Development to the Professional Principles of ‎the Social Work Profession under the Corona Pandemic
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The study aimed to identify the degree of commitment of social workers working in the Ministry of Social Development to the professional principles of the social work profession in light of the Corona pandemic, and the sample consisted of (135) specialists. The study reached several results: the most important one is  the degree of commitment of social workers working in the Ministry of Social Development to the professional principles of social service was great. The other result is the absence of statistically significant differences according to the variables of sex and place of residence. Moreover, the results also showed the absence of statistically significant differences in the principles of ( Acceptance o

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 16 2025
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Objectivity of the Liaison in the Iraqi Media Institutions (Al Mada, Azzaman, Al-Sumaria, Aletejah Instituations & Satalite Channels as a Model)
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Objectivity is the common denominator between the qualities and elements of a news story that is described as the mother of journalistic arts. When there is doubt about the authenticity of the information contained in the press, whether readable, audible or visual, it means that there is an imbalance in objectivity. When, furthermore, there is an incorrect and intentional use of words in order to influence readers, it means to move away from objectivity as a necessary element in the success of the media institution; and the success of its editorial material.

But the objective interpretation may take several dimensions to the liaison. For the purpose of grasping the interpretation of objectivity among those liaisons working in the

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 24 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Elastic Electron Scattering From 52Cr, 58Fe and 64Ni Nuclei in the Framework of the Coherent Density Fluctuation Model
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Coherent density fluctuation model (CDFM) has been used to calculate the
proton momentum distributions (PMD) and elastic electron scattering form factors,
F(q), of the ground state for some even mass nuclei of fp-shell, such as 52Cr, 58Fe and
64Ni nuclei. Both of the PMD and F(q) have been expressed in terms of the weight
function ( ( ) )
2
f x which is determined by means of the charge density
distributions (CDD) of the nuclei and determined from theory and experiment. The
feature of the long-tail behavior at high momentum region of the PMD’s has been
obtained by both the theoretical and experimental weight functions. The calculated
form factors of these nuclei are in reasonable agreement with those of th

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